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Jeff Zimmerman’s 2018 Bold Predictions

After an crushing last season’s BOLD predictions, it’s time to regress with some outlandish claims focusing on their average draft position (ADP).

#1 Dinelson Lamet will end the season as a top-30 pitcher.

Lamet has two factors pointing him having a great 2018 season. First, he posted a 10.9 K/9 in 114 major league innings. Additionally, he made 29 starts between Triple-A and the majors. If he has just a little bit of batted ball luck (and hopefully develop a third pitch), his production will soar.

#2 Gregory Bird will outproduce Aaron Judge.

I’m both high on Bird and low on Judge. With Bird, he’s finally healthy and will join Judge in the middle of the Yankees lineup. I don’t believe in Judge’s high BABIP and batting average. I think both will sink quite a bit dragging down both is RBI and Runs totals.

#3 Adrian Beltre will outperform his ADP (158) and be a top-75 player.

I have no idea how Beltre is going in the so late in drafts. While dealing with injuries last season, he hit 17 HR with a .312 AVG in 389 PA. I’d rather have Beltre over Shaw who is going around pick 90. I’ll wait four to five rounds and own Beltre.

#4 Luis Severino will outproduce all but one of the top-4 starters. Read the rest of this entry »


I Happily Paid $56 For Mike Trout in Tout Wars

This past weekend I was again honored to be asked to participate in the 15-team Tout Wars auction held bright and early on Saturday morning at Staten Island’s Richmond County Ballpark. After a short ferry ride, I caught up with old friends and then auction began. Like last year, it rolled at a fast pace and ended in about four hours later. While my final team’s roster doesn’t resemble any team I’ve previously rostered, it has a nice chance to compete.

Prep

The biggest decision I made when constructing this team happened months ago when I looked back at my 2017 fantasy teams and found my pitching way outperforming my hitting.

To help offset this final imbalance, I decided to go with a 70%/30% hitter/pitcher split. Over the past few seasons, this league’s split has been 67.8%/32.2%. The difference works out to a $6 difference. I am not married to reaching this exact mix at the auction but it gives me a general guideline to follow. It had a side effect I didn’t fully understand but the anomaly ended up driving my auction.

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Spring Training Notes (3/12/18) Diaz, Bush, Montgomery, & South Side Closer

Indians

The Indians have no desire to raise Yandy Diaz’s launch angle.

But the chanting for Diaz to put a few degrees of lift into his swing is not coming from manager Terry Francona and the Indians.

“The best way to mess him up is to try to get him to pull the ball in the air,” Francona told reporters in Goodyear, Ariz. “He won’t be the hitter he is. We know that.”

Diaz’s body builder’s physique is trapped inside the swing of a No.2 hitter. In Cuba, where he learned to play, he usually hit second. His right-handed swing is grooved to hit the hole between first and second base to advance the runner on first.

But no matter how hard Diaz hits the ball, the infield shift has largely neutralized his swing. Last season Diaz hit .263 (41-for-156) with no homers and 13 RBI. Nine of his hits went for extra bases.

Well great. No improvement here.

Rangers

Matt Bush is headed back to the bullpen after attempting starting.

Instead, Bush will be used as a reliever who will serve as a “bridge” in the middle innings and can pitch one-plus innings. Bush has been used strictly as a reliever in his first two seasons with the Rangers.

“We just feel that Matt is way too important to us in the bullpen,” manager Jeff Banister said. “Just his set of pitches, how he pitches, so we feel like that’s the best move for him as well as us as a team trying to structure the bullpen the best way we possibly can going forward.”

Bush may still be a nice pickup as a cheap middle reliever with a 100 IP workload.

White Sox

The White Sox are going to keep everyone guessing who’s going to be their opening-day closer.

Even with the experienced pair of Soria and Jones in tow, Renteria didn’t want to limit his closing options. He mentioned returning White Sox Juan Minaya, Gregory Infante and Danny Farquhar as players who saw high-leverage time last season. Chicago also has non-roster options such as Bruce Rondon, Jeanmar Gomez, Robbie Ross Jr. and has Luis Avilan — also acquired in the Soria trade — as options on the back end.

“I don’t want to tie myself down and say we won’t ultimately have a Minaya closing out a ballgame or an Infante or a Farquhar or whoever it might be in a particular situation, but I do know that those two young men have experience and have done it,” Renteria said. “Nate’s coming back healthy, capable of doing a lot of different things. Fortunately for us, our flexibility has improved. Through either experience, we’re gaining from the guys we have that fell into that role last year and the two men that are with us in Joakim and Nate.

I’m only going to target either Nate Jones or Joakim Soria. They’re projected for the best stats (about 10 K/9 and 3.50 ERA). I’ll prefer Jones and his 0.00 ERA with Soria posting one at 18.00 ERA. I’m betting on the White Sox playing the hot hand.

Yankees

Unless he completely falls apart, Jordan Montgomery will be given a Yankees rotation spot to start the season.

Coming off a campaign in which he paced all American League rookies in starts, strikeouts and innings pitched, Jordan Montgomery has all but secured his place in the rotation, manager Aaron Boone said.

Montgomery, whose next start will come on Sunday against the Marlins, has limited opponents to one run on five hits in 8 2/3 Grapefruit League innings (1.04 ERA). Boone said on Friday that he sees the fifth rotation spot as belonging to Montgomery.

“I viewed him as very much a front-runner for that spot,” Boone said. “We e really excited about not only the year he put together last year, but where we think he can continue to go. When I look at him, I look at him as one of our starters.”

He’s now a wild card heading into the season and these readings have me moving him down in my rankings.


Spring Training Notes (3/9/18): Archer’s Change, Astros at First, Brewers Leadoff

3/8/18

Brewers vs Diamondbacks

In the game, Christian Yelich led off with Lorenzo Cain batting second. In the three games when both have been in the lineup, Yelich has led off in each one. This lineup position will be a small hit to Yelich’s value. While he’ll get 30 extra at-bats during the season, he’ll start off the game with no RBI chances. Also, hitting after the pitcher limiting his opportunities even more.

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Spring Training Notes (3/8/18)

The Notes took a leave of absence while I was in Arizona for a few days. I spent most of my time on this article updating the spring training velocities, watching a couple pitchers, and waiting for my internet connection to return.

Astros vs. Nationals (3/6/18)

A.J. Cole
FB: 88-92 mph. Straight with nothing on it
CH: 78-81 mph. 12-6 break, threw it a lot, must of been working on it.
SL: 77-79 mph
Overall: His fastball is well below average with little movement or velocity. His breakers all move to the release side (slider), down (change), or both (curve). He no one to get excited over.

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Closer Job Security Chances

Chasing Saves frustrates many owners as injuries and poor performance piles up. Trying to accumulate Saves can be a tiring game with roster spots and FAAB wasted on arms who only keep their job for a week or two while piling up a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Last pre-season, I went through and examined reliever talent and how likely they were they were to keep their job. It’s time to give the 2018 bullpen arms their chances to make it a full season.

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LABR Weekend Thoughts: Free Agents, Inflation, & a Heavy Heart

The LABR only league auctions are a fantastic way to start off the fantasy season (AL and NL results). I’m co-captaining one of the AL-only teams with Eno Sarris who is making one last attempt for a championship. Here are some takeaways from the weekend.

For a quick rundown of the rules.

  • 12 teams
  • 23 players, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters (two catchers)
  • 5×5 roto with AVG
  • $260 budget

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NFBC ADP Movers & Shakers

The ADP movers over the past two weeks can generally be group into several specific categories. Others are off on an island. I’ll examine the outliers and place others into their obvious groups (full top 245 at the article’s end).

Billy Hamilton (60 to 62)

I’m not sure why Hamilton has fallen a bit as the draft season has moved on. One theory I can make up is that owners are drafting with a more balanced approach and they don’t need to reach for Hamilton. The problem with Hamilton is he is a complete sink on your team in every other category besides steals. I have him as the 61st ranked hitter so he’d be lower with pitchers added so I can understand the drop.

Justin Turner (85 to 83)

I don’t think he’s moved as much as everyone else around him started moving. The talent curve begins to flatten at this point and small value changes can lead to bigger jumps.

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Spring Training Notes: 2/27/18

Today’s notes are me catching up on news and games after getting a couple other articles finished.

2/26/18 Games

Mets vs Tigers

Noah Syndergaard was hot during and after his last start.
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Picking at the #3 Spot: Down to Turner & Betts

In a few days, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational will begin drafting. The invitational is the combination of 13 different 15-team leagues full of the industry’s best and brightest (and Howard Bender). We’ve been given our draft positions and I got the third pick. After Arizona installed the humidor and dinged Goldschmidt’s value, the pick has no easy options. Instead of focusing on the first-round pick, I’m going to dive into my second and third round options to hopefully make a better choice with the first one.

With any draft or auction in which my draft pick is known, I plan my first two to three picks. Beyond that point, the variables increase, plan is out the window, and owners need to target values and needs.

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