In Tout Wars this season, I’ve run Jose Ramirez out every week. I have no issues sitting a struggling star but in Ramirez’s case, I’m basically running out Billy Hamilton which helps with steals.

One of the following stat lines in for Billy Hamilton and the other for Jose Ramirez

A. .227/.302/.280 with 16 SB
B. .211/.299/.320 with 18 SB

Which one is Ramirez?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) June 24, 2019

I’ve been waiting for a rebound but nothing so far. He’s hit .286/.310/.500 this past week but it’s just acceptable. It’s not enough to offset the horrible weeks. The numbers are lower than his preseason projections. Today, I want to determine if any hope exists for an offensive rebound. How often has a hitter been projected to hit as well as Ramirez and then struggled so bad and did he rebound? It doesn’t look good.

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One trend I’ve noticed is some owners are starting to pack it in or succumbing to the grind. There is no reason to roster Montas with his suspension but he’s still on five rosters. Since more players are available on the waiver wire, teams down in the rankings can quickly make up ground.

The following players were dropped in more than 10 or more of the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues.

Demoted

• Leonys Martin (24): A .620 OPS. Anyone with an OPS under .650 is suspect for demotion.
• Kevin Cron (20): This demotion was a little weird since Cron was hitting good (.822 OPS). Maybe it points to the return of Jake Lamb off of the IL.
• Erick Fedde (12): 4.9 K/9 + 4.2 BB/9 = demotion
• Mike Foltynewicz (11): He’s got to work through several issues which have ballooned his ERA to 6.37.

Injured

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I thought it was going to be a slow week for bidding, but a few pitchers have seen their ownership jump quite a bit. Also, there is some movement with a couple of closers going down with injuries.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
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Angels

• Justin Upton is back and has slotted in the cleanup spot. Normally, the cleanup spot has been reserved for Albert Pujols so some kinks need to still be worked out.
• Tommy La Stella’s spirit has returned to reclaim his body from Babe Ruth and has hit .200/.238/.425 over the past two weeks.
• Luis Rengifo (.649) will likely head to the minors once Andrelton Simmons returns from the IL. He’ll probably not be missed.
• I didn’t expect Shohei Ohtani to steal much to protect his elbow but he does have three steals in his last eight games.

Astros

• The lineup is in flux with Jose Altuve returning from the IL and the last three games being in an NL park with the pitcher batting.
• Altuve hit third in the lineup in his first game back.
• Tyler White has heated up ( .310/.474/.586) over the last two weeks. When Carlos Correa returns, it’ll be interesting to see if White (.695 OPS) or Yuli Gurriel (.593 OPS) will take over the first base duties.

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I’m been writing this column since the season’s start and today I ask, “What more should I change about its content?”. I’m sure everyone would like more of everything. More players. More on each player. More sources besides the NFBC. If I do more, what would you like to see less of? Just let me know.

As of the players listed below, they are the players dropped in 10 or more of the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues (a few extras added in).

Demotion

• Derek Fisher (25): With Yordan Alvarez being promoted and the big three on the IL returning, there was no room for him in the majors.
• Willians Astudillo (11): The fan-favorite can’t help his owners in the minors.
• Brendan Rodgers (11): The highly touted prospect was demoted after only hitting .246/.300/.277 in the majors.
• Cesar Puello (10): With Justin Upton returning from the IL, he expendable. And now on the Marlins.

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For most people, today is Father’s Day. For those who have an NFBC league, it’s Yordan Alvarez Day. The bids for him this week will be off the charts. It’s not just him who’s available and with many owners spending time with their families, there should be deals everywhere.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Angels

• Luis Rengifo (.597 OPS) and Wilfredo Tovar (.422 OPS) are manning the two infield positions while batting eighth and ninth.
• Kevan Smith (.284//.376/.419) is hitting better than Jonathan Lucroy (.232/.300/.368) but is only starting twice a week.
• Cesar Puello (vs LHP) and Brian Goodwin (vs RHP) are platooning in left field.

Astros

• The Astros lineup remains in flux with the three stars out and the recent promotion of Yordan Alvarez. They’ve also demoted Derek Fisher. For the last two games, they’ve used the same lineup with Josh Reddick leading off, Alvarez batting fifth, and somehow Tyler White is still batting eighth.
• When the big three return, I expect White, Tony Kemp, and Jake Marisnick to be benched.

Athletics

• The lineup is set with a Chad Pinder and Robbie Grossman splitting time in left field.

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Last season at BaseballHQ ($$), I found the expected results for hitters returning from Tommy John surgery (TJS). The research was completed with traditional stats and no StatCast information was utilized. The reason was that only one regular, Christian Vazquez, had Tommy John surgery since there was publicly available StatCast data. That changed when five hitters had the surgery last year. With the return of Didi Gregorius, all have made it to the majors. Sadly the early returns are unspectacular with Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani struggling.

In his first three seasons, Seager posted a .876 OPS but past two seasons it has only been a .793 OPS. I included last season because he struggled while trying to play through the injury. For Ohtani, he posted a .925 OPS last year and just a .742 OPS this season. These values line up with the original TJS article.

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