Author Archive

Sunday Evening FAAB & Waiver Wire Chat

7:57
Griffey: Who’s better ROS:  F. Reyes or J.D. Davis

7:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Reyes

7:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the two mixed league FAAB results from Tout Wars

7:58
Jeff Zimmerman: RElias: 89
CTucker: 67
APujols: 62
MPerez: 58
HBailey: 39
JMurphy: 36
DSantana: 33
TLaStella: 32
CAnderson: 26
SGaviglio: 24
ESwanson: 22
MTauchman: 20
DBote: 16
RTapia: 14
HKendrick: 12
CBuchholz: 11
JDDavis: 9
RStephenson: 9
MChavis: 7
JrgLopez: 6
MAdams: 6
ESogard: 6
DFowler: 4
NBurdi: 3
ZGallen: 2
CVazquez: 2
INova: 2
COwings: 2
PBaez: 1
GParra: 1
SRomo: 0

8:00
Jeff Zimmerman: CTucker: 185
DSmithJr: 177
JEickhoff: 123
RRuiz: 57
MCanha: 54
MSoroka: 52
MTauchman: 38
MWacha: 23
EThames: 23
ESwanson: 23
SKelley: 22
RQuinn: 20
TThornton: 18
JReddick: 17
TFrazier: 15
AlexReyes: 14
ZDavies: 13
CBuchholz: 10
HBailey: 8
MChavis: 8
COwings: 5
TDArnaud: 5
BMcCann: 3
ESogard: 2
DSantana: 2
TomMurphy: 0
HVelazquez: 0

8:00
Edgar: Cole Tucker wasn’t in your FAAB prediction. What are your thoughts?

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Week Five FAAB Projections (4/20/19)

I believe there are some diamonds in the rough available this week. It’s tough to know who exactly. Will Michael Chavis grab Bostons second base job? Is Scott Kingery going to play full time? Will one of Robert Stephenson, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly or Diego Castilla get Saves? Maybe one or two.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the pitchers who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

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AL Lineup Analysis (4/20/19)

Angels


Changing Fastballs (4/18/19)

After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

  • I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
  • The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
  • A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
  • When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
  • All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

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Who Is Being Dropped & Why (Week 4)

It’s that time to dive into the 38 NFBC Main Events to see who is being dropped in 10 or more leagues and why.

Injury

  • Dellin Betances (13): He’s out until late May with a shoulder injury.
  • Ronald Guzman (13): He’ll be on the IL for two to three weeks with an injured hamstring. For teams in need of hitting, he might be worth a stash.
  • Franchy Cordero (12): Cordero was due for some regression with his .300 AVG fuel up by a .556 BABIP and down by a 35% K%. It’s just tough to place a finger on his true talent with on the time on the IL.

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Sunday Evening Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m back from a day of watching my son play soccer. The @rotographs FAAB and Waiver chat will begin in a few minutes. I need to scour some news feeds to see if I need to adjust some FAAB bids.

7:38
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m good for now, time to start

7:38
Max Johnson: Do you like Goodrum this year? SSS but xstats/peripherals look nice.

7:39
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s very boring but productive. I’d not be surprised if he was a top-50 player by season’s end

7:39
BigTuna: If I have a beat up offense plus Sale, Darvish, Mikolas, Musgrove, Glasnow, and Pineda, would you drop Y. Chirinos for O’Neill, A. Gordon, Dozier, Leonys, or C. Walker or hold and try to trade arm for bat? (12 tm OPS)

7:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes for Walker, Gordon, or Leonys and possibly Dozier depending on which one. Yes for Brian, no for Hunter

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Week 4 Mixed League FAAB Estimates

It is a bi-polar week for possible FAAB bids. Not one arm stands out as a must bid. On the hitting side, a few wallet busters exist with some possible fierce bidding.  I’ll start with the hitters.

I’m a little under the weather so I provide as much information as possible and owners can make their own estimates. I might add some more analysis tomorrow morning.

As usual, I utilize CBS’s ownership rates to find potential movers since CBS allows daily pickups. The projected costs are for the 15-team, 30-player roster NFBC Main Event teams. Individual owners are going to need to adjust the values to their own league size and tendencies.
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AL Lineup Analysis (4/12/19)

Angels

  • Kole Calhoun goes from leading off against righties to the seven spot against lefties.
  • Zack Cozart, David Fletcher, and Taylor Ward are in a three-way battle for the third base job. For now, I’d bet on Fletcher (.303/.324/.333) since Ward has just three plate appearances and Cozart has just one hit (32 PA).

Astros

  • They have used the same lineup all season with the only changes being someone cycling through the DH to get a break.

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Changing Fastballs

Most analysts listened when I made this pre-season request.

Almost too good. Every time I thought about writing about today’s topic, another writer stepped up. I’m done waiting and it is time to see which fastballs have changed, for the better or worse, since last year.

Instead of focusing just on velocity, I add in the fastball’s spin rate and the pitcher’s overall Zone%. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong. By combining the three factors together, I’ve come up with an overall ‘Injury’ value where a -100 score means several negative forces are at work.

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Who is Getting Dropped & Why (Week 3)

Fantasy owners this past week found several players in demand, so owners needed to decided who headed to the waiver wire. Here are the players released and why in the NFBC Main Event.

Injury

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