With the calendar turned to December, the “Way Too” portion of the title feels  incorrect. Still, we have a series to finish so let’s get down to business. This is the seventh of eight volumes in the Way Too Early Rankings collection. Pre-Order the complete edition now – it makes a great stocking stuffer! You can find outfielders and links to the rest by following a link.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

Starting pitcher is the deepest and most difficult position to rank. I’ll be focusing written analysis on the players who most interest me. There’s a very high likelihood some players have slipped through the cracks. I think we’ll have a lot to talk about in the comments.

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Clayton Kershaw missed a big chunk of the season yet he was still a fantasy MVP. The real world NL Cy Young award debate was duplicated in fantasy land with Max Scherzer and Kershaw comfortably leading Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Madison Bumgarner. What’s more valuable, Scherzer’s quantity or Kershaw’s quality? Our auction calculator says quantity by $1.50.

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Regular ottoneu enthusiasts may recall my retooling efforts from last winter in FanGraphs Staff Two. Here’s the short version. After going all-in to win the 2015 campaign, I was left with a very talented and very expensive roster. I needed to slice more $150 off my payroll without affecting the product. I was open to rebuilding, but I always prefer to contend.

The easy way out was to trade one or both of Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. Unfortunately, my leaguemates and I have very different ideas about the value of expensive, hyper-elite players. I guess it makes sense that they gravitated to my roster. I had to re-equip the hard way – by making a flurry of incrimental moves.

One year later, I get to claim success. The 2016 season may have been my most successful victory yet. Now I’m attempting the same stunt once again. I entered the offseason with $510 spread across 42 players. Of that, only a couple low cost players are obvious cuts. Time to get to work.

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Yesterday, we discussed a few speedy outfielders who could break out in 2017. The speed tool is easy to observe. For them, it’s mostly about opportunity, defensive ability, and hitting just enough to bat near the top of the lineup.

Prognosticating power breakouts is a harder job. One way is to look for guys with 80 grade batting practice power like Miguel Sano. Opportunity and ball park are other important indicators. As we learned in 2016, many power breakouts are the result of mechanical changes. I can’t predict those here.

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We have this dichotomy in fantasy baseball. Even though we measure five categories, we mostly talk about power or speed. With the occasional exception of a Joe Panik, nearly every major league player can be described as speedy, powerful, or both. That’s not just a reflection on the way we play fantasy, it’s also an insight into processes of major league clubs. They supply our talent pool.

Judging from the title, we’re here today to talk about speedy outfielders – specifically the breakout candidates. While a power breakout can come in many forms – think about Mark Trumbo compared to tiny Jose Altuve – speed is highly observable. A guy is fast or he is not fast. On the margins, you’ll have players like Michael Brantley and Chase Utley. Neither were ever particularly speedy, but they knew/know how to pick their spots. Alternatively, current Philllies Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera are plenty fast, but they’re TOOTBLAN kings.

We could get into this in more detail. Here’s the point. Speed is easy to see. Breakouts for speed type players happen in other categories. Usually, they suddenly show better plate discipline or buff their hard hit rate. Sometimes, it’s just a matter of starting regularly or earning a better spot in the lineup.

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The easiest way to build a winning roster is to draft undervalued players. These aren’t upside or breakout targets, they’re simply guys who are going much later in the draft than their projections merit. When it comes to high quality leagues, our markets are usually pretty efficient. We don’t just leave predictably good players to sit around in the draft. However, here are three guys we selected too late.

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The Major League Rule 5 draft will be held on December 8. Teams have already made most of their 40-man roster decisions in preparation for draft day, but there’s still time for a few more cuts or trades to open spots. The owners are also threatening to enforce a lockout beginning on December 1 which would probably push back the Rule 5 draft to an undetermined time.

If you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 draft, it’s an opportunity for teams to steal players from other clubs. Said players must not be on a 40-man roster now and must remain on the active roster of their new club for a full service year. There’s more to it than that, but it’s unimportant to us as fantasy players. All we need to know is that some relatively untouted prospects are going to be jammed onto major league rosters for an entire year.

In 2015, the big names (from a fantasy perspective) were Joey Rickard and Tyler Goeddel. Not a big deal, eh? Rickard was useful very early in the season while Goeddel was a star in May and otherwise awful. The 2014 draft included Odubel Herrera, Delino DeShields, and Mark Canha. They contributed to some fantasy titles.

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Absent all other information, we should always expect a player to be worse than the previous year. A.J. Pollock won’t be worse in 2017 by virtue of missing nearly all of 2016. That’s practically a guarantee. But what should we actually expect of him?

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This is the sixth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops can be found via the links. Yesterday, we evaluated what outfielders did in 2016. Today, we’ll take a first stab at ranking them for 2017.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

Outfield is a very large position. I’ll be focusing written analysis on the players who most interest me. There’s a very high likelihood some players have slipped through the cracks – either because I only ranked them at another position or missed them entirely.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Trout was the MVP of baseball this year. He had to fend off a good season from Mookie Betts, but there was no questioning that Trout was amazing. Flip to the fantasy world and it was Betts who triumphed over Trout. With an extra 49 plate appearances and slightly better 5×5 numbers, Betts did just enough to score $3 higher than our favorite fish. Of course, if you happen to play in an OBP league, Trout’s .441 OBP destroyed Betts’ .363 OBP. Real baseball is an OBP league.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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