Out of Nowhere: Powerful Outfielders

Yesterday, we discussed a few speedy outfielders who could break out in 2017. The speed tool is easy to observe. For them, it’s mostly about opportunity, defensive ability, and hitting just enough to bat near the top of the lineup.

Prognosticating power breakouts is a harder job. One way is to look for guys with 80 grade batting practice power like Miguel Sano. Opportunity and ball park are other important indicators. As we learned in 2016, many power breakouts are the result of mechanical changes. I can’t predict those here.

Big Boppers Not Boppin’

Sano went early in 2016 drafts because nobody wanted to miss out on his Stantonian power. As it turns out, 2016 was not a good season to overpay for power. In a normal year, his 25 homers in 495 plate appearances would have offered some value. In 2016, the appropriate reaction was “meh.”

Sano has all the indicators of a 40 home run threat. He makes ludicrously hard contact, and his 45.8 percent fly ball rate was one of the highest in the league. His batted ball profile is comparably to Kris Bryant – and he hammered 39 home runs. While Target Field isn’t the best place for power hitters, Brian Dozier just popped 42. If he can do it, so can Sano.

Stop me if you’ve heard these names before in the context of breakouts. Cuban outfielders Jorge Soler and Yasiel Puig have been massive disappoints. Both are still young enough to turn the corner. They’re also both change of scenery candidates.

Although I said I can’t predict mechanical changes, working with a new coaching staff is probably the likeliest time for them to come. I have my doubts Puig will find a new home, but Soler looks mighty redundant in the Cubs outfield. For what it’s worth, I don’t believe either player can consistently succeed at the major league level without making a substantial change.

Friendly Parks

Miller Park was one of the friendliest parks for hitters in 2016. It should come as no surprise that I like Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton. The pair combined for only 20 home runs last season, albeit in 525 plate appearances. Broxton only needs to maintain his believable pace to brush against 25 home runs. It’s easier to see room for growth in Santana. He posted a high hard hit rate coupled with a league leading line drive rate. Unfortunately, he hits way too many ground balls. A few subtle adjustments could send more of that hard contact skyward.

Elsewhere in the NL Central is the closest thing to sea level Coors Field – Great American Ballpark. Scott Schebler doesn’t currently project as an everyday starter – the team needs to balance utility work for Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. That only means Schebler should be free in most fantasy formats.

The lefty swinger managed nine home runs in 282 plate appearances in his first regular exposure to the majors. His .265/.330/.432 slash was enough to ensure he has a role in 2017 (barring a Spring Training disaster). Even without an uptick in power, he could easily luck his way into 25 blasts at GABP.

Kendrys Morales isn’t a breakout candidate, but he could be a high value sleeper. With Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista likely to be out of the picture, Morales looks like a lock for a prime spot in the lineup. Despite doing nothing for the first third of 2016 and playing his home games at spacious Kauffman Stadium, Morales still managed to bop 30 homers. It’s not hard to see how he might stretch for 35 homers at the Rogers Centre and the other excessively friendly AL East parks. Then again, he’s entering his age 34 season and started soooo cold in 2016.

Young Folk

At some point, the Rangers are finally going to cut Joey Gallo loose – either in Texas or via trade. The power is real, and so is the plate discipline. Unfortunately, a combination of working the count and an inability to hit advanced breaking balls has led to a very high strikeout rate. Gallo may want to take a more aggressive tact in his early career. Otherwise he’s going to be in too many pitcher’s counts to reach his 40 homer destiny. It’s easy to comp Gallo to Chris Carter, but the former White Sox and Athletics prospect didn’t strike out nearly as often as Gallo in the minors. That’s scary.

Entering his age 25 season, Stephen Moya isn’t exactly young. However, if the Tigers manage to trade J.D. Martinez, Moya may have an unimpeded path to a regular role. Moya has much in common with Gallo, including 40 home run upside and ridiculous whiff rates. Unlike Gallo, his aggressive approach at the plate gives him at least some chance to regularly tap into his power. Other flawed, high strikeout bats include Aaron Judge, Adam Brett Walker, and Peter O’Brien.