Earlier this week, I discussed my latest plan for my holds league. Since chasing both saves and holds usually comes at the expense of hitting categories, I’m going to focus on holds early in the season then pivot to saves around the mid-way point. The most efficient way to accomplish this is to draft setup men who will eventually matriculate to closer. Preferably cheap setup men (unlike Nate Jones).

To that end, volatile bullpens are my friend. But it’s not enough to say “that bullpen is unsteady.” The Padres have a shaky bullpen with as many as four relievers competing for the closer job. However, how many save and hold opportunities do you expect that rotation and offense to produce? Not many. Those starters might be historically bad…

So we want a synthesis between opportunities and bullpen volatility. Here is a division-by-division review of the teams I’ll be monitoring closely.

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Strange things happen in holds leagues. The extra pressure to roster relievers often leads to inefficiencies on offense. Meanwhile, the bar is set very high for pitching rates since many owners try to start three closers and three setup men. In my experience, chasing both reliever categories usually comes at the cost of mediocre offensive performance. Today, let’s discuss my latest scheme for having my cake and eating it too (ooh, more cake!)

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In the grand scheme of things, FanGraphs is closer to a blog than a newspaper. We usually try to make our content look more like articles than posts. We even have a style guide that directs us not to speak in the first person (pretty sure nobody listens to that rule). Today, you’re reading a blog post. I hope that’s ok with you. If not, get over yourself.

This is the story of last Tuesday, January 31…

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Perhaps you’ve seen this tweet at some point over the offseason. It surfaced most recently about 10 days ago via Dave Cameron in his piece about the Dodgers’ intentional inefficiency.

Andrew Friedman: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) December 6, 2016

What Friedman says absolutely applies to fantasy baseball. Especially auction drafts. Every year, I see people saying “I’m going to stick to my values.” I’ve been that guy too. Way back when I was the only person in the room with advanced analysis, sticking to my values was a winning strategy. Now it’s a good way to lose every key player.

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On Monday, Scott Strandberg wrote that everybody is paying too much for Jose Peraza. The statement is based on NFBC ADP which has him going a round or two earlier than what I’ve seen in expert mocks. I wonder if it’s just the NFBC crowd that’s paying too much.

Scott makes good points, although I have some counter arguments. Peraza is going before high floor second basemen like Ben Zobrist, Logan Forsythe, and Neil Walker. Seemingly, you should pass on Peraza and take a vet, right? No, you should (probably) take both.  At least, that’s how I build my rosters.

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Today’s the day. Your 2017 ottoneu keeper rosters are due prior to midnight tonight. All that advice to put off cutting your extraneous players can be ignored. Shed the bloat and corruption from your roster. See ya $35 Chris Davis. Didn’t find a taker for your $20 David Ortiz? Well, I’m not surprised. Goodbye forever Big Papi.

I’m here to offer some last minute advice as you make your decisions. Let’s talk about trade options and those oh-so-tricky borderline keepers. For more late breaking advice, check out the ottoneu strategy page.

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, NL Central here, and AL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, NL Central here, and AL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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The Low Investment Mound Ace (LIMA) has been dead for years. It’s a classic roster building technique aimed at dominating the hitting categories and doing just enough with low cost pitchers. As recently as a few years ago, it was the linchpin of my drafting strategy. It’s still talked about as a common and successful approach. Judging by the title, I probably disagree.

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, and NL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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