A Rapid Review of Bullpen Volatility

Earlier this week, I discussed my latest plan for my holds league. Since chasing both saves and holds usually comes at the expense of hitting categories, I’m going to focus on holds early in the season then pivot to saves around the mid-way point. The most efficient way to accomplish this is to draft setup men who will eventually matriculate to closer. Preferably cheap setup men (unlike Nate Jones).

To that end, volatile bullpens are my friend. But it’s not enough to say “that bullpen is unsteady.” The Padres have a shaky bullpen with as many as four relievers competing for the closer job. However, how many save and hold opportunities do you expect that rotation and offense to produce? Not many. Those starters might be historically bad…

So we want a synthesis between opportunities and bullpen volatility. Here is a division-by-division review of the teams I’ll be monitoring closely.

NL East

The Mets bullpen is simply a battle between Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed. Both should be pricey in holds formats.

The Nationals offer some opportunity for a mid-season promotion. Blake Treinen and Koda Glover are the most likely arms to take over for injury prone Shawn Kelley (super high slider rate and two TJS). Glover even has a similar approach to Kelley but with a faster fastball. Unfortunately, I expect any closer replacements to come from outside the organization.

You might think I’d bundle the Phillies and Braves in with the Padres. However, I think both teams are good enough to scrap 81 wins with a touch of luck. The rotations are solid, and the offenses aren’t as bad as the 2016 numbers suggest. I expect Arodys Vizcaino to be costly, but Mauricio Cabrera should be free. On the Phillies side, people will pay for Hector Neris and Joaquin Benoit. I bet they leave Edubray Ramos alone.

The Marlins keep signalling fatigue with A.J. Ramos, but they’ve yet to find his replacement. They have two great internal options in Kyle Barraclough (expensive) and Brad Ziegler (probably cheap). The problem with Ziegler is his ratios – they aren’t good enough to bother rostering if he’s only a setup man.

NL Central

The Cubs and Cardinals have good, deep bullpens. By all means roster the handcuffs for Seung Hwan Oh and Wade Davis. Just don’t expect any saves without an injury. That’s not a dig. Betting on injuries is a very good strategy for finding saves. See Herrera, Kelvin.

The Reds bullpen may be the best to target in division. The club currently plans to use a revolving door of Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, and Drew Storen. They became enamored with multi-inning saves after Iglesias emerged from amidst a heaping pile of garbage. Eventually, this probably becomes one guy’s job. I’m worried about their ability to accumulate holds.

I don’t think Neftali Feliz is the answer for the Brewers. He struggled with home runs as a member of the Pirates. How is he going to fare at Miller Park? Corey Knebel is the obvious setup man. Just because he’s obvious doesn’t mean he’s safe to use. I suspect he’ll be overpriced. To be clear, anything over $1 or a late round pick counts as overpriced here.

Tony Watson has a firmer grip on the ninth inning than people credit. Daniel Hudson and Felipe Rivero are the others to own. I prefer Rivero.

NL West

The Dodgers and Giants are locked in on their closer. So are the Diamondbacks by virtue of having nobody else to turn to beyond Fernando Rodney. There’s plenty of talent in that bullpen. We’ve yet to see any of them perform at a setup quality level for an extended period. Watch for breakouts.

I mentioned the Padres ‘pen in the intro. The four to watch are Brandon Maurer, Carter Capps, Ryan Buchter, and Kevin Quackenbush. Capps is obviously my favorite. I talk about him whenever I get the chance. Too bad the club may accrue 25 saves all season.

Nobody really wants saves or holds from the Rockies. That said, Adam Ottavino and Greg Holland may be good enough to own. Strangely, they may cost a bit more than I’d like.

AL East

This division is locked in. If the Rays trade Alex Colome, they’ll turn to a deep committee of broken former closers and former starting pitchers. Look for opportunities elsewhere.

AL Central

The Twins offer up the most volatility. Their best arm, Glen Perkins, “felt a familiar catch” in his left pitching shoulder. I worry he’ll never return. That leaves middle reliever Brandon Kintzler and a bunch of unside-y arms to battle for the ninth. As with the Diamondbacks, monitor for breakouts.

The White Sox and Tigers have stability on the field, but both clubs are interested in trading their veteran contracts. For that reason, Nate Jones (expensive) and Bruce Rondon (should be cheap) could eventually gain the closer role. In the case of the White Sox, don’t be surprised if Jones is the first to be traded.

Cleveland’s dynamic between Cody Allen and Andrew Miller will probably continue. Kelvin Herrera should run with the job in Kansas City.

AL West

This may be the best division to target. There’s nobody to take the job from Edwin Diaz in Seattle – at least not until Steve Cishek and Tony Zych are healthy. Diaz was terrific last season, but there are a couple (very small) red flags in his data.

Ken Giles should be safe too, although the Astros are awash with alternatives. Giles has experienced very rocky starts in each of the last two seasons. Perhaps we’re seeing some command-related signal, or maybe he’ll finally dominate from day one. Luke Gregerson and Will Harris are just good enough to pick as early season holds candidates. The team is also ideal in that they should have plenty of mid- and late-inning leads.

Sam Dyson is a perfectly adequate closer. I continue to maintain that his skill set is better leveraged in a flexible role. Besides, Matt Bush is a better pitcher with traditional closer stuff. The club also has Jeremy Jeffress who does all the same things as Dyson. So a move may not be forthcoming. I bet Bush’s price increases all throughout draft season.

As a team, the Athletics are less talented than the Astros and Rangers, but I expect them to be competitive. There’s been no guidance as to who will close in Oakland, probably because it’ll be a four way battle between Ryan Madson, Santiago Casilla, John Axford, and my personal favorite, Sean Doolittle. The lefty was in top form late last season with career best velocity and his usual excellent command.

Cam Bedrosian won’t come cheaply, therefore the Angels bullpen lacks the opportunity we’re looking for today. Nobody wants Huston Street or Andrew Bailey as setup men on the off chance Bedrosian doesn’t (eventually) run away with the ninth.