Fantasy Busts and Opportunities: AL East

The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, NL Central here, and AL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

AL East Opportunities

Blue Jays

Toronto has the pitching side of the roster figured out – for now. When the club needs a sixth starter, Joseph Biagini is probably the most interesting option. Assuming he returns to starting. Biagini was a Rule 5 pick who pitched well out of the bullpen last season. Now he can be optioned to Triple-A for his first shot at starting in the highest level of the minors. Michael Bolsinger of brief Dodgers fame is also on the depth chart. If Biagini isn’t optioned to start, he’s a candidate to fill in for Roberto Osuna if his balky elbow flares up again. Jason Grilli has first claim to the setup job.

It’s on the position side where the Jays have actual battled. Devon Travis is quickly earning the injury prone label thanks to poorly timed, major injuries. Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins are the next most able second basemen, but the club may be tempted to use Steve Pearce regularly if they’re without Travis.

I can’t believe Toronto still has at bats for Justin Smoak. He looks like the regular first baseman with Pearce taking the brunt of the work versus lefties. Kendrys Morales may start when visiting National League parks.

What was shaping up to be a disastrous outfield was saved by Jose Bautista’s return. Now Melvin Upton and Dalton Pompey can battle for the left field job. Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera could also factor in here. I didn’t think Pompey was ready to be thrust into active duty. Now he has a chance to make his case in Spring Training without any pressure on the club to promote him regardless of performance.

Orioles

Perpetually injured shortstop J.J. Hardy represents the softest spot in the Orioles infield. Since Manny Machado is perfectly capable of backing him up, we’re looking for a back up third baseman. Still looking. Presently, Ryan Flaherty is the only guy waving his hand. Let’s ignore him. Aaron Hill, Gordon Beckham, and Chase Utley are all free agents. They’d also make for better infield backups than Flaherty. There are some trade options too.

Left field is set to be an awkward platoon between Hyun Soo Kim and Seth Smith. Signing a right-handed outfielder like Rickie Weeks would make a lot of sense. None of these suggested signings are budget bust.

Mark Trumbo is penciled in as the primary right field (yuck). Chris Davis is lined up at first base. Designated hitter belongs to some combination of Christian Walker and Trey Mancini, neither of whom need to start the season in the majors. There’s undeniable room for a reunion with Pedro Alvarez or another first base/DH type.

The rotation depth includes Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and Logan Verrett. As AL East pitchers, they’ll rarely have a matchup worth targeting. FanGraphs’ depth charts crew projects zero Orioles to reach 180 innings. That means the fodder will be busy.

Rays

With Wilson Ramos set to miss the first one to six months of the season, Luke Maile and Curt Casali figure to get a lot of play. Casali has shown interesting power at times with little feel for contact. With regard to Ramos, he’s a solid $1 pickup late in your drafts. Anybody paying more than a dollar is bound to be disappointed. There will be better players for a DL stash.

The Rays have some options at first and second base. Brad Miller has become the primary first baseman, but they could sign a cheap free agent and move Miller to second base. There’s no real upside to giving Nick Franklin an unopposed path to starting reps. Similarly Tim Beckham isn’t even a second division starter.

Matt Duffy struggled with injuries last season. A continuation could necessitate Beckham, Franklin, or Miller to take over at shortstop. It’s yet another reason why the Rays should sign a first baseman. The starting outfield is set, and they have a great depth piece in the form of Mallex Smith. Our depth charts list Smith as the primary backup, but I think he’ll start the season at Triple-A where he can further refine his hitting. I’m looking forward to seeing him play in Durham.

The Rays always have useful rotation pieces lying around. After trading Logan Forsythe for Jose de Leon, we’ll be treated to a battle for the fifth rotation spot. Matt Andriese is coming off a solid season, although he’s a lot better as a multi-inning reliever. Jacob Faria and Taylor Guerrieri have some fantasy upside too along with about half a dozen others farther down the depth chart.

If Alex Colome is traded, former closers Brad Boxberger, Danny Farquhar, and Shawn Tolleson are waiting in the wings. I wouldn’t rule out Andriese or southpaw Xavier Cedeno either.

Red Sox

Boston has more position battles than you might expect. Catcher is a three-way war between fluky Sandy Leon, out-of-options Christian Vazquez, and top prospect Blake Swihart. The club is reportedly committed to keeping Swihart behind the plate. If you can’t tell, I don’t think very highly of Leon despite the flaming pile of BABIP he produced in 2016. To my eye, he exploited an incorrect scouting report for a couple months. Over his final 125 plate appearances (out of 283), he hit a much more characteristic .216/.285/.252 with a .308 BABIP. Still, it doesn’t hurt to have depth, even if it’s arranged in the wrong order.

First base isn’t exactly a battle, but some playing time could open at designated hitter if Mitch Moreland flops. Fenway Park is a tough venue for left-handed power. Moreland has made his money on brief, fiery hot streaks. The Boston crowd may not appreciate sitting through his long cold droughts. Speaking of impatience, can Pablo Sandoval avoid the boo birds? Brock Holt, aka the modern day Mark Bellhorn, waits in the wings.

As you undoubtedly know, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, and Steven Wright are battling for two rotation jobs. The loser will head to long relief. If and when they get a chance to start, they’ll be worthy of outright ownership in all but the shallowest leagues.

Yankees

The FanGraphs depth chart crew gives a whole lot more credit to Tyler Austin (455 projected PA) than I would. With Greg Bird and Matt Holliday also on the roster, Austin looks like a backup hitter to me.

I tend to compare Aaron Judge to Joey Gallo. It’s not that they’re similar hitters – they really aren’t. Rather, they both need a lot of space to sink or swim. Preferably on a non-contending roster. The Yankees will supposedly give Judge that space, but they’re not known for their patience. Aaron Hicks and Rob Refsnyder could climb the ladder as needed. Since Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are ancient, the backups should stay busy.

New York is rolling a three man rotation with some combination of Luis Severino, Chad Green, Bryan Mitchell, Adam Warren, and Luis Cessa filling the fourth and fifth spots. They all have potential to contribute some fantasy value, especially Severino. A lot of it depends on the improvements they’ve made over the offseason and the adjustments they make during the season.

Grid of AL East Opportunities
Potential Bust Players to Stash Players to Stash Players to Stash
Jays SP Depth Joseph Biagini Michael Bolsinger
Devon Travis Steve Pearce
Justin Smoak Steve Pearce Kendrys Morales
Melvin Upton Dalton Pompey Steve Pearce
J.J. Hardy Free Agent 3B
Hyun Soo Kim Seth Smith Free Agent RHH
O’s DH Mark Trumbo Christian Walker Trey Mancini
O’s SP Depth Tyler Wilson Mike Wright Logan Verrett
Wilson Ramos Curt Casali
Rays Second Base Nick Franklin Tim Beckham Brad Miller
Matt Duffy Nick Franklin Tim Beckham Brad Miller
Jose de Leon Matt Andriese Jacob Faria Taylor Guerrieri
Alex Colome Brad Boxberger Danny Farquhar Shawn Tolleson
Sandy Leon Blake Swihart Christian Vazquez
Pablo Sandoval Brock Holt
Boston Rotation Eduardo Rodriguez Drew Pomeranz Steven Wright
Tyler Austin Greg Bird Matt Holliday
Aaron Judge Aaron Hicks Rob Refsnyder
Yankee Rotation Luis Severino Chad Green Bryan Mitchell

 





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Anon
7 years ago

I haven’t seen anything official but Moreland has to have been signed to platoon with Chris Young, right? Young can’t hit righties and Moreland can’t hit lefties. So platoon the two with Young DHing, Moreland playing 1B and HanRam flipping between DH and 1B.

As a dedicated lefty-masher, Young is out of places to play in the OF unless Benintendi flops or he or JBJ develop problems with lefties. Betts bats RH and all 3 of Betts, JBJ and Benintendi figure to not miss many games as athletic young players.

dl80
7 years ago
Reply to  Anon

Bradley is not great against lefties. He hit .244/.313/.360 against them last year, which is almost exactly his career line against them.

Benintendi was also awful against them last year, albeit in a very small sample.

Young has consistently killed lefties his entire career and is better against righties than either of those two have shown to be (so far) against lefties.

I’d be starting Young against every single lefty, rotating him through the corner outfield and DH.