Author Archive

Somebody Please Math This To Me

Yesterday, I ran into one of those full stop moments. In a 20-team dynasty league, a rival offered me Todd Frazier for Danny Salazar. Despite a need at third base, I passed on the offer. Dee Gordon was also on his trade block so I reached out about a possible Salazar-Gordon swap. I could use a middle infield upgrade on Jed Lowrie. Both Salazar and Gordon would have ranked #14 on my keeper list. And I have J.D. Martinez and Anthony Rizzo to help offset Gordon’s whopping zero in the home run category. It all smelled fine to me.

You probably can guess the response I received – a flat no. I asked some questions to determine if the issue was our valuation of Salazar or Gordon. He told me Salazar is a top 150 asset – smells right to me. Per my rival, Gordon is a top 50 player. Full stop.

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To Amed Rosario Or Not To Amed Rosario

I’ve never been on the Amed Rosario bandwagon. Growing up near Philadelphia gave me a lot of exposure to the Mets prospect dystopia. No fan base spends more time rosterbating about future busts. Anytime I hear a Mets prospect is supposed to be the next big thing, I’m instantly skeptical. Fernando Martinez forever! #FMart.

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I Resolve To Slay Mine Foes – Part the Third

Last year, I missed my annual resolution to slay mine foes. While I’d like to say the universe imploded as a result, there’s no sign anybody noticed. I’m here to announce that my resolve has returned in time for 2018, lest I inadvertently prove responsible for the annihilation of humankind. Or something.

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Iterative Trade Tango

Trades often begin fairly simply. One owner wants to swap his asset for a rival’s better asset. Typically, some version of the following response is sent: “Big Player is available, but I want more than Medium Player. I prefer a 1-for-1 swap involving Needed Position.”

The thing is, everybody wants the best player in the deal – in part because analysts like me frequently tell you to go get the best player in the deal. And so the dance begins with both owners circling the other; almost but not quite touching upon an agreeable trade. It looks something like this…

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/19/2017

Here’s today’s chat transcript. Some Phillies spare outfielder talk mixed in with the usual range of dynasty questions.

2:45
Brad Johnson: Hey folks, let’s get started once I spam twitter a little

2:46
Bobopedia: for the next 4 years, Brian Dozier or Yoan Moncada? Competitive window is ajar this year, but the following three years will have a more open window

2:47
Brad Johnson: Ooh, I’m a sucker for present value, but Dozier isn’t likely to be productive 3 or 4 years from now

2:48
Brad Johnson: Moncada could look something like Dozier as soon as 2018. I’d bet on Moncada to be better by 2020.

2:48
Brad Johnson: Given that you don’t seem too keen about 2018, I’d lean Moncada

2:48
kolten wong: Should I be worried about max schrock?

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The Two Flavors of Trade

There are only two types of trades – those of necessity and arbitrage. Let’s talk about them today.

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/12/2017

Here’s today’s chat transcript which included plenty of fun dynasty talk, a discussion of MLB league parity, and a variety of other topics.

2:56
Christian Yelich: Odds i’m traded? Might see a HR spike away from Marlins Park?

2:56
Brad Johnson: Oh, hi there folks, let’s begin

2:57
Brad Johnson: Yelich is very likely to be traded by midseason. Given his consistently high HR/FB ratio, I don’t think we’ll see more homers in another venue.

2:58
Duncan: Where does Machado end up? And what do the Orioles get in return?

2:59
Brad Johnson: A little early to get a clean read on this. I’ll say St. Louis or San Francisco. Package led by Jack Flaherty or Tyler Beede plus another decent but unexceptional prospect. One year of Machado is valuable, but it’s not worth a monster haul.

2:59
Kristaps: Francisco Mejia… Will he start 2018 in the Minors or as Cleveland everyday catcher? Trade possibility?

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Too Many Keepers Redux

I had this idea for today’s post – to evaluate my home league roster which includes more keepable players than I can possibly afford. As I prepped the information and tables I would need, the concept began to feel more and more familiar. Sure enough, I wrote about this exact topic for this exact league last March. I thought I had too many keepers then? I was a naive fool.

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The Reds Other Outfield Prospect

The Reds have enviable outfield depth. Beyond a solid starting trio of Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall, and Scott Schebler, top prospect Jesse Winker is banging down the door. Winker was superb in a 137 plate appearance trial – enough so that, despite hitting 30 home runs, Schebler’s job is in danger. Winker has only one serious drawback – he’s a ground ball hitter with middling power. He is a high floor, modest ceiling hitter whose profile is helped by his ultra-friendly home park.

Next in line after Winker is Phillip Ervin. The 25-year-old righty profiles as an ideal fourth outfielder, capable of filling in at center field in a pinch or carrying the light side of a platoon. With the right opportunity at Great American Ballpark, Ervin could supply serious fantasy value.

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DJ LeMahieu Is Unrosterable

Let’s get this out of the way. The article title is click bait. DJ LeMahieu is a good player with strong two category production – of course he’s rosterable. However, I’m here to explain why he’s less than the sum of his parts. Ideally, LeMahieu is a backup middle infielder on your fantasy roster. Since he’s unlikely to come cheaply on draft day, let somebody else deal with the aches and pains of managing him.

This article isn’t only about LeMahieu. He’s simply a representative example of a particularly difficult-to-manage player profile: guys with no power, no speed, and positive value. Some other examples include Odubel Herrera, Jed Lowrie, Joe Mauer*, and Josh Reddick. It should also be noted that I’m specifically referring to Roto leagues. The following points do not apply to most H2H or points formats.

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