Iterative Trade Tango

Trades often begin fairly simply. One owner wants to swap his asset for a rival’s better asset. Typically, some version of the following response is sent: “Big Player is available, but I want more than Medium Player. I prefer a 1-for-1 swap involving Needed Position.”

The thing is, everybody wants the best player in the deal – in part because analysts like me frequently tell you to go get the best player in the deal. And so the dance begins with both owners circling the other; almost but not quite touching upon an agreeable trade. It looks something like this…

A wild email appears

CBS Sports: Dubious Doobie Herrera has updated their trade block

click

Doobie: Listening to offers for Gerrit Cole. Need a 3B or a big bat.

wait…wait…a ha!

Protagonist: Hi Doobie, I have this Mike Moustakas thing. Swap for Cole?

Two days later, no response. You decide to send a formal offer. Two more days later…

A wild email appears

CBS Sports: Dubious Doobie Herrera reject trade offer

click

Your trade offer has been rejected. This is an automated email.

… … …(that’s not helpful)

Protagonist: Hi Doobie, curious what you were looking for in exchange for Cole. Can talk about other players besides Moose? He just seemed to fit your ask.

Finally replies

Doobie: Thanks for the offer Protagonist, Moose could work, but I value Cole higher. What if you add J.T. Realmuto?

Protagonist: I’m not opposed to dealing Realmuto, but I’ll need a little something back in exchange. I’ll take a stab at Zack Cozart continuing to hit.

Doobie: That doesn’t quite add up for me. Let’s forget Realmuto and Moose, how about I send Cole and Cozart for J.D. Martinez?

Protagonist: I’m not sure I want to disaggregate Martinez’s value. I’d need to be blown away. This isn’t it. I’d send JDM and Moose for your Jose Altuve.

Doobie: Altuve is untouchable. Let’s do this, Cole, Cozart, and Avisail Garcia for JDM and Moose.

Protagonist: Uh… no.

Five days pass…

A wild email appears

CBS Sports: Trade offer from Dubious Doobie Herrera: Gerrit Cole for Mike Moustakas.

click, click, accept

What Just Happened?

The above entry to the Most Boring Screenplay Hall of Fame is a fairly typical trade experience. Chances are, you’ve had similar exchanges in your own leagues. Trade talks often start simply before morphing into complex beasts. Sometimes, this iterative approach can yield a profitable final offer such as this actual dynasty swap for Mookie Betts and friends (executed June 11).

Josh Donaldson
Chris Archer
Jose Quintana
Odubel Herrera
Matt Bush
A.J. Ramos

-for-

Mookie Betts
Justin Smoak
Zack Godley
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Matt Davidson
Eric Sogard

This started as a Donaldson and parts for Betts offer. Since my co-owner and I were including so many core performers from our roster we pushed for the inclusion of two iffy breakouts we liked (Smoak and Godley) plus a rebound candidate (Ryu). Ryu (and Brandon Maurer) were later traded for Dexter Fowler and Tyler Chatwood.

However, these large trades are often (and should be) uncommon. When I seek out sizable swaps, it’s because I’m trying to introduce volatility. In the above example, I profited on the continued performance of Smoak and Godley. Without them, it’s a reasonable if pricey deal for a keep forever centerpiece. With them, I was able to recover a failing season and finish in the money.

If you find that 12 player trades are the norm in your league, there’s a pretty good chance that a few owners are fleecing the rest of the crowd. Fair trades tend to be small. The fewer components involved, the less opportunity there is for one owner to make devastating mistakes. When considering large deals, it can help to think about it in components. Take the above.

At the time, Betts was roughly worth Donaldson – a comparable, older talent – plus Archer and most of Quintana. The remainder of Quintana covered replacement third baseman Davidson. Herrera secured Godley while the pair of closers hooked Smoak. Ryu and Sogard were cuts. They were added as throw-ins. It’s always nice to nudge an owner towards “cutting” a potentially useful player in your direction (the aforementioned Chatwood acquisition followed the same principle).

Returning to the sample script above, you’ll notice the talks come full circle. Dubious Doobie Herrera tried to take advantage of our protagonist’s interest, but an agreeable deal eluded them. Both Doobie and Protagonist aimed too high. Eventually, Doobie reassessed the market and returned for Moustakas.

All too often, the protagonist will experience a disappointing alternate ending. After arduous negotiations, a couple “no’s” are exchanged. A few days later, Doobie takes a weaker offer from another rival without asking Protagonist for any counteroffers.

It sure feels like the protagonist softened him up for another shark. And that’s probably exactly what happened. We all have our pride. Sometimes, rightly or wrongly, we become entrenched in our positions. An opportunistic third party can offer a face-saving escape while leaving our favorite protagonist (us) playing the role of jilted lover.

Alas, such is fantasy baseball…