Chase Utley entered the season with two big questions to answer – could he stay healthy and how hard would age related decline bite? The answers turned out to be yes (good!) and pretty hard (not so good). Despite that, Utley turned in $15 of value per Mr. Sandman with an average preseason cost of $10 according to Fantasy Pros. That makes him an uncommon known commodity who turned a profit.

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I’m here to introduce or perhaps reinforce an idea today. People always, always, ALWAYS oversimplify things. Why didn’t such-and-such team win? It’s because so-and-so made a bad pitch. We readily gobble up that answer even though it’s probably one of a thousand ways to explain why a team lost a contest. Fantasy baseball has its share of oversimplification too.

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Jonathan Schoop recently concluded a rookie season in which he often batted at the bottom of the Orioles lineup and hit the fourth most home runs of pure second baseman (i.e. those listed by Zach Sanders). The 23-year-old was worth a dismal -$2 according to Sanders and generally went undrafted prior to the season. Despite the forgettable campaign, the youngster showed flashes of fantasy viability. He’ll just have to solve some problems first.

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The arbitration season of ottoneu is upon us and will last through November 14. Often, the best way to teach is via example. Today I’m going to provide my list of bids and the thought process behind a few notable selections. In some cases, I’ll discuss non-selections as well. Remember, these picks can be changed at any time and aren’t finalized until the conclusion of the arbitration season.

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I really like using relievers in fantasy baseball, especially the elite kind. I might harp a bit on this subject. It’s hard to purchase more than one Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman because they often cost over $20. While I shouldn’t pay $100 to roster the top five closers, it’s usually justifiable to spend more than the minimum on your bullpen.
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It was a fantastic season for Edwin Encarnacion, but his owners are left wondering “what if?” What if he didn’t miss 30-some games with injury. He could have been the top first baseman in baseball. Zach Sanders tabbed Encarnacion’s 79 runs, 34 home runs, 98 RBI, two steals, and .268 average as worth $20. Per FantasyPros, he cost about $28 to draft. While he didn’t return a profit for his owners, it was a good season to hold shares of Encarnacion.
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It’s time to dust off those ottoneu rosters. Offseason arbitration begins today and will run through November 15. While you don’t need to make your selections immediately, it’s never too early to start formulating your plan of attack.

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Ryan Howard has always been a charged topic on FanGraphs. He’s long been considered among the worst “values” in real baseball. Whatever complaints you may have about WAR, you probably agree it’s good enough for a quick and dirty analysis. Howard has posted -1.0 WAR over the last three seasons (yes, that’s a negative) and just 1.5 WAR over the last five seasons. Clearly, we’re not talking about a very good real world player. I won’t bother you with how much he’s been paid for that nonexistent production.

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While gathering opinions on Twitter about Alex Rodriguez, I ran into an interesting issue – ethical reasons to not roster a player. In the past, it has never really occurred to me to not roster or cut a player based on his off-the-field actions. Certainly, I will adjust my valuations. We’ve seen divorce eat into player contributions, and ill-timed comments can lead to a change in role or a trade. But not until the Adrian Peterson fiasco has it ever occurred to me to boycott a player for ethical reasons. Perhaps I’m behind the curve, but I want to explore the topic in more detail.

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Last Friday, I created a place to celebrate our accomplishments, dance a little jig, and bask in the radiance of fantasy glory. We didn’t all do well in 2014 – most of us have at least one disappointing roster. So, I present the pit of despair. This is your chance to bitch, moan, and gripe about your lousy luck. Get it out of your system, then let’s take a good hard look in the mirror. I said it last week and I’ll say it again – failure is the most efficient method of learning. We just have to recognize why we failed. Read the rest of this entry »