Jonathan Schoop: Power and Impatience

Jonathan Schoop recently concluded a rookie season in which he often batted at the bottom of the Orioles lineup and hit the fourth most home runs of pure second baseman (i.e. those listed by Zach Sanders). The 23-year-old was worth a dismal -$2 according to Sanders and generally went undrafted prior to the season. Despite the forgettable campaign, the youngster showed flashes of fantasy viability. He’ll just have to solve some problems first.

Let’s start with the good. When Schoop gets into one, he can really get into it. At the plate, he sometimes reminds me of a less explosive Carlos Gomez. Here’s video of a sweet swing off knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. He ranked 47th in average fly ball distance at 291 feet, which surrounded him with names like Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, and Neil Walker. His HR/FB ratio of 13.1 percent was similar to players like Gomez, Michael Brantley, and Kyle Seager. There’s no guarantee he’ll recapture his power output in 2015, but it’s a good sign to see him swimming with the sharks.

Unfortunately, Schoop’s remaining fantasy profile is mostly negative. His batting average was abysmal at .209. His on base percentage was relatively worse at .244. Much of his batting woes can be a attributed to a .249 BABIP. However, a 16.4 percent infield fly ball rate and 13.9 percent line drive rate account for the low BABIP. As statisticians, we should expect regression to the mean in his batted ball profile and BABIP, which could pull him up to a .250 average and .300 OBP.

Before waving the regression wand, let’s take a look at his plate discipline. Schoop was among the most aggressive hitters in the league last season. He swung at 41 percent of pitches out of the zone (league average was 31 percent) and 68 percent of pitches in the zone (average 63 percent). His contact rate was five percent below league average. Mostly due to the aggression, his first strike rate was 65 percent. It’s hard to work from a hole so frequently.

Aggression at the plate is an interesting subject, one that is tied to the much misinterpreted (and outdated) Moneyball Method. Schoop walked just 2.7 percent of the time this season. In minor league campaigns, he’s been somewhat better about drawing free passes, although he’s never been Victor Martinez. He also struck out 25.4 percent of the time, thanks to a 13.9 percent swinging strike rate.

On the one hand, many would like to see him buff his walk rate, which would suggest a less aggressive approach. On the other hand, with that whiff rate, it seems clear that he has holes in his swing. An aggressive approach can be used to mitigate a truly brutal strikeout problem. I wouldn’t call a 65 wRC+ a rousing success, but the general strategy of swinging early and often could still be a winner for Schoop.

The obvious prescription is to cut down on swings at pitches outside of the strike zone. Ideally, Schoop would remain aggressive on pitches over the plate to maximize the value of his power while minimizing the pain of his swing-and-miss tendencies. Aggressive hitters are best when they spray the ball to all fields, which is another obvious area for improvement.

If you draw a line down the center of the field, about two-thirds of his balls in play are to the left side. Let’s compare this with the left-handed version of Pablo Sandoval.

Sandoval’s distribution of contact is much more evenly spread. My totally unverifiable theory is that Schoop is trying to drive too many pitches that should just be deposited to the opposite field. Unlike with a guy like Ryan Howard whose swing makes it impossible to hit anything but fly balls to the opposite field, Schoop’s swing looks properly balanced for an all-fields approach.

So, concluding thoughts. Schoop’s power at a middle infield position is intriguing, as is his age and home ball park. There are some obvious areas for improvement, but they’re also relatively solvable issues. He’ll need to improve upon a .209 average. You shouldn’t expect more than a couple stolen bases. Lastly, unless he starts hitting like Adam Jones, I doubt he’ll move from the bottom of the order. As such, we’re looking at a one category producer with upside. There are worse targets at the end of a draft. As a potential keeper, he’s best suited for a dynasty format, where an owner can afford to use some roster spots on long term development projects.