The Pit Of Despair

Last Friday, I created a place to celebrate our accomplishments, dance a little jig, and bask in the radiance of fantasy glory. We didn’t all do well in 2014 – most of us have at least one disappointing roster. So, I present the pit of despair. This is your chance to bitch, moan, and gripe about your lousy luck. Get it out of your system, then let’s take a good hard look in the mirror. I said it last week and I’ll say it again – failure is the most efficient method of learning. We just have to recognize why we failed.

Worst Decisions

Those who peeked in on The Daily Grind this season probably know that I do a lot of roster churning. It’s a god way to uncover diamonds in the rough, but you’ll also drop some A+ talent from time to time (I cut Jose Bautista early in his breakout so I could stream some pointless pitcher). I blew it on a few high quality players this season too.

Devin Mesoraco was a soul crushing mistake. I drafted him in the last round of several leagues and owned a share of him in five leagues. I also cut him in early April in all five leagues, often eventually landing on Dioner Navarro (Derek Norris was another common fall back). Passing on 25 HR and 80 RBI from the catcher slot – at a very keepable price – breaks my heart. What was I thinking?

In this case, I’m not inclined to be too hard on myself. Sure, I probably could have found somebody else to cut. My scouting take on Mesoraco was that he had incredible latent power. The outburst was not slightly surprising on a subjective level. I let the data make my decision, and he simply hadn’t been much in the majors prior to this season. The interplay of when to trust my scouting take over the data is one of the hardest things about being a fantasy analyst.

I grabbed Charlie Blackmon for one, two home run game in early April. I said, “surely this player will regress,” and immediately cut him. Then I missed out on a massive month of April. Shucks. He did eventually regress, but he also seems likely to remain the leadoff hitter for a team that calls Coors Field home. I had a similar experience with Corey Dickerson, although he wasn’t getting predictable starts at the time and the league in question doesn’t have enough bench space to roster part-timers.

I spent some time with Dellin Betances and Wade Davis, only to stream them away for position player plugs. In this case, I don’t remember my exact alternatives, but I know I was caught between a rock and a hard place. I had to cut somebody decent to fill an empty position. Still, I bet I could do much better in retrospect.

Biggest Regrets

I have two regrets this season – my 10th place finish in Blog Wars and my inability to profit from 50/50 daily fantasy leagues. Let’s talk Blog Wars first. Here’s the team I drafted for a 13-team, deep roster experts league.

I thought I did really well here. The rotation is weak at first glance, but that isn’t the only thing that sank my season. Instead, my position players never got it together. Shin-Soo Choo, Jayson Werth, and Will Venable were supposed to provide a multi-dimensional five category outfield. My catcher tandem had upside for 50 or more home runs and nearly 200 RBI. I should have stolen more than enough bases to compete in the category. Instead, I came dead last with just 54 swipes. I should have anticipated heavy regression from Choo, Werth, and Venable. But I didn’t really have any way to predict only Ian Kinsler would take double digit bags.

In retrospect, my worst decision might have been the money spent on Miguel Cabrera. I was confident that I could make up the difference with pitching sleepers, but I should have accounted for the high quality of competition. Had I not purchased Cabrera, I could have picked up Clayton Kershaw, Masahiro Tanaka, AND Kyle Seager. I usually advocate acquiring one of the top two players in an auction, but I’m going to have to revisit that idea over the offseason.

As for my DFS woes, I’m not heartbroken that I struggled with low payout grinding. The purpose of 50/50’s and similar contests is to enter a high volume and make your money over time. I prefer playing the loaded lottery known as Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP). Those are deep tournaments where the top 10 to 15 percent of participants get a slice of the pie. If you “win the lottery” you can take home a massive return.

I spiked $700 on a $1 buy-in early in the season, which provided the seed money I needed to attack DFS in a more systematic manner. GPP’s are about maximizing your upside since you have to outscore thousands of others. In a 50/50, you want to aim for reliably decent scores.

The frustrating part for me was looking back at the last week and realizing I spent several hours to win $2 or (more often) lose $14 on my $100+ of entries. Moreover, for every $100 risked in a 50/50, the upside is about $180. Obviously, you’re actually aiming to make about $110 on your $100 of entries. As I mentioned earlier, I got $700 from a single dollar in a GPP. I find the upside of riches so much more captivating.

Still, I’m supposed to be a fantasy expert. I accept that 50/50’s aren’t ideally suited to my playing style and personal preferences, but I should still be able to master the format relatively quickly. Instead, I’ve decided to ignore them entirely.

I don’t even know if I actually failed at the format. I played about 20 days of 50/50’s and broke about even. Statistically, that could mean just about anything. I do know that I lost patience for the game and just don’t see the value proposition.

Parting Thoughts

What’s bothering you from this season? Perhaps we can tease out some lessons to draw from your mistakes and/or poor luck. Even if we can’t, look at this as a therapeutic opportunity.