The Pit Of Despair
Last Friday, I created a place to celebrate our accomplishments, dance a little jig, and bask in the radiance of fantasy glory. We didn’t all do well in 2014 – most of us have at least one disappointing roster. So, I present the pit of despair. This is your chance to bitch, moan, and gripe about your lousy luck. Get it out of your system, then let’s take a good hard look in the mirror. I said it last week and I’ll say it again – failure is the most efficient method of learning. We just have to recognize why we failed.
Worst Decisions
Those who peeked in on The Daily Grind this season probably know that I do a lot of roster churning. It’s a god way to uncover diamonds in the rough, but you’ll also drop some A+ talent from time to time (I cut Jose Bautista early in his breakout so I could stream some pointless pitcher). I blew it on a few high quality players this season too.
Devin Mesoraco was a soul crushing mistake. I drafted him in the last round of several leagues and owned a share of him in five leagues. I also cut him in early April in all five leagues, often eventually landing on Dioner Navarro (Derek Norris was another common fall back). Passing on 25 HR and 80 RBI from the catcher slot – at a very keepable price – breaks my heart. What was I thinking?
In this case, I’m not inclined to be too hard on myself. Sure, I probably could have found somebody else to cut. My scouting take on Mesoraco was that he had incredible latent power. The outburst was not slightly surprising on a subjective level. I let the data make my decision, and he simply hadn’t been much in the majors prior to this season. The interplay of when to trust my scouting take over the data is one of the hardest things about being a fantasy analyst.
I grabbed Charlie Blackmon for one, two home run game in early April. I said, “surely this player will regress,” and immediately cut him. Then I missed out on a massive month of April. Shucks. He did eventually regress, but he also seems likely to remain the leadoff hitter for a team that calls Coors Field home. I had a similar experience with Corey Dickerson, although he wasn’t getting predictable starts at the time and the league in question doesn’t have enough bench space to roster part-timers.
I spent some time with Dellin Betances and Wade Davis, only to stream them away for position player plugs. In this case, I don’t remember my exact alternatives, but I know I was caught between a rock and a hard place. I had to cut somebody decent to fill an empty position. Still, I bet I could do much better in retrospect.
Biggest Regrets
I have two regrets this season – my 10th place finish in Blog Wars and my inability to profit from 50/50 daily fantasy leagues. Let’s talk Blog Wars first. Here’s the team I drafted for a 13-team, deep roster experts league.
I thought I did really well here. The rotation is weak at first glance, but that isn’t the only thing that sank my season. Instead, my position players never got it together. Shin-Soo Choo, Jayson Werth, and Will Venable were supposed to provide a multi-dimensional five category outfield. My catcher tandem had upside for 50 or more home runs and nearly 200 RBI. I should have stolen more than enough bases to compete in the category. Instead, I came dead last with just 54 swipes. I should have anticipated heavy regression from Choo, Werth, and Venable. But I didn’t really have any way to predict only Ian Kinsler would take double digit bags.
In retrospect, my worst decision might have been the money spent on Miguel Cabrera. I was confident that I could make up the difference with pitching sleepers, but I should have accounted for the high quality of competition. Had I not purchased Cabrera, I could have picked up Clayton Kershaw, Masahiro Tanaka, AND Kyle Seager. I usually advocate acquiring one of the top two players in an auction, but I’m going to have to revisit that idea over the offseason.
As for my DFS woes, I’m not heartbroken that I struggled with low payout grinding. The purpose of 50/50’s and similar contests is to enter a high volume and make your money over time. I prefer playing the loaded lottery known as Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP). Those are deep tournaments where the top 10 to 15 percent of participants get a slice of the pie. If you “win the lottery” you can take home a massive return.
I spiked $700 on a $1 buy-in early in the season, which provided the seed money I needed to attack DFS in a more systematic manner. GPP’s are about maximizing your upside since you have to outscore thousands of others. In a 50/50, you want to aim for reliably decent scores.
The frustrating part for me was looking back at the last week and realizing I spent several hours to win $2 or (more often) lose $14 on my $100+ of entries. Moreover, for every $100 risked in a 50/50, the upside is about $180. Obviously, you’re actually aiming to make about $110 on your $100 of entries. As I mentioned earlier, I got $700 from a single dollar in a GPP. I find the upside of riches so much more captivating.
Still, I’m supposed to be a fantasy expert. I accept that 50/50’s aren’t ideally suited to my playing style and personal preferences, but I should still be able to master the format relatively quickly. Instead, I’ve decided to ignore them entirely.
I don’t even know if I actually failed at the format. I played about 20 days of 50/50’s and broke about even. Statistically, that could mean just about anything. I do know that I lost patience for the game and just don’t see the value proposition.
Parting Thoughts
What’s bothering you from this season? Perhaps we can tease out some lessons to draw from your mistakes and/or poor luck. Even if we can’t, look at this as a therapeutic opportunity.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Good topic. I drafted Choo, too. Everything he was supposed to be in Texas was too much to pass up. If only we had known about what Texas really was, and that Choo would play through an injury all year.
JJ Hardy was a minor thorn in my side. I bought him to be the player he had always been. There were no clear warning signs pointing to Hardy trading previously reliable SS homers for a higher average.
Rosenthal was bad for both of our teams, too. Sure, he was OK. But he certainly wasn’t his 2013 self worthy of your 5th pick and the amount of auction dollars I ponied up for him. I have a major keeper decision coming up with Rosey, too.
Biggest regret: 12 team keeper league, each team able to keep up to 10 players from their roster. my final keeper spot from last year heading into this year came down to a choice between Anthony Rendon and Jedd Gyorko….. I inevitably opted for Gyorko for the power he had shown at the 2nd base position and just felt I didn’t get enough plate appearances from Rendon to know how good he would be….. what an idiot I feel like now
A failed fantasy team does not necessarily mean there were mistakes. Often we try to find reasons in places there are none.
For example, if Tulowitzki stayed healthy all year we look back and say he just had bad luck in the injury department and we should of not labeled him as injury prone. But if he gets hurt, like he did, we say “I should of known he was going to get hurt.”
When you are constantly streaming players, you will always end up dropping breakout players. If you have your hands on 20 different waiver wire players, odds are there a few them will be breakouts. If you can correctly pick those guys, then you can afford to use Benjamins as drafting paper.
I counted too much on young players: Harper, Machado, Bogaerts, Polanco, even to an extent Jason Heyward and Wil Myers. I learned not to project so much on important picks. Get solid production over what I think will happen.
I drafted Dickerson for $1, then cut him in a keeper league when he wasn’t a starter. I picked him back up, and now might have him as one of my 6 keepers for $10. With $5/year increases after that, the original price tag would have made him an elite instead of solid asset.
I dropped Hair deGrom in favor of Kevin Gausman after deGrom had two iffy starts in late May early June. After my pitching staff was derailed during the playoff stretch with injuries (Homer Bailey and Ryu) and innings limits (Jesse Hahn), my 16 team H2H offense that boasted the likes of Trout, Jose Abreu, Posey, Alex Gorden, and Hunter Pence was sorely let down by the missing presence of the best hair since Fabio.
love your ID name- MR BEAN!!!
First draft picks went Kershaw, Fielder, Harper, Bruce. Then dealt Kershaw when injured for Minor and Adam Jones. Oy.
-Panic-trading Bumgarner for Belt because I was deep in pitching and didn’t have a 1B. Less than 2 weeks later he had a broken hand and was taking up my DL slot, ended up dropping him after the concussion issues and never got meaningful contribution from him.
-The $11 I spent on Venable and Khris Davis, dropping Davis when he was putrid over the first 6 weeks.
-Dropping Duda early in the season when I still didn’t have a 1B (ended up playing Carlos Santana there for the stretch run after trading Polanco; got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs 6-5-1)
Every year in the league Brad runs I end up with money left on the table, even though I both understand the $310 budget means you should bid higher on top guys, and even though I tell myself I won’t do that again. I think I had $11 left, even after overpaying on SP towards the end because I had to spend it on something. With two weeks left in the season I was (barely) in first, and then was awful to finish up and wonder if bidding more early would have meant not dropping out of it.
Are your 50-50 teams materially different from your GPP plays? I was GPP only but towards the end of the season I really was considering just entering GPP teams into 50-50’s. The thought process really should be pretty much the same for both contest types….find good value for SP (park, player talent, opponent), good value for hitter stacks and call it a day.
I always use whoever I think is the best pitcher in 50/50’s and fit a lineup around him. In a GPP, I’ll take more risk on pitchers if I see a high potential offensive guy I really want to squeeze in.
This year I’m “that guy”… I actually won all four of my leagues. But I still got to make a few whoppers in dynasty play. I had held on to Devin Mesoraco for 2+ years in a rebuild because I believed in him, then dropped him the first week of this season. I traded a first round pick and two good prospects (Alex Meyer and Kolten Wong) for Josh Hamilton. Also traded future value to bulk up on closers at the trade deadline — Koji Uehara and Glen Perkins. It’s a good thing I ended up winning anyway (and let’s be honest, H2H playoffs are luck as much as anything) because otherwise my ass would hurt from the self-kicking. That’s the amazing thing about FB, it’s surprising how much you can get wrong and still win if things bounce right, and other times you can have the perfect plan and have it unravel with injuries or Biogenesis suspensions :).
In another league I advanced to the finals on literally the last at-bat of the semi-final round, a Josh Donaldson walkoff home run, and came back to win the finals on the last day after getting thrashed all week. I actually felt bad for my opponents. I can only assume karma’s going to balance out with a vengeance next year, but for now it’s pretty funny.
I won both my leagues as well but biggest mistakes:
-Picking up then dropping Kluber first week or two for a streamer, someone scooped him up and enjoyed a, what, top 3 pitcher season.
-Trading Cruz for Wood during Cruz’s power binge that I thought was due some mean regression. Cruz kept crushing and Wood went to the pen. (Though this did eventually pay off in H2H playoffs.)
And @Sean, in both my finals I was getting crushed thru the week only for huge weekends to deliver me the title, my first fantasy baseball title(s).
I plucked Rendon off waivers in two leagues, only to stupidly let him go for nothing….in my defense, I had Miggy and Ortiz as my CO in one league and Jose Abreu + Josh Donaldson in another.
I stupidly also drafted Kipnis way too high in the Donaldson league.
Oof, drafting Kipnis in the 2nd round would be another of my blunders.
I did exactly the same thing. And I refused to dump him because I kept expecting him to get it together at any moment.
He never did.
ha same. Picked up Betts on his late season surge and I plugged him in there thru the playoffs. That Kipnis upside was sooo tantalizing.
This was my first year back after a six year break, so I had some learning curve issues early in the season. I dealt away some kid named Kluber after a couple of rocky April starts for a package that included Francisco Liriano. I also made a couple of ill-timed deals for Jaime Garcia and Yu Darvish, neither of them threw a single pitch in anger for my squad. Come to think of it, I also dealt Cole Hamels after his first start off the DL for cents on the dollar because I’d convinced myself his shoulder wasn’t going to hold up.
I got laughed at in a draft room after bidding $4 on Kluber.
I was in 3rd place after a couple of months in my dynasty league so I started to go for it right before everyone on my team got hurt. (Cain, Lee, Goldy, etc.) Finished in 7th.
Biggest boner: Traded Springer for CJ Wilson in that brief period where I thought I was competitive.
Others:
When Beltre was out early, I thought: “No worries, I have Seager.” That was the time of year he picked to be awful and I cut him after a couple weeks.
Picking up Josh Harrison, then cutting him a week later.
A bunch of guys I thought would be dollar all stars or top 10 at their position didn’t work out: Pedroia, Jason Castro, Segura, Soriano, Travis Wood, Eovaldi, Beltran, Hamilton, etc.
There are leagues where Rendon and Kluber went undrafted?
Why does that surprise you?
Um, cause they looked to have good seasons… certainly owning-worthy seasons with significant upside.
Rendon and Kluber were both mid 200’s in ADP in all my leagues. In hindsight that seems absurd, of course, but nobody knew that then
I’m pretty much the exact opposite kind of player than the roster churner, at least for position players. Before dropping a player, I take a look at video, stats, and injury history to see if there is a reason to hope for a positive bounceback. For example, in one league, Matt Kemp sat on my bench for much of the first part of the year because he was recovering from various injuries and position uncertainty. But none of the injuries seemed like they should hurt his long-term production, and a move off center field would result in less physical stress. So once he settled into right field, he slotted into my outfield and the rest is history.
Pitchers are inherently more volatile, though, so more churn is inevitable, especially in the bullpen. So I usually figure that only about 40% of my pitchers will stay healthy and productive throughout the year, so scouring velocity charts and other indicators of injury is fruitful when either trading or deciding to drop one pitcher for another.
20 Team roto Really bad luck with many players
Choo WTF!!- Team injuries; less SB, less homers, RBI, BA
A Jackson- Didn’t Bat 1st for Tigers killed his runs; Maybe not a 15 home guy
McCutchen- Should not have traded
Pedroia- Old and complacent team?
Segura- Historiclly bad year for him
I forgot to post in the Place to Celebrate, maybe I’ll do that after, but while I had a good overall year (Four teams: 1st, 1st, 2nd and a team that moved from 6th to 5th on the last day) I certainly made some mistakes.
The saddest mistake of all was in one of my 1st place teams: I dropped Corey Kluber early due to thinking he was struggling for a guy I thought was an excellent sleeper, Lance Lynn. Lynn turned out good, but…well, you all know how Kluber turned out. Ironically, it was one of the two teams I had named Corey Kluber Fanklub (The other was the other 1st place team. Hmmm…). The really awful thing is I then managed to get him back about two weeks later, but then he had another bad outing (Maybe two IIRC) and I felt he was going to be an inconsistant option…so I dropped him for freaking JOSH BECKETT. Ugh. I also dropped Kyle Seager when he started poorly, but fortunately I managed to get him back quickly and never let him go.
I drafted Jean Segura in practically every league I was in, which naturally turned out dreadful. I actually dropped Kluber in my 2nd place league too, but picked him up again swiftly by dropping Kyle Lohse and its waiver wire was poorer so I was never tempted to drop him again there. I drafted Brian McCann or Wilin Rosario in all four leagues, mostly Rosario, which didn’t turn out well, though McCann managed to provide enough value in the end. My 5th place team was a disaster with Chris Davis, Jean Segura, David Wright, Jay Bruce (Who was also in one of my 1st place leagues) and more.
hah! I did the same thing with CK in one of my leagues-so happy to have plucked him off waivers after his 8th start and didn’t look back.
I finished second despite trading low for kipniss, Bruce, and Votto, cutting kluber, and drafting Gio as my ace
some moves work out, some don’t. You can’t be scared to take some risks. Of these disappointments, which ones can be deemed mistakes at the time rather than using hindsight?
I went over what a debacle my draft ended up being on another post. But I emerged with the “excellent” Votto, Harper, Choo, Rios, Josh Hamilton, and Pedro Alvarez, not to mention multiple misses on the pitching side of things.
The biggest mistake I made post-draft was in not recognizing my problems early enough to get some prime waiver-wire options. Just kept limping along, thinking my “stars” will eventually perform like stars and everything will just go swimmingly. Things did not actually turn around. I did find a few WW gems to help (Devin Mescoraco replacing whatever wooden post I had at catcher, Todd Frazier replacing Alvarez, Brantley to replace whoever), then snagged a few helpful call-ups (Kennys Vargas, Jorges Soler). That, plus my super streaming pitching skills got me into the playoffs, where I got butchered.
It’s actually amusing to look at how much turnover there ended up being on my roster. I could count on Cano (despite his down year) and Stanton (until he got injured) and thaaaaaat was pretty much it.
I ran away with a H2H points league during the season, but lacking an injured Goldschmidt in the playoff round of the final four, I got greedy and took an unnecessary risk: starting Carlos Carrasco (in middle of hot streak) vs. the Tigers instead of super-reliable Alex Wood vs. the Rangers. The 18 points I didn’t score that day led me to pitch David Robertson that Sunday night to limit the risk of losing to my opponent’s start by Kuroda. Robertson blew the save and lost me 9 points, and I ended up losing the matchup by 2.5 points. My opponent that week won the league championship in the next round.
In a 12-owner, 40-man rosters A.L. keeper roto league, my biggest mistake was using 4 spots of my 15-man keeper list to corner the market on middle infielders, keeping Kipnis, Pedroia, Lowrie and Brad Miller (one of whom qualified for DH in my league)even though only Miller was at a price low enough that I might reasonably expect much surplus value. My decision did drive up the price on the few quality middle infielders available in our auction and left some rivals getting no one of quality, but as a foursome, my middle infielders produced significantly less value than I paid even after adjusting for the inflation of a keepers’ league. Had I not overpaid on the four, I would have landed two of my top targets for reasonable prices, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager (the two went for $39 combined), but instead, working with a smaller budget, I ended up with Austin Jackson and David Freese (for $29 combined).
That mistake coupled with an injury-ridden season: I lost Kole Calhoun, George Springer, Oswaldo Arcia, Adam Lind, Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish, Alex Rios, Kipnis and Pedroia for chunks of the season, and in a league as deep as ours with 480 players rostered for just the A.L., I didn’t have enough spare pieces to fill in or enough surplus production to trade for areas of weakness.
On the flip side, I did draft Mookie Betts in March (we have a 17-man snake draft after our 23-man auction), I stuck with Carlos Carrasco all year, picked Carlos Rodon a month before the MLB draft in the hope he’s go to an AL team (and even better he was taken by the quickly-promoting White Sox rather than the more cautious Mariners)and swung a deadline deal for a low-priced Josh Donaldson.
The lesson for me is to be wary of keeping players mainly to create a market shortage that will hurt some of your rivals if those player carry prices that only make them borderline keepers. This coming season, while I have a lot of viable candidates as keepers, only one costs more than $10 (Chris Sale at $25). At the end of the day, if your keepers are almost all $1 to $10, you are greatly limiting your downside risk and creating a bigger and more flexible budget for the auction.
I play AL-Only Roto, too.
Who would have thought that both Pedrioa and Kipnis would be busts this season? My biggest bust this season was an $18 Billy Butler.
I did get Cruz for only $18 and he made my season. (I had Carlos Beltran ahead of him on my depth chart, but another owner beat me out, so I dropped down to Cruz.) I really think he doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Yes, Trout deserves the MVP, but would the O’s have made it as far as they did without Cruz? I think not.
I could easily say I had no regrets since I won my league running away, but I do have regrets. In June, I was jockeying for first, bouncing in and out of first. So, I made moves that I think we’ll really hurt me next year, but like Billy Beane, I went for the win this year. Unlike Billy Beane, I did win.
My regrets: (FYI, I play in a AL-Only, Roto-Keepers league.)
Trading Josh Donaldson ($10) & Lorenzo Cain ($4) for Kyle Seager ($13) & Jacob Ellsbury ($31)
> I made this trade for steals and Cain out stole Ellsbury in the 2nd half
This trade is one I really didn’t need to do, but I felt I needed a solid 4th starter. Here it is:
J.D. Martinez ($1), Chris Carter ($7), & Drew Hutchinson ($3) for Jered Weaver ($19) and Torii Hunter ($15).
> J.D. Martinez looks like he would have been a great $1 keeper next season and Carter could be great for HRs next season.
Oh well, I have a $1 Zach Britton and a $1 Carlos Carrasco and I did win.
Don’t feel too bad, I had Rosario and Gomes as keepers and decided that Gomes was the one less likely to continue to produce, so I traded him for Lindor and watched Rosario sit on the Rockies’ bench too often. Ugh.