Author Archive

Corey Klubot Activate!

Entering the season, some fantasy owners thought Corey Kluber could turn in a good year – I bet a lot of them frequent these pages. He was coming off a below average 3.85 ERA, but FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all estimated a figure closer to 3.25. Given a decent strikeout rate of 8.31 K/9 and solid 2.02 BB/9, he made for a tidy mid-late draft target. His average cost was $5 (I generally paid about $8).

Now we know that the Klubot was a lot better than “good.” After all, he earned a great nickname like Klubot. Generally, you don’t earn a cool moniker with mediocre performance (unless it rhymes, i.e. Big Game Games). His 18 wins, 269 strikeouts (10.27 K/9), 2.44 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP ranked him as the fourth best fantasy pitcher, worth $28. Talk about profit.

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Ottoneu Offseason: Be Deliberate And Methodical

The Phillies “rebuild” (or lack thereof) is a common source of scorn around these parts, but there’s a method to their madness. Interim team president Pat Gillick spoke with reporters on Monday about the club’s plans, and his comments resonated with me. The Phillies are in the same position as I was in ottoneu last offseason – few real assets with a need to get younger and cheaper. And so, today’s topic is about being methodical.

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What To Do With Johnny Cueto

Ever since 2012, I’ve been waiting for Johnny Cueto to put up a monster season. At the time, I had identified some markers that compared favorably with Roy Halladay. That’s not to say I expected Cueto to become a true beast like Halladay. However, having traits in common with such an elite pitcher probably improves the likelihood of a fantasy breakout.

We were finally treated to glory with a 20 win, 242 strikeout, 2.25 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP season worth $34. He was the second most valuable pitcher per Zach Sanders, and he was arguably the most profitable (Corey Kluber is the alternative). According to FantasyPros, owners paid just $7 to acquire Cueto this season.
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Brandon McCarthy Battles The Luck Dragon

On the surface, Brandon McCarthy wasn’t much of anything last season. His 10 wins, 175 strikeouts, 4.05 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP over 200 innings marked him as a fantasy replacement level pitcher. Which, in a sense, was fine. Nobody was spending money on him headed into the season. He performed exactly as expected, right? Not so much.

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The Hardest Things About Drafting Starting Pitchers

Two things make it hard for me to justify spending precious auction dollars on starting pitching. I touched on this topic in my conclusion to yesterday’s Madison Bumgarner post, so let’s just pick up where I left off.

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Madison Bumgarner: Postseason Hero

If you’ve had the misfortune to be stricken by amnesia, allow me to remind you – Madison Bumgarner was fantastic this postseason. Per a pet statistic called ChampAdded, he was responsible for about 90 percent of the Giants’ World Series victory. In a sense, I’ve already written about Bumgarner this winter. Now is a good time to share the results from the question I asked one month ago – how much would you pay for him?

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Ottoneu Rebuild Strategy

Any keeper league that allows offseason trading will have its share of rebuilding teams. The guy who drafted Chris Davis, Joey Votto, and Cliff Lee will need time to recover from those dreadful picks. If the standard of excellence is high enough in your league, a perfectly adequate roster might still qualify for a touch of rebuilding.

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The Updated Factor Grid

During the season, my Daily Grind column relied heavily upon what I called the Factor Grid. It’s a simple spreadsheet with a few of the most important park factors. With those in mind, fantasy owners and daily fantasy players can wisely select the hitters in the best offensive venues and vice versa. It’s a simple but effective strategy.

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Should Vetoes Be Allowed?

Vetoes are a popular check and balance to the trade market, but it’s unclear whether they should even be allowed in most leagues. I have a firm opinion on the topic, but my main goal is to create a discussion about the pros and cons of trade vetoes as we head into Thanksgiving break.

The purpose of the veto is to prevent unfair trades from affecting the league. It seems, in theory, to suggest an owner’s sole sources of surplus value should be from the draft or waiver wire. They should not be able to acquire surplus value from their rivals.

This argument holds more merit in a league with widely varying skill levels. For example, if you put Eno Sarris and your mom into the same league, it stands to reason that Eno would have a big advantage. Eno’s probably many, many times better at fantasy baseball than your mom. Probably.

There’s nothing wrong with unbalanced leagues, the kind that let co-workers, families, or childhood friends share something over which to bond. However, judging from the comments here on RotoGraphs, most of you are in cutthroat leagues with a competitive field of owners. I’m sure there are one or two laggards, but every owner knows what they’re doing.

In such an environment, the use case for a veto is seemingly marginalized. If everybody knows what they’re doing, then a seemingly lopsided trade was made intentionally. Unless you can prove collusion, it’s probably just a case of divergent values. Is it fair to veto a trade because one owner sees things differently than the majority of the league?

Let’s consider the Mike Trout trade I discussed on Monday in the ottoneu league FanGraphs Staff Two.

I received:

$55 Mike Trout
$14 Jonathan Lucroy

A rival received:

$5 Corey Seager
$4 Steven Souza
$3 Jace Peterson

The general assessment was that I rooked my rival. One commenter said he would consider a veto of this trade. However, another commenter did the math using Steamer values and found that both Trout and Lucroy are overpriced. My own price sheet has them as slight values, but only because I manipulate what I consider the “neutral price” to favor skill sets I like.

So we have a trade where sentiment strongly favors me, but the math is less rosy. Moreover, this is a situation where mine was perhaps the only team that could afford to acquire Trout. His owner would have been forced to cut other high quality players like Robinson Cano, Stephen Strasburg, or David Price if he kept Trout. With their price tags, those players wouldn’t have returned much.

This is a situation where both owners accomplished a specific, reasonable goal, and the math is at least somewhat supportive of the trade being fair. By comparison, if I had made the same trade in a standard Yahoo league, one where prospects hold almost no value, there would be a stronger cause for a veto.

In a competitive league, the best remedy to an owner who consistently makes bad trades is to replace him or her. Using the veto is simply masking the symptoms of a broken league. I’ve seen leagues where trading stops completely, owners leave, or the veto is used tactically to prevent other rivals from improving.

My advice regarding vetoes is to enact a league constitution with clear guidelines regarding when a veto can be used. In my own leagues, a trade must be “clearly unconscionable.” Owners participating in such trades, especially the seller, are subject to removal at the commissioner’s discretion.

These are some of my high level thoughts about vetoes. They’re a dangerous tool that can take away from the enjoyment of a league. A veto is like taking advil for a sore pitching shoulder. It will mask the pain, but it won’t fix your problem. In fact, if you keep pitching, the advil will just let you do more damage. Vetoes are the same way, they just make the league even worse. I always prefer to attack the cause of a problem rather than a symptom.

I didn’t mean to make this so much about how I feel, it just happened that way. Mainly, I’m interest in how you feel about vetoes. So get to it.


Steven Souza and Michael Taylor: Buried in Washington

The Washington Nationals have a tip top outfield of Denard Span, Bryce Harper, and Jayson Werth. The trio is productive when healthy, but they all spend time with the team trainer. That’s where Steven Souza and Michael Taylor enter the picture. They’re both thoroughly blocked by veteran studs, and they both have massive fantasy potential.

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