Corey Klubot Activate!

Entering the season, some fantasy owners thought Corey Kluber could turn in a good year – I bet a lot of them frequent these pages. He was coming off a below average 3.85 ERA, but FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all estimated a figure closer to 3.25. Given a decent strikeout rate of 8.31 K/9 and solid 2.02 BB/9, he made for a tidy mid-late draft target. His average cost was $5 (I generally paid about $8).

Now we know that the Klubot was a lot better than “good.” After all, he earned a great nickname like Klubot. Generally, you don’t earn a cool moniker with mediocre performance (unless it rhymes, i.e. Big Game Games). His 18 wins, 269 strikeouts (10.27 K/9), 2.44 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP ranked him as the fourth best fantasy pitcher, worth $28. Talk about profit.

Let’s talk about who Kluber is as a pitcher and what we should expect in 2015. Dominant strikeout and walk numbers carried him to a 2.44 ERA, 2.35 FIP, and 2.57 xFIP. He’s supported by a 11.9 percent swinging strike rate. He was homer prone over the 2012-13 period, but turned it around last year. We can probably expect a league average HR/FB ratio next year. His ground ball rate is above average at 48 percent. So far, it’s all good news.

He shows substantial splits – righties posted a .246 wOBA (.304 BABIP) compared to a .304 wOBA from lefties (.327 BABIP). The difference can be attributed to his sinker. Check out his pitch usage.

Got that? He throws a lot of sinkers, especially early count sinkers. Now here’s the rub – left-handed hitters batted .335 with a .541 slugging percentage and 5.5 percent swinging strike rate against the pitch. The Klubot has a flaw, but it’s a really easy one to fix. He probably just needs to replace some sinkers with cutters against opposite-handed hitters.

It’s clear why Kluber likes the sinker. Against right-handed hitters, he was able to notch a lot of quick outs. Fellow righties hit .292 against the sinker, which isn’t fantastic but also came with a 61 percent ground ball rate. If the batter didn’t swing against the sinker, it set up his excellent secondary stuff. Prepare to gaze upon dominance.

I’ve highlighted the whiff rate columns to show just how filthy Kluber becomes post-sinker. I love the general strategy here. He dares hitters to try to loft the sinker early in the count, knowing they’re in trouble if they fail. His command and control further punish patient hitters.

Steamer doesn’t see a repeat, projecting 13 wins, 197 strikeouts, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. That’s a $13 pitcher. However, I think Kluber could continue to grow in 2015. As we discovered, there is the potential for an adjustment against left-handed hitters, and they comprised over half of batters faced (510 LHH against 441 RHH). While some regression can be expected in his strikeout and home run rates, I doubt it will be enough to support an ERA over 3.00.

My hope for draft day is to find owners hesitant to include Kluber in the second tier of fantasy aces (i.e. everyone after Clayton Kershaw). He has just the one breakout season to his name, and there is the matter of seeing him bounce back from a career high 235.2 inning workload. Despite my general avoidance of pricey pitchers, I’ll be owning a lot of shares of Kluber if his price tag settles in around $22. I love when an elite player shows signs of further improvement.