Ottoneu Rebuild Strategy

Any keeper league that allows offseason trading will have its share of rebuilding teams. The guy who drafted Chris Davis, Joey Votto, and Cliff Lee will need time to recover from those dreadful picks. If the standard of excellence is high enough in your league, a perfectly adequate roster might still qualify for a touch of rebuilding.

In ottoneu, the 40 man roster, $400 budget, and offseason trading allow owners to pursue a wide range of rebuilding tactics. The instinct when rebuilding is to go young, however there is such a thing as too young. Some owners go all out on prospects. Two of the owners in FanGraphs Staff Two combine to own about 70 percent of the top 50 prospects. They can barely field a team, but they should have plenty of future talent.

The problem for these owners is that they punted 2014 and they’re both poised to punt 2015. When you get into the business of developing minor leaguers, you can get trapped in a perpetual rebuilding mode. To escape, you have to discover Mike Trout, Jose Fernandez, and Paul Goldschmidt all around the same time.

Meanwhile, prospects aren’t cheap in ottoneu. Kris Bryant costs over $20 in our league. He basically has to enter the league hitting like Hunter Pence to justify his future expense. Never mind the sunk costs which may never be recovered.

If it seems I’m not thrilled about a prospect oriented rebuild, you’d be right. Last offseason, I acquired and rebuilt the worst roster in our league. My targets were not prospects – I actually traded a few away. I targeted what I call major league prospects – guys like Corey Kluber, Christian Yelich, and Danny Salazar. Also on my acquisition list were a couple stars – Miguel Cabrera and David Wright. I did snag some prospects like Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Marcus Stroman, but I generally flipped them to other owners.

The strategy of pursuing major league prospects has a couple benefits over the classic rebuild technique. My team was competitive last season because my “prospects” played in the majors. I ultimately finished fifth, and I have a strong unit heading into 2015. Having something to play for makes fantasy baseball a whole lot more fun. Guys who have already shown something in the majors also come with a lower bust rate. Sure, my fliers on Salazar and Josmil Pinto didn’t pay off, but Kluber and Yelich were great (and Salazar was dealt early for a cheap Hisashi Iwakuma).

Owners on the rebuild trail have to fight another instinct – the desire to build the cheapest possible payroll. If you’re the Astros of your ottoneu league, you have left value on the table. Even if you’re not buying my “avoid minor league prospects” thesis, you should supplement your cheap assets with expensive stars.

Every league has an owner swimming in high priced studs. That owner’s spreadsheet probably tells him to cut most of them. However, draft room inflation could mean that those stars are relative values at their current expensive price. You can usually acquire this talent with a minimal player investment. Then it’s a waiting game. Let their value peak and then sell them with a bundle of cash after the draft. By offsetting their price, you should multiply the return.

Here are a couple examples. When I originally acquired Cabrera ($59), I dealt Pederson ($2), Nolan Arenado ($11), and Carl Crawford ($9). Not only did I get Cabrera, I also received $8 Greg Holland and $3 Seth Smith. On July 9, I traded Cabrera, Smith ($1), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($5) for $23 Edwin Encarnacion and $4 Evan Gattis. I may eventually kick myself for trading Pederson and Arenado, but my team added three great building blocks in Encarnacion, Holland, and Gattis.

In the FanGraphs league, Scott Spratt inherited Bradey Woodrum’s last place club. It’s early yet, but his rebuilding process has netted him Clayton Kershaw ($61) and Cabrera ($61). He’s given up Stroman ($6), Pinto ($5), Oswaldo Arcia ($6), and Drew Smyly ($6). He could regret parting with cost effective players like Stroman and Arcia, but the return on a healthy Kershaw and Cabrera will help him to forget. Some of the best keepers in our league like a $5 George Springer could be in play.

Friends, the moral of today’s post is that rebuilding owners should do two things. First, target major league prospects, and downplay minor league prospects. Second, ensure your club possesses elite, salable talent. There is no better time than now to acquire some expensive studs.