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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1030 – Starting Pitcher Preview

3/22/22

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PATREON

STARTING PITCHER PREVIEW

QUESTIONS FOR TOP TIER GUYS:

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Paul Sporer’s 2022 Shortstop Rankings with Comments

Sam Greene via Imagn Content Services, LLC

The difference being cited is from my first run of rankings. These are for standard league setups that include SS, MI, and UT with 20-game eligibility. While I play mostly in 15-team mixers, these wouldn’t change much in 12- or 10-teamers. In the latter formats, I’d elevate appealing injury concerns (short-term more so, but yes, also Tatis*) and small sample guys because the replacement level is much higher. The double- and triple-eligible guys also take a little hit in the shallower formats for that same reason.

*My Tatis ranking would probably be closer to 20 in leagues with multiple IL spots, but the NFBC doesn’t have any and that’s the focus of my rankings hence the colossal drop.

2022 SS Rankings with Comments
RK SHORTSTOP TM POS LAST RK DIFF. NOTE
1 Trea Turner LAD 2B/SS 1 0 Feels like a strong bet to set a new high in runs scored (107, 2021)
2 Bo Bichette TOR SS 2 0 Showed it all in 2021 and it’s hard to find any real flaws that set him up for major regression
3 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS 5 2 3rd in AVG, 6th in HR, 5th in R, 2nd in RBI, & 24th in SB among SS since 2018
4 Marcus Semien TEX 2B/SS 6 2 Had 18 pt OPS adv. at home w/OAK at a park that plays similar to TEX
5 Francisco Lindor NYM SS 4 -1 Even if the pwr doesn’t fully return, he’s not a .230 hitter; I see a rebound in ’22
6 Tim Anderson CWS SS 11 5 Double-double stud w/premium AVG & tons of R; only needed 123 G to get there in ’19 & ’21
7 Trevor Story BOS SS 8 1 Yes the .972 home OPS will come down out of Coors, but the .752 road OPS will rise, too
8 Javier Báez DET 2B/SS 9 1 Plate skills make him super volatile, but pwr & spd remain enticing
9 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B/SS 12 3 Modest 65% SB% says be careful betting on another 11; solid bet for .260/25
10 Wander Franco TBR SS 10 0 I don’t see a major HR or SB output just yet and think ’23 could be the uber-breakout
11 Willy Adames MIL SS 14 3 I’m buying the anti-Trop breakout: .616/.864 home/road OPS split w/TB
12 Bobby Witt Jr. KCR SS 29 17 New PPI rule could lead to Opening Day bid so I jumped him given his insane skills
13 Corey Seager TEX SS 13 0 Health has come to the fore as an issue w/>100 G once in last 3 full seasons
14 Chris Taylor LAD 2B/SS/OF 18 4 Played 11+ G at 5 pos. as today’s Zobrist; K% could bring AVG into .240s
15 Jake Cronenworth SDP 1B/2B/SS 16 1 No single stat is excellent, but finished 14-14-16 at his elig. positions last yr
16 Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 2B/SS 15 -1 .681 OPS, 14 HR/SB from May on; has upside, but plate skills breed volatility
17 Dansby Swanson ATL SS 19 2 Has continued to build up his pwr, ISOs since 2017: .092, .157, .172, .190, and .201
18 Carlos Correa MIN SS 7 -11 Surprise sign in MIN and that lineup is looking stout after a flurry of moves
19 Luis Urías MIL 2B/3B/SS 21 2 Under the hood backs pwr surge as LA surge drove much better contact results; no change off quad inj. yet
20 Gleyber Torres NYY SS 17 -3 Is his PT at risk w/IKF and DJLM at SS/2B? Had a .651 OPS vR in ’21
21 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B/SS 20 -1 Former #3 overall hit well in first big MLB sample, incl. an .873 OPS & 12 HR on the road
22 Amed Rosario CLE SS 28 6 Big 2H saw him hit .309/.339/.457 w/6 HR & 5 SB; ready for a leap?
23 Brandon Crawford SFG SS 25 2 Pwr surge started in ’20 (.209 ISO), but don’t bet on another 11 SB
24 Eugenio Suárez SEA 3B/SS 27 3 Move to SEA doesn’t help, but it shouldn’t crush him as his pwr plays everywhere
25 Oneil Cruz PIT SS 30 5 Only 8 G above AA & Steamer proj. drove hype through the roof; talent is immense, though
26 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 SDP 2B/3B/SS 33 7 Buying back in despite modest debut and now has a clear path to the starting SS role
27 Jonathan Villar CHC 3B/SS 32 5 Versatility keeps PT coming, avg of 14 HR/27 SB per 500 PA since ’18; CHC might have 600 PA for him
28 Andrés Giménez CLE 2B/SS 34 6 Believers see 3 HR/7 SB upon return from AAA (125 PA) and that he’s just 23 y/o; don’t give up
29 Josh Rojas ARI 2B/SS/OF 35 6 Intriguing bat w/pop, spd, & positional flexibility, but hasn’t hit vR in MLB: .684 OPS in 564 PA
30 Gavin Lux LAD 2B/SS 24 -6 No longer has an obvious avenue to a full-time role after the Freeman signing
31 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP SS/OF 3 -28 I understand it could be a strong half season when he returns, but it’s a HUGE question mark
32 Miguel Rojas MIA SS 39 7 Not just empty AVG w/8 HR & 10 SB per 500 PA since 2018 w/a .270 AVG
33 Gio Urshela MIN 3B/SS 22 -11 Hammy inj. + COVID ate up early-2H (37 PA Jul 16-Aug 31), clear PT path now: 500 PA incoming?
34 Didi Gregorius PHI SS 36 2 Needed multiple bone spurs removed that hampered him in ’21, could be a bounceback candidate
35 José Iglesias COL SS 51 16 Could get 500 PA w/COL and drop a .290 AVG w/8 HR & SB; prob best as a homestand fill-in
36 Jeremy Peña HOU SS #N/A #N/A Has glove to hold role & all FA SS are now signed; could be a sneaky double-double
37 J.P. Crawford SEA SS 31 -6 Pwr or Spd needs to be a major fantasy contributor, otherwise it’s a Runs/AVG volume play
38 Cole Tucker PIT SS 54 16 Hasn’t been good in 406 PA over 3 seasons (60 wRC+), but has 28 SB/500 PA in MiLB
39 Jose Barrero CIN SS 26 -13 Hamate inj. hits a fave sleeper of mine; delays season by at least 1 mo.; remember him for waivers
40 Joey Wendle MIA 3B/SS 37 -3 If FT role is there, sneaky solid in deep lgs w/.274 AVG, 8 HR, 13 SB per 500 PA since ’18
41 Ramón Urías BAL 2B/SS 38 -3 Could there be a pwr surge coming like baby bro Luis had last yr? I could see 15-17 HR
42 Isiah Kiner-Falefa NYY SS 41 -1 Accumulator went 8 HR/20 SB/.271 AVG last yr in 677 PA, but just an 85 wRC+… meh
43 Nicky Lopez KCR SS 23 -20 Profile maxed in ’21 (.300 AVG, 22 SB) and I just don’t like powerless profiles like this
44 Paul DeJong STL SS 45 1 Pwr was still there (19 HR, .194 ISO), but .216 BABIP tanked his AVG (.197); unlikely to play daily
45 Edmundo Sosa STL 2B/SS 43 -2 Held his own in 326 PA (104 wRC+) & could get a larger share of PT if DeJong doesn’t rebound
46 Kyle Farmer CIN SS 47 1 Barrero inj. clears path, but profile is underwhelming (breakout was a 91 wRC+)
47 Alcides Escobar WAS SS #N/A #N/A He might actually bat high in the order which would give him some Runs appeal if AVG holds
48 Luis Rengifo LAA SS 49 1 Has 16 HR, 22 SB, .296 AVG in 569 PA at AAA, could be interesting if a role opened up
49 Tyler Wade LAA 3B/SS/OF 55 6 Excelled in limited role w/17 SB in just 145 PA incl. 7 as a substitute; PT could be sporadic in LA
50 David Fletcher LAA 2B/SS 42 -8 Hit .255 in first 48 gms, .340 in next 66, but closed w/a .150 in 44 gms; only dual elig.,too
51 Bryson Stott PHI SS 40 -11 Breaking camp is unlikely (41 AAA PA), but could replace Didi in summer if he falters again
52 Taylor Walls TBR SS 46 -6 Unheralded prospect, but has a great glove, solid hit tool, and some spd that would play if PT opens
53 Elvis Andrus OAK SS 52 -1 OAK exodus clears path for another 500+ PA, but do we want ’em? Bat is outright punchless (.076 ISO)
54 Royce Lewis MIN SS #N/A #N/A Correa move doesn’t crush path as he got 3B/OF reps in AFL; still just 23 years old
55 Kevin Newman PIT SS 48 -7 Another potential 500 PA bat you want nothing to do with given the output
56 Thairo Estrada SFG SS 44 -12 Just not sure where PT materializes in Platoonsville; waiver filler if he does find some time
57 Jeter Downs BOS SS #N/A #N/A 14 HR/18 SB AAA debut came w/62 wRC+ & now Story addition curbs any hurry BOS might’ve had
58 Nick Ahmed ARI SS 53 -5 Lost all of the punch he’d been showing w/2% Barrel & 5% HR/FB rates robbing his output
59 Geraldo Perdomo ARI SS #N/A #N/A Prospect to watch, but will almost certainly start in AAA w/Ahmed starting
60 Willi Castro DET 2B/SS 50 -10 Could find success in utility role, but ’20 success was built on .448 BABIP

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1029 – Outfield Preview

3/20/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

OUTFIELD PREVIEW

QUESTIONS FOR TOP TIER GUYS:

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1028 – Another Transaction Bonanza

3/18/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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March Madness MLB Edition #4: Freeman, Bryant, Greinke, and Pederson

Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks.

Covered in this article: Freeman, Bryant, Greinke, Pederson

Previous editions: March 14th Pt. 1 | March 14th Pt. 2 | March 16th Pt. 3 |

Freddie Freeman to LAD

The rich get richer on both ends here. The Dodgers get a superstar 1B to install into their studly lineup and Freeman goes from a good lineup to a great one. The park move is a slight dip overall, going from 103 to 99, but Dodger Stadium does inflate lefty homers with a 124 Park Factor (101 in Atlanta). Freeman somehow only has two 100+ RBI seasons in his career, but #3 could be on the horizon with those loaded squad, though I was surprised to learn that the Dodgers have just one 100+ RBI season in the last five full seasons (Cody Bellinger, 2019).

Bottom line: Superstar player joins superstar team to continue superstar career, perhaps even a higher superstar level (a 40-HR season incoming?).

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March Madness MLB Edition #3: Chapman, Schwarber, Suzuki, Fraley, and More…

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I’ll be covering the impact of the most fantasy-relevant moves in the lead up to Opening Day.

Covered in this article: Chapman, Schwarber, Suzuki, Rizzo, Rosario, Fraley, Velasquez

Previous editions: March 14th Pt. 1 | March 14th Pt. 2 |

Matt Chapman traded to TOR

Chapman played all of 2021, but it is hard to believe he was fully healthy given the output. His 101 wRC+ was the lowest of his career as his strikeout surged from 2020 carried over with a 33% rate. We saw it jump to 36% in 2020, but with it being just 37 games, there was some hope that he would get back toward his 24% rate from 2017-19. Without confirmation from Chapman, this is pure speculation, but I wonder if the hip was in a state where it didn’t impact his defense (17 Outs Above Average ranked 4th in MLB) but kept him from getting to high heat.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1027 – 2022 Third Base Preview Pt. 2

3/15/22

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

THIRD BASE PREVIEW PT. 2

The Once Great Rebound Candidates (1:04:10)

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March Madness MLB Edition #2: Cruz, Olson, Winker, Suárez

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I will posting these regularly until the season starts.

Covered in this article: Cruz, Olson, Winker, Suárez, Williamson, and Dunn

Previous editions: March 14th Pt. 1 |

Nelson Cruz to WAS

Was his time with the Rays a BABIP-fueled blip (96 wRC+, .252 BABIP) or the start of legitimate decline? He also struck out in 27% of his 238 PA after being traded over. Maybe he hated the Trop, too, because that’s where he really struggled, posting just a .603 OPS in 101 PA. Even a Cruz who is more his 2021 line (122 wRC+) than the guy who put up a 164 in 735 PA from 2019-20 is totally fine. The top half of that Nationals lineup is coming together with Lane Thomas, César Hernández, Juan Soto, Cruz, and Josh Bell giving them a strong top five while Keibert Ruiz could give it a bit more length in the 6-spot. His bat plays everywhere, and Nationals Park is a bit of an unheralded offensive gem, giving righties a 103 Park Factor (5th in MLB) over the last three seasons. At age-41, it is worth planning for fewer plate appearances, but anywhere north of 450 should be enough to be an impact bat.

Bottom line: Premium slugger aging gracefully at age-41 and all of sudden this Washington lineup isn’t so bad, either.

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March Madness MLB Edition: Rodón, Kershaw, Garver, Donaldson, etc…

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. Even as I was writing this, several other moves happened including the big Matt Olson deal or Nelson Cruz inking with Washington. Don’t worry, I’ll have another piece out covering that move and others soon! But first, let’s catch up with the weekend moves.

Covered in this article: Rodón, Kershaw, Bassitt, S.Gray, Garver, IKF, Donaldson, G.Sánchez, Urshela, Colomé, Kikuchi, Simmons

Carlos Rodón to SFG

Rodón is coming off a breakout season as he stayed healthy and posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 132.7 IP.  Some saw the White Sox not giving him a qualifying offer ($18.4 mil) as an indication of his health – or lack thereof – but the Giants are giving him $44 million dollars over the next two seasons which likely assuages some of those health-related fears. It doesn’t mean he will automatically stay healthy but seeing a team like the Giants that has done well with reclamation projects ponying up for Rodón is encouraging.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1025 – 2022 Third Base Preview Pt. 1

3/11/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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