Boxscore Bits: May 16th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from the weekend’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Justin Verlander, Kyle Wright, Joe Musgrove, Zac Gallen, Nestor Cortes, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Aaron Nola, Sean Manaea, Alek Manoah, Triston McKenzie, Max Fried, Eric Lauer, Paul Blackburn, Logan Webb (still just 1 K, though), Patrick Sandoval, Adam Wainwright, Joe Ryan, Jordan Montgomery, Jakob Junis, Bruce Zimmermann, Michael Lorenzen, Drew Rasmussen (still just 80-90 pitch guy), Dakota Hudson, Germán Márquez (business as usual in that he remains incredibly difficult to predict and very difficult to trust), and Humberto Castellanos

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Tarik Skubal had a season-high 11 Ks, netting 21 whiffs on 100 pitches in 6 scoreless innings. He has a 0.45 HR/9 and has improved his OPS vR by 158 points.
• It was essentially business as usual for Pablo López, but I wanted to give him some shine for a season-high 11 Ks. He has an MLB-best 1.05 WHIP along with an excellent 0.81 WHIP and 46 Ks in 43 IP.
• I didn’t know much of anything about Chase Silseth ahead of his MLB debut on Friday, but then he dropped six scoreless innings of 1-hit ball and I saw a nifty little co-sign from one Eno Sarris so I set my sights on him for Sunday bids only to lose by $1 to Scott Jenstad!! He hasn’t been confirmed to remain in the rotation, though it’s hard to think it’d be a 1-and-done given how well it went.
• That’s now back-to-back gems for Charlie Morton (11 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 14 K) and this one in particular looked like Vintage Morton. He had a season high 9 Ks and 15 swinging strikes in 83 pitches. A trip to MIA this week is a great way to stay hot.
• Ummm, is José Quintana good again?! Good probably overstates it, but he is looking more like the Cubs iteration which has some streamer appeal. The 4.15 SIERA is much more indicative of who he’s been than he 2.19 ERA as a .235 BABIP and 84% LOB rate have been instrumental in this success. He gets STL and at SDP in his next two, a pair of clubs that could definitely accelerate his regression toward that SIERA. Be careful.
• Zach Thompson is working off some early season ugliness with a 10.05 ERA in April and it has obscured the fact that he has reeled off 12 scoreless IP to start May across a relief appearance and back-to-back starts against Cincinnati. There is some fringe deep league appeal here, but I need to see more Ks before jumping in.
• Martín Pérez threw another gem, this time against BOS, for his 5th straight quality start. He also has 13 Ks against just 2 BB in his last 2 starts (12.3 IP). Perez and Quintana are doing their best to draw fantasy attention, but neither breakout is on sturdy ground. Perez’s skills are up a bit at 10% K-BB v. 8% in 176 IP from 2020-21, but not enough to support a 2.01 ERA. I’m not even sure I buy his 3.68 SIERA as a potential ERA for him the rest of the way. Without any substantial skill changes, I can’t see much more than a mid-4.00s ERA with a hideous WHIP (>1.30).
• First time seeing something worthwhile from Justin Steele since his season debut (5 IP/0 ER v. MIL) as he took advantage of the cushy matchup at ARI. He still walked 2 (he has 2+ BB in 5 of 7 starts) but made it 6 IP for the first time this year. He gets ARI again this week followed by a trip to CIN. I didn’t look to pick him up this weekend, however he remains on my radar in case his swing-and-miss stuff starts showing up consistently.
• Ranger Suárez now has back-to-back gems with the latest at LAD getting him picked back up in the Rotowire Online Championships where he was available (5 of 199 12-tm leagues). He is rostered in 66% of Y! and ESPN leagues, a number that will soar if he continues to deal with LAD coming to Philly this week and then a trip to ATL lineup up next week.
• Rich Hill jumped to a season-high 94 pitches (6 IP a season-high, too) as he was dealing before a couple runs into the 7th sullied the line a bit. He has now gone 5+ in the last two outings which we need if he’s not going to be given an opener. Managing Hill is a fantasy headache, but it always pays off with a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP since 2014 and last year’s 3.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are the high water marks during that time.
• It is too perfect that Pittsburgh won a game where they were no-hit while Cincinnati lost one with Hunter Greene & Co. throwing a no-hitter! Just so emblematic of where the two orgs are right now. The 118 pitches Greene threw are drawing a lot of attention given his injury history and I get it, but he threw 100 last time out and threw over 20 pitches just twice in the outing (1st, 4th inn.). My only real quibble is keeping him in after the first walk in the 8th. It seemed pretty clear that he was done, though I wonder if they were hoping he could get a GIDP and then maybe they bring him back for 9th?! Don’t be surprised if they skip his next start just to give their young stud a breather. They have 5 games this week so it won’t be too hard to skip Greene if they choose to do so.
• Eduardo Rodriguez scattered 9 base runners across 6.7 IP and only struck out 3 but kept the O’s off the board. A couple outings have gone sideways – due in part to the defense – but for the most part he has been his usual self, except the 21% K rate (24% career). I’m still starting him everywhere.
• Daniel Lynch pitched quite well in Coors. He sprinkled 4 BB across his 5.3 IP and notched just 4 punchouts, but 3 H and 0 ER made it a wonderful outing. That said, I’m not sure how many starting lineups got the goodness as he was an easy sit at COL. He is putting together a nice foundation to build upon, though admittedly still has a ways to go. He gets a home-and-home with MIN in his next two starts. That’s startable in 15s, fringe in 12s (though I’d try to hold if I wasn’t going to use him for either or both), and a standard streamer in 10s.
• A .242 BABIP and 0.76 HR/9 are doing a lot of work for Zach Davies and his 3.57 ERA as he has just a 9% K-BB and 10% SwStr through 35.3 IP. He has been excellent in May, allowing just 3 ER in 17 IP (1.59 ERA), pushing his K-BB rate to 14%. Davies is a deep league streamer and with a trip to LAD this week, it’s an easy pass. He is slated for KC after that, but it’s in a 2-step that would end with LAD at home. I haven’t really seen enough to ever trot him out against the Dodgers no matter how good the first start of a 2-step is given where his skills reside.
• Nick Pivetta was solid for 7 IP at TEX, but I’m not kicking that damn football, Lucy!

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• George Kirby – The modest outing at NYM didn’t slow bids in the NFBC. He was available in 46 of 47 and went for an average of $340 in the Main Event, ranging from $557 to $236. He heads to BOS this week so a major test off rip for those who picked him up!
• Robbie Ray – No one is excited about 5 ER in 6 IP from him, but the 9 Ks and 26% SwStr are encouraging. He now has back-to-back big K and SwStr games. His 25% K rate is still the lowest since 2015, but he’s headed in the right direction.
• Michael Kopech – Kopech battled after a brutal 41-pitch second inning during which all the damage was done (4 BB, 1 H, 3 ER) and wound up finishing 6 IP. However, his low velo stood out and overshadowed the gutty performance. He was living at an average of 96 mph before dipping to 93.8 mph against the Yankees, including a good number of 91-92 mph heaters over the last few innings of the start. Hopefully this is just a blip for Kopech and not another injury.
• Luis Castillo – You want more at PIT but considering that it’s just his second start of the season, I’m not too worried by the modest outing.
• Dane Dunning – He was dealing through five before a 4-run sixth tanked the outing. No shame in getting hit by BOS as their offense starts to creep back up (9th in wOBA vR in May).
• Jeffrey Springs – Springs was a significant pickup in the Main Event this weekend, going in 35 of 47 and upping his roster rate to 87%. He threw a season-high 76 pitches and seems headed toward the Drew Rasmussen model of five-and-dive in the 80-90 pitch range. In his five extended outings (3 starts, 2 follows), he has a 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 18% K-BB rate in 16.7 IP. He is scheduled for a trip to BAL this week.
• Jordan Hicks – Speaking of getting stretched out for 5 IP, Hicks reached the mark for the first time this year with a season-high 77 pitches against SFG. I understand the interest if he can consistently go 5 IP, but I can’t get past the 14% BB and 9% SwStr rates that really limit his upside right now.
• Tyler Wells – A nice 2-step (KCR, at DET) made him a FAAB target last weekend and his 3.60 ERA/1.30 WHIP with 1 W in 10 IP paid off, but he still had just 5 Ks as his 16% K rate continues to lag well behind his 11% SwStr. He remains a work in progress and with TBR and at NYY slated as his next two starts, I’m OK cutting him. If you have the spot to keep him as a team streamer, feel free, but you needn’t prioritize keeping him.
• Michael Grove – A hideous 35-pitch second inning saw Grove allow 4 unearned runs on 4 H and 2 BB. It limited how long Grove could go with half of his total pitches coming in that inning. This might’ve just been a spot start, but Grove is a name to remember and if does land an extended opportunity at some point, he is worth rostering.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Walker Buehler and Julio Urías – Both were blasted by Philly and part of why LAD dropped three of four against them. The shellackings took their ERAs to 2.81 and 3.00, respectively, illustrating just how well they had been doing prior to the rough outing. There has been some concern regarding Urías and his 19% K rate coming into this game. He has a season high of 6 Ks back on April 22nd and just 4 in each of his last 3 outings. I’m not worried enough to sit him, but I’m keeping a close eye on him right now.
• Carlos Rodón – Is this what it’s like to watch your dad get beaten up? His Sunday Night dud was a tough watch as the Cards just peppered the ball around the yard in 3 of the 4 innings he pitched in. Hopefully it’s just a one-off bad outing and not any sort of injury precursor.
• Yu Darvish – A rough 6th inning (3 H, 3 ER) tanked this outing. His Ks are running light the last three outing with 12 in 18.7 IP, but the 4.62 season ERA is being heavily influenced by that horrendous 1.7 IP/9 ER mega-dud from April 12th as he has a 2.65 ERA in his other 6 starts.
• Cristian Javier – When someone is running an insane ERA, I always wonder “will the regression be incremental, or one fell swoop?” Wellllll, it was one fell swoop for Javier with 7 ER in 3.7 IP, but now he’s essentially where he “belongs”. His 3.20 ERA is almost dead on with his matching 3.18 SIERA and FIP. I’m still starting him as long as he remains in the rotation.
• Kyle Gibson – While he has been great in his first six starts (2.94 ERA/1.07 WHIP), there was still no reason to risk this outing at LAD and hopefully you sat the team streamer. The schedule doesn’t ease up with SD and at ATL on tap.
• Carlos Carrasco – Rough start sunk by a 30-pitch 4th inning gave Carrasco his second dud of the year. He has allowed 12 of his 17 ER in two starts. A trip to COL on the docket this week makes him an easy sit.
• Glenn Otto – I’m a big fan of Otto’s, but he is a clear streamer right now and given that, he has been a tough guy to use with HOU, at NYY, and BOS since his season opener at OAK drew some attention. I haven’t used him since that debut and he gets at HOU and at LAA next, making him cuttable in virtually all mixed formats. AL-Only leaguers should still look to bench him, but I don’t want to outright cut him in formats where wires are that shallow.
• Josiah Gray – He remains a risky bet until he curbs the HRs in a tangible way as he has now allowed 5 HR in his last two outings after 3 in his first five.
• Vince Velasquez – This is the VV experience in a nutshell: 5, 0, 1, 7 ER in his last four. Feeling lucky?

COMBO MEALS

Shoutout to ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast for coming up with the “combo meal” term when guys get a HR and SB in the same game. Here are the weekend (Fri-Sun) combo meals:

• Sam Hilliard – Friday
• Kolten Wong (2 SB!) – Sunday
• Chas McCormick – Sunday

MULTI-HR/MULTI-SB

Guys with 2+ HR or SB over the weekend (Fri-Sun):

2+ HR

• Yuli Gurriel
• Bryce Harper
• Kole Calhoun
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Kolten Wong
• Miguel Cabrera
• Mookie Betts
• Trey Mancini
• Bobby Witt Jr.
• Byron Buxton
• Joey Gallo
• Jorge Soler
• Dansby Swanson
• Sam Hilliard
• Jose Altuve
• Kyle Schwarber
• Mike Moustakas
• Gio Urshela
• Adolis Garcia
• Shohei Ohtani
• Jesus Aguilar

2+ SB

• Kolten Wong
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa
• Trevor Story
• Eli White

PLAYING TIME MONDAY

Guys getting in the lineup more often lately.

• Vidal Bruján has started 4 of 5 since his recall, 2 vL and 2 vR. He is just 2-for-14 in that time, but has 2 2B, 2 R, and an SB. He’s making a ton of contacts with a .125 BABIP really holding his line back. He has 3 starts at 2B, splitting between there and RF so it’s still going to take time to reach the 10-game in-season eligibility.
• Juan Yepez is an everyday player! He has batted 4th for six straight games and his fast start certainly isn’t hurting: .366/.435/.585, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 7 R, 17% K, 9% BB in 46 PA.
• LaMonte Wade Jr. had 6 straight starts (all at leadoff) with all righties on the docket, but they have 3 lefties in 6 games this week which cuts his value. In the NFBC, you can easily start him for the series in Coors Mon-Wed (2 R/1 L) and then make your decision for the weekend against San Diego (2 L/1 R).
• Jed Lowrie has started 4 of 5 (sat 1 of the doubleheader games), batting 2nd or 3rd, but he’s just not striking the ball all that well right now. The plate skills are strong (16% K, 11% BB), there is just no power to speak of: EV down 7 to 84 mph, Max EV down 5 to 104.8 mph, and Hard Hit rate down 18 to 28%.
• Evan Longoria is back and in the middle of the lineup, even against righties. He is one of the few guys who doesn’t get platooned. Longoria quietly raked last year (123 wRC+) so I’m open to taking a shot on him in 15s for sure and even some 12s where there is a clear need.
• Rafael Ortega is back and playing every day against righties and batting atop the order. He is hitting .286/.333/.524 with 1 HR & 2 SB (in 3 tries) since returning.
• Sam Hilliard has started of 9 of 10, including 2 of 3 v. lefties. It hasn’t really unlocked him (.545 OPS), but a disastrous .053 BABIP is completely suppressing him. Two of his three hits are homers, and he has a palatable 24% K rate during this run. COL has 2 lefties on the docket this week and I’m interested to see if he starts against either of them.

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Monday if you’re interested click here!

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Monday, May 16th:

• Alex Faedo gets his toughest opponent yet in TB while Corey Kluber looks to rebound from the disaster at LAA.
• How will Kyle Bradish follow up his 11 K outing at STL? He draws NYY at home tonight.
• Jake Odorizzi will garner some attention if he stays hot in BOS after ripping through 3 easy opponents (at TEX, SEA, DET).
• Tough draw for Garrett Whitlock to rebound after a 4-BB dud at ATL.
• One disastrous relief inning is the only damage against Dillon Peters, otherwise he has 19.7 scoreless IP (7 of which are 2+ IP outings). I’m not picking him up anywhere yet, but I’m keeping an eye on him.
• Can Tony Gonsolin keep his BB in check?
• Johnny Cueto returns to the majors! He’s always been a favorite of mine so I’ll be keeping an eye on his outing at KC.