Boxscore Bits: May 19th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Wednesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Shohei Ohtani, Walker Buehler, Kevin Gausman, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, Drew Rasmussen, Sonny Gray, Marco Gonzales

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Nick Pivetta – Congrats to the 55% of teams in the Main Event that started Pivetta! He was riding a 2.45 ERA/1.00 WHIP/21% K-BB over his last 4 starts (22 IP), but that wasn’t enough to give me confidence in him against HOU. He gets a 2-step next week at CWS and v. BAL. I’m down to ride this hot streak, though I’d still be nervous starting him.
• Zack Wheeler – Wheeler is fully in his bag now with a 1.04 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 25% K-BB rate in his last 4.
• Logan Webb – If you took the cautious route and benched him here, don’t get too hung up on the strong outing. It’s a bummer to miss 7 IP/3 ER/6 Ks, but the point is your dodging a potential 10 ER meltdown. The range of outcomes for such a good pitcher obviously includes a strong outing. The benching is to avoid the blow up. Making up for 10 ER in 2 IP is a lot harder than the help that a 7 IP/3 ER gem gives you. I also wouldn’t let this strong outing convince me to start him there next time.
• Josiah Gray – When he limits walks, the homers hurt less, and he only allowed 1 in this outing. This is exactly where you feel comfortable starting Gray and it paid off handsomely.
• Dane Dunning – I was definitely cautious starting Dunning here, but he was great against LAA. He has been cooking in his last 5 with a 3.19 ERA/0.94 WHIP/17% K-BB in 31 IP. He gets the Angels again next week, this time on the road along with a start at OAK. I’d start him for the 2-step.
• Jordan Lyles – Lyles has been a deep league streamer this year and did a great job against NYY. However, the 1.39 WHIP and AL-high 50 hits allowed suggest caution. I’m not sure where I’d feel comfortable starting Lyles, but I can definitely say it’s not next week at NYY and at BOS.
• Kyle Freeland – He was awesome as he is several times a year in Coors, but good look timing those.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Zack Greinke – I continue to marvel at Greinke getting it done and love watching him do his thing with a 10% K rate and 6% SwStr rate in 44 IP. It’s hard not to think all of this hinges on the 0.41 HR/9 and 3% HR/FB rate, though. So I think he goes as the HR rate goes.
• Jordan Hicks – There are some positives to take from this outing as he continued to push his season pitch high to 82 and he also settled after a 31-pitch first inning to deliver three more strong ones after that. I’m still holding him as more of an upside stash than anything else as I’m not sure I’m ready to start him v. TOR next week.

Injury-Shortened

• Max Scherzer – Everyone waited anxiously after Scherzer took himself and while oblique injuries aren’t great, there was still some relief that it wasn’t arm-related. He will be out 6-8 weeks so you should be looking for a longer term solution on the wire if available.
• Eduardo Rodriguez – A left oblique injury sank E-Rod’s start and put him on the IL. He was pretty much back on track before this outing, too, with a 3.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through his first seven starts. The injury is unfortunate, but I can’t really see any reasonable person complaining about his production thus far.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Luis Garcia – If you were starting to see BOS as a soft spot because of their April, they’ve regressed back to the strong offense we expected them to be this spring. I don’t bring that up to suggest you should’ve sat Garcia here – I started him everywhere I have him – just using this blowup as a PSA regarding Boston’s return to scariness.
• Pablo López – It started with a 30-pitch inning and never got on track with 23 and 29 in the 2nd and 3rd before he was taken out. He still had a 13% SwStr and while the velo was down a bit, it wasn’t anything alarming (less than 1 mph).
• Blake Snell – Rough return from the IL, but not fully unexpected. I understand if you want to give him more ramp up and bench him, buuuttt it is a 2-step next week with MIL and PIT at home so I’m starting him.
• Drew Smyly – Smyly has now allowed 7 ER in 9.3 IP against PIT. As a pure streamer, these are the spots he is a supposed to pay off, so it’s tough to give away Pirates starts.

MULTI-HR/MULTI-SB

Guys with 2+ HR or SB yesterday:

• Jared Walsh (7th, 8th HRs)
• Isaac Paredes (1st, 2nd HRs)

STREAMER THURSDAY

A look at some available arms to stream on the weekend.

(Ranked in order of interest for 10/12 tm roto formats)

• Bailey Ober at KC on Sunday – Deep leaguers likely won’t be able to participate here as he was likely held through his IL stint, but he’s 41% at Yahoo! and 61% at ESPN so there is availability. I’m picking him up for sure because he has 10- and 12-team appeal when healthy.
• Jakob Junis v. SD on Friday – I just don’t get why he remains at 7% on Y! & ESPN, yet here we are! He now has four solid starts on the books this year and assumed his role back in the rotation once he returned from injury so I’m not sure the hang up with people rostering him. He’s not a must-start in shallower formats, but he shouldn’t be available essentially everywhere!
• Alex Faedo at CLE on Saturday – After a 1 K debut, he has 11 in his last 2 starts (10.7 IP) giving him some real streamer appeal. With the injuries sustained in Detroit, he is comfortably part of this rotation, too.
• Daniel Lynch v. MIN on Friday – I’m surprised he is still sub-10% at Yahoo! and ESPN given how good he has been since the 6 ER season debut (5 total ER in his subsequent 5 starts). MIN is a tough matchup, but sometimes you’re betting on the skill over the matchup. He has held strong against several quality opponents during this run: MIN, at CWS, NYY, and at COL (at BAL was the other and hilariously the worst of the bunch).
• Chase Silseth v. OAK on Friday – Silseth’s scintillating debut featured a solid 3-pitch mix with some decent swing-and-miss and good velocity. Though I will be keyed in on that velo as it did drop as the start wore on, eventually landing more in the 94-96 mph range (23 fastballs) as opposed to the early 97+ flashes (6 such pitches). I’m eager to see his follow-up to last week.
• Jeffrey Springs at BAL on Saturday – Springs has been stretching out and reached a season-high 76 pitches last time out. He got hit up a bit at LAA, but he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 14.7 IP across his four stretch out starts (well, 1 was a 3.3 IP relief appearance). Everyone Springs and above is being considered as a hold beyond the spot start if they pitch well enough.
• Tyler Wells v. TB on Friday – We still haven’t seen the Ks come, but his 11% SwStr isn’t bad and suggests there could be some Ks on the horizon.
• Aaron Civale v. DET on Friday – He has career high 9.9 K/9, but his 22% K rate only matches his previous career high set in 2020 because he has been allowing so many base runners (12.8 H/9) leading to the most earned runs in baseball. The play here is the belief that he will regress toward that 3.99 SIERA and start here with DET as they don’t seem like the best offense equipped to take advantage of his .382 BABIP and 49% LOB rate as 29th team in wRC+ against righties.
• Brad Keller v. MIN on Saturday – This is a standard Keller heater as I’m not seeing any skills changes fueling the 2.89 ERA/1.01 WHIP so be forewarned that the music will stop some point for a bad start or two. Usually Keller’s regression comes in the form of a blowup start (7 starts of 5+ ER last year).
• Justin Steele v. ARI on Saturday – Steele enjoyed an excellent 10 K outing at ARI last week and gets another at ‘em this weekend. Their 25% K rate is 6th highest against lefties while their 78 wRC+ is 28th.
• Ryan Yarbrough at BAL as Follower on Friday – This is a very niche recommendation and it requires them to actually do the Opener/Follower: I like him in H2H points leagues with start limits. His last 2 starts have been fine enough (1 ER in 8.7 IP), but I’m not as interested in him as a regular ol’ starter.
• Hunter Greene at TOR on Saturday – I’m only including him to say I’m not starting him and curb potential questions about him! The matchup isn’t great, but I just don’t want anything to do with such a young arm after the lengthy no-hit bid at PIT.
• Mitch White note – I’m using this to just mention keeping an eye on White. Rotowire has him penciled in for Saturday, which is unlikely to happen, but it reminded me to bring him up since they are stretching him out and have some notions on possibly starting him eventually given their lack of depth. Here is a tweet from Fabian Ardaya acknowledging where White, David Price, and Andrew Heaney are as they stretch out.

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Friday if you’re interested: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/126992612

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Thursday, May 19th:

• George Kirby gets another tough matchup in BOS!
• Zac Gallen has to be damn near perfect not to raise his 1.05 ERA
• I’m always keeping tabs on Glenn Otto, but I did end up cutting him in 15s because he got the Kikuchi schedule treatment with HOU, at NYY, v. BOS, and now v. HOU again