Pitchers and catchers have reported which means my chats are back! (Actually planned to come back last week, but I was still under the weather)
Thanks for coming out, the transcript is now available!
1:03
Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Baseball is baaaaaack!!!!
1:03
Mochi: Glad you’re not sick anymore, thought you quit doing chats but also remembered you’re a generational yapper and you’d never quit these things.
Should I be concerned with all the projection systems being much lower on Lux this year than I am? Is it just a case of them not being prone to personal bias/excitement? I feel like we should have gotten a nice boost on his numbers with GABP being involved.
1:04
Paul Sporer: Thank you, I’d never quit chats, I love ’em!! I just take some time from them in the winter before diving back in. As for Lux, yeah I think it’s just that doesn’t have a lot of goodness to go off of right now so the projections aren’t going to pop. He really started trusting his knee late last season and we saw improvements. I think a fully healthy Lux can be a great piece for Cincy, I’m fully in to re-buy this year after last yr’s disappointment
1:05
K2: Sean Manaea – what are you thinking for him over these next couple of years? Seems like maybe he benefitted from a low BABIP last year that shouldn’t be counted on? Or should it?
1:08
Paul Sporer: Yeah he was very much in a groove last yr w/the new slingy delivery and I hope he can recapture that magic again this year. His price point in late-100s gives some buffer if he doesn’t fully repeat last yr’s numbers so I don’t mind him at ADP
1:08
Mets Fans: What do you think the CF will be for the opening day of the New York Mets, Jose Siri or Luisangel Acuña? or which other one do you think might be your favorite CF?
One day this flu will fully go away. One day. At least I’m no longer sleeping 20 of 24 hours every day and can actually do things, but my goodness this cough is something else. Anyway, let’s finish off our Gold Digging team by heading to the mound with five notable starting pitchers I’m drafting and monitoring this spring in hopes of seeing the signs that they are ready for a breakthrough. If you missed either part on hitters, you can check those out here:
Herz impressed in a 19-start debut, highlighted by a fantastic 28% K rate in 89 innings. He had some classic rookie issues with a 9% BB rate and 1.1 HR9, but the walk rate was actually the best we’ve seen from Herz at any stop in his career (15% BB in 321 MiLB IP). He has a legit 3-pitch mix, all of which can miss bats, and the young lefty was so adept at handling righties that he actually posted a better OPS against them (.651, 43 pts clear of his work vL). He will need to iron out some of his volatility to have a major breakout, but I’ll take the shot at this price point.
Pardon my delay in getting Part 2 of this article out, but I became extremely sick on Tuesday night and it completely cooked the rest of my week. I’m still not at 100% but at least I’ve been able to get out of bed and do some things before crashing back out for another few hours. My body couldn’t get sick in November-December?! January-February is quite literally the worst time for me to be out of commission for days at a time! At any rate, let’s dive back into our hitters and finish up the lineup. Just to refresh if you forgot from Part 1 or didn’t read Part 1, we’re picking our favorite hitters after pick-300. Next week, we’ll do pitchers.
The #6 overall pick from 2023 debuted right out of the All-Star break and even got a hit in first MLB plate appearance only to suffer a hamstring strain in the 4th inning of that game and ended up missing a month-plus on the IL. Upon returning, he didn’t really stand out with just a .615 OPS, 0 HR/SB in 102 PA. The one positive takeaway was his plate approach: 10% K, 8% BB. Over the course of a full season, I like him for way better than the .250 AVG we saw in his debut. The projections agree, ranging from .269 to .287, so that will be the draw of Wilson as neither the power nor the speed are particularly special.
This is another one of my favorite offseason exercises. Last week, I went through the Steamer600 projections to uncover some potential gems who could break out if they get that kind of playing time. Today we’re on the hunt again, this time for gold (they’re minerals, Marie!) and we’re doing so by lopping off the first 300 picks of the Average Draft Position and then picking our players.
Later this week, I’ll have the rest of the lineup and then next week, I’ll share my pitchers.
This one is very straightforward: a super powerful catcher-eligible bat in Coors. He also played some 1B and LF so he could be a non-catching catcher. He must figure out how to hit first! Goodman clubbed 13 HRs in just 70 games last season, but his 0.13 BB/K was tied for 3rd-lowest (min. 220 PA) as he posted a 61 wRC+ in 224 PA. He did have a 0.35 BB/K (MLB league average: 0.36) in 1259 minor league plate appearances so he has shown some ability to draw a walk. Think Patrick Wisdom in Coors if things work out for Goodman. Wisdom clubbed 30 HRs/500 PA from 2021-23 despite a paltry 0.26 BB/K and .214 AVG in 1211 PA.
One of my favorite traditions every winter is to peruse our Steamer600 projections and dream about some potential breakthrough seasons. This puts everyone on equal footing playing time-wise since it is the most difficult factor to consistently project as Rob Manfred simply refuses to turn off injuries in the global settings of the game!
Here are some of my favorite potential breakouts using these numbers:
CATCHER (they do make an exception at C where it’s 450 PA since very few Cs log 600)
I am still on the Moreno Train! He couldn’t really build on his 2023 breakout because while he did add a few points to his wRC+ total, he only played 97 games and saw his .284 AVG drop 18 points. Thumb and adductor strains in June and August, respectively, cost him about a month of time and contributed to his modest overall output. While it didn’t yield much in the way of his counting stats, it is worth noting that Moreno had a sharp improvement in plate skills, doubling his BB/K from 0.8, tops among catchers with at least 350 PA. A fully healthy season could see the 25-year-old backstop eclipse 400 PA for the first time while this projection likes him for a power surge, too. We did catch a glimpse of power production during their World Series run in 2023 as Moreno clubbed 4 HRs in 70 PA after hitting 7 in 380 during the regular season. The batting average is the key though, so even if he stays more in the 5-7 HR range, there is upside to chase with Moreno. In the last five full seasons (so 2019 added in to replace 2020) there have been just eight instances of a catcher hitting .280+ in at least 400 PA with William Contreras being the only guy to do it twice. I like Moreno to join that club in 2025.
