Author Archive: Paul Sporer

One upshot of the strikeout-heavy environment we currently have in the MLB is the rise of middle relievers. Usually you have to be logging or close to logging saves to get a sniff on the fantasy landscape, especially in mixed leagues, but elite-level setup men are starting to make a dent even without proximity to saves. Holds have become more prevalent in leagues which automatically gives them some enhanced value, but even if we are just talking a standard 5×5 league with 10-12 teams, there are some RPs who are too good sit on the wire.

Last year we saw Dellin Betances and Wade Davis develop into must-own players despite a whopping four saves between them. Betances was New York’s super-reliever setting up David Robertson, logging 90 innings in just 70 appearances with a 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP plus an eye-popping 135 strikeouts. Davis tried starting his first year in KC and it just wasn’t working. He’d failed at starting with TB, too, spent his final season with the Rays in the bullpen (70 IP of 2.43 ERA). He dwarfed those figures in 2014: 1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts in 72 IP not to mention nine vulture wins and three of those aforementioned four saves.

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Episode 248

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette wrap up the holiday weekend with a free-form episode of the show. We jump around a bit from player to player, topic to topic, including but not limited to Clay Buchholz, J.D. Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, Stephen Strasburg, Asdrubal Cabrera, and second-half expectations. Even without a setlist, we find plenty to talk about.

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Episode 247

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris have a great Thursday show hitting the news on George Springer’s injury, the debuts of Jose Fernandez, Matt Cain, and Matt Moore, Miguel Sano’s promotion, the SF closer situation, and Freddie Freeman’s diagnosis update.

Then we cover our June Swoons:

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Mike Montgomery is on fire. He has risen from the ashes of old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks to all of a sudden become a key piece of the Mariners’ rotation. Podhorzer tried to get you on board a month ago. Did you listen? You didn’t, I knew it. Well, you missed 38 innings of a 1.64 ERA and 0.89 WHIP including back-to-back shutouts. So the best is almost certainly behind him, but it’s not like he has to maintain a 1.64 ERA or he can’t be picked up. He could reasonably add two runs to his ERA and still be a plus asset delivering quality innings.

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Continuing with my Hail Mary Pitchers from last week, here are the final two categories:

Young Unknowns

The Young Unknowns are the shiny new toys who are having some success this year, but carry risk due to a lack of track record. That volatility could definitely burn you, but when you’re in Hail Mary mode, that upside is desirable enough to take on the risk. These guys won’t necessarily come cheaply because they aren’t failing, but they will usually still be cheaper than what a peak version of him with a track record would cost.

Danny Salazar, CLE – Salazar has so many appealing aspects to his profile that it seems ludicrous to find him on any kind of list like this, but his ERA is now at 4.06 after his start on June 23rd against Detroit (4.3 IP/6 ER). He has absolutely devastating stuff: 30% K rate, 6% BB rate, 46% GB rate, and 13% SwStr rate.

These are all in line with his work in 162 IP from 2013-14, but his primary issue from those seasons – a 1.1 HR/9 – has been even worse this year at 1.4 HR/9. His 16% HR/FB rate is a career-high and could be ready to move closer to the 11% league mark. He also cut his flyball rate from 42% to 36% so the volume of homers should definitely drop if he gets that HR/FB rate in check.

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Episode 246

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris have a great Tuesday show on tap talking just a little injury news out front followed by a discussion of the #1 player right now plus we talk June Boons – guys a little lower on the spectrum who had huge Junes. We discuss how they will fare the rest of the way. Details below:

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Episode 245

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss the injury news about three stars and a couple guys all too familiar with injuries. Then they discuss Steven Matz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, Collin McHugh, Matt Moore, Justin Turner, and Josh Phegley.

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A couple weeks ago I shared my Hail Mary infield, a group of infielders you should consider collecting on a struggling team in the hopes that you hit it big with them returning to form. The idea is that you can also get them at a discount, thus a surge to their talent level would net a huge payoff. Today I’m going to hit the mound and discuss the Hail Mary pitchers. Pitching can deliver a bigger payoff in most cases. League standings will dictate which side you’re better off attacking, but a big pitching run can pay huge dividends in relatively short order.

Four of the five hitting categories are counting stats so the accumulation to make a move can be more of a slow burn. Additionally, the one rate stat (usually AVG or OBP) doesn’t usually move too quickly once we get around this point in the season as the ABs/PAs start to pile up. A single exemplary performance from a hitter – even something like 5-for-5 with a homer and six RBIs – rarely has the impact that one huge start does and once start stringing them together, movement comes quickly.

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It was a Monday night just a few weeks ago that I watched the destruction of two high-quality pitchers (one is a bona fide ace) sink my DFS evening yet again and I actually wrote about it at another outlet. Just three weeks later, I saw my DFS night end before it started as another pitcher had his face caved in and this time by baseball’s worst team both by record and wRC+ against righties. Michael Pineda was rocked for eight earned on 11 hits in just 3.3 innings with nary a strikeout to soften the blow.

It’s the second time in three starts that Pineda has been blown up like this and the fourth time this year he’s allowed five or more earned runs. This is the same guy who has a 16-strikeout game on his ledger this year as well as three others of nine strikeouts. This is the same guy who had a 2.72 ERA through his first seven starts of the season.

But the volatility, my god, the volatility.

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Episode 244

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news about Freddie Freeman, Jered Weaver, Travis d’Arnaud, and Erasmo Ramirez. Then they discuss the trade rumors swirling around Cole Hamels which leads into a discussion about trading Mike Trout in one of his leagues.

Tuesday’s main topic is about guys playing like studs that we haven’t talked much this year:

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