Hail Mary Pitchers – Young Unknowns/Buy-Highs

Continuing with my Hail Mary Pitchers from last week, here are the final two categories:

Young Unknowns

The Young Unknowns are the shiny new toys who are having some success this year, but carry risk due to a lack of track record. That volatility could definitely burn you, but when you’re in Hail Mary mode, that upside is desirable enough to take on the risk. These guys won’t necessarily come cheaply because they aren’t failing, but they will usually still be cheaper than what a peak version of him with a track record would cost.

Danny Salazar, CLE – Salazar has so many appealing aspects to his profile that it seems ludicrous to find him on any kind of list like this, but his ERA is now at 4.06 after his start on June 23rd against Detroit (4.3 IP/6 ER). He has absolutely devastating stuff: 30% K rate, 6% BB rate, 46% GB rate, and 13% SwStr rate.

These are all in line with his work in 162 IP from 2013-14, but his primary issue from those seasons – a 1.1 HR/9 – has been even worse this year at 1.4 HR/9. His 16% HR/FB rate is a career-high and could be ready to move closer to the 11% league mark. He also cut his flyball rate from 42% to 36% so the volume of homers should definitely drop if he gets that HR/FB rate in check.

Drew Hutchison, TOR – He’s free. Or he should be, at least. He may be 100% free on your waiver wire, but I can’t imagine he’d cost you much via trade if he is still on a roster. Hutch has five outings of fewer than five innings and he allowed 31 ER of his 49 season ER in those horrible starts. He has a 2.57 ERA in his other 10 starts (63 IP).

His problem this year is the opposite of last years as righties are smashing him to the tune of a .904 OPS. Lefties are down to .673 for the season. Last year, it was righties at .605 and lefties at .817. In a weird way this is encouraging because he has shown for an extended period that he can handle each side of the plate. The potential remains strong if he can put the pieces together.

The fact is he’s learning on the job. He’s just 24 years old. He logged just 235 innings in the minors before skipping Triple-A en route to the Jays. Tack on another handful in 2013 during his Tommy John surgery recovery and he’s at 270. He’s already eclipsed that at the major league level with 326, but a lot of these are developmental. I still think he will be a high-impact arm when it fully clicks and if I’m taking chances anyway, I like this gamble.

Lance McCullers, HOU – McCullers is looking completely legit through nine starts with a 27% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and a solid 1.4 GB/FB ratio that only aids his power stuff. McCullers made the jump from Double-A and control was the biggest concern. His 9.5% walk rate there was actually a career-best so expecting him to bring all of it (and then some) to the majors was a risky proposition. So far, so good.

That is still where your risk lies when acquiring him, though. It’s not like he’s pounding the zone or getting ahead of batters a whole bunch. He’s succeeding because he simply has remarkably nasty stuff that induces swings and misses. Big leaguers may start to lay off of it more often in the coming months, but it’s so good that I think he can be successful with his stuff in the zone. So planning for the opposition to make an adjustment on him, I still see a path where he adjusts back and maintains his success.

The other big question is about his innings. He’s up at 82 for the season after just 97 all of last year. I expect the Astros to be aggressive, but that aggressiveness won’t necessarily help us in the fantasy realm because I’m talking playoffs. I don’t think they’re going to let McCullers help carry them there and then sit him. So my guess is that they’ll massage him to about 140 in the regular season with the idea that they’d be willing to give him another 20 in the playoffs (assuming they made it that far).

That leaves us just 58 for the rest of the season. That’ll only get you through about 10 starts. It’s tough because he looked like a potential reliever coming up and Houston dabbled with him there so he’s never had big innings totals as a minor league with just 105 back in 2013. Keep this in mind when acquiring him, too, as you can tell your trade partner that you’re willing to pay something of value, but that McCullers Jr. isn’t getting the three months of starts that most other guys are the rest of the way so the price can’t be astronomical.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS – Some of his recent work has worn off some of the luster (16 ER in his last three) and another look at the team that inflicted the bulk of that damage (Toronto got him for 9 ER three starts ago) in their home park could push his price tag even further. He’s still showing fantastic skills to the point where the recent struggles really feel like little more than rookie hiccups.

His June 14th start against Toronto is really his only poor outing. They smashed him for nine earned in 4.7 innings with eight hits and three walks. He fanned just one batter. Even when Baltimore got to him for six earned, it was one bad inning. Literally, that’s it. He was perfect through three with five strikeouts and then got hammered in the fourth: pop out, double, single, HR, single, single, double, single, lineout, day over. You can’t just wash it away and say it doesn’t count, but it’s not indicative of major issues.

It was one bad inning. That happens to six-year vets, so of course it will happen to guys on their sixth start. That Toronto outing takes his strikeout rate from 26% to 22% in one fell swoop. His other five starts have seen him fan 7, 7, 7, 5, and 5. I’m very eager to see him get a second shot against Toronto. They destroy lefties and I’d love to see him respond with a big effort.

As with most of these youngsters, innings the rest of the way are a concern for Rodriguez, though not to the level of McCullers. Rodriguez logged 120 innings last year and 145 the year before. He’s at 84 so far this year. I could see them letting him go 160 this year with the option to go a bit higher if they surge back into contention.

With the current configuration of the rotation, he’s got about 17 turns left in the rotation. He isn’t getting there on 75 innings, but that could get him another 12-13 starts which could pretty easily be massaged to season’s end with a few skips.

Also consider: Noah Syndergaard, NYM – He’s only in the considerations because I’m not sure there will even be much of a discount for him. He was one of the most popular prospects coming into the year and he’s paid off nicely on the hype. His 3.59 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 53 Ks in as many innings with just 10 walks do jump off the page as awesome.

His 5.3 K:BB ratio is 13th-best among guys with 50+ IP, just behind names like Corey Kluber (5.5), Madison Bumgarner (5.5), and Chris Archer (5.2) while sitting just ahead of names like Masahiro Tanaka (5.1), Johnny Cueto (4.8), and David Price (4.8) – all elite names. The Mets will massage his innings, but he went 133 last year so a 160ish workload isn’t out of the question at all. That leaves a solid 80 or so the rest of the way (he has 83 so far).

They’ve already been skipping and six-manning their rotation to protect their young arms, so it’s known that will happen with Syndergaard, too, but he should make it the rest of the year with his allotted innings. It might only be 13-14 starts instead of the upper-teens total that the schedule would allow with him going every fifth day, but I prefer fewer starts that aren’t artificially capped at five innings just to protect him as opposed to 17-18 starts where several see him pulled before necessary to save some innings.

Carlos Rodon, CWS – It took a month for Rodon to join the rotation and he dazzled upon arrival with five gems in his first six starts (2.62 ERA, 36 Ks in 34.3 IP), but 20 walks threw up a caution flag. The caution proved prescient as he’s allowed 13 of his 25 season ER in his last three starts. Oddly enough, walks weren’t a factor in his worst outing (3.7 IP/7 ER at PIT) with just one.

The tough run earned him a breather as the White Sox are skipping him this week. And there will probably be other skips here and there as I’ve mentioned with the others. He did throw 124 innings between NC State and the minors last year and he’s at 65.3 so far this year. He should make it through the season without too much trouble for the White Sox in terms of innings and games left. It remains to be seen if he’ll last as a starter for the Sox if he doesn’t iron out the control some more.

He’s walking five batters per game and that won’t work, especially if you’re not stifling hits (9.8 per nine). He shouldn’t be too expensive for a Hail Mary situation because his numbers just aren’t that flashy and his WHIP is downright awful at 1.65. The bet is that he clicks with the command and control and takes off. The stuff is there, but he’s (not unexpectedly) raw.

Joe Ross, WAS – A rotation spot holds Ross back right now as he sits in Triple-A, but he had a great 20-inning audition in early-June when Stephen Strasburg was on the shelf. Two of his three starts were especially impressive totaling 15.3 innings of three-run ball with 19 strikeouts and just two walks against the Brewers and Pirates. Ross, the brother of Tyson, was acquired from San Diego this offseason and made his jump from Double-A before returning to Triple-A.

He’ll wait out there for now as a healthy Nats rotation is tough to break into, but you can never guarantee health and Doug Fister could put his spot in jeopardy if he doesn’t pitch more like he did against Atlanta his last time out (7 IP/0 ER).

Vincent Velasquez, HOU – He’s not terribly different from McCullers in a lot of ways: dominated Double-A before arriving, well-built righty (6’3, 205), power arm (95 MPH avg. fastball), curveball and changeup as secondary pitches. VV’s breaker isn’t quite as good as L-Mc’s so he has to rely on his heater more and the results haven’t been nearly as good, but there is upside to bet on here.

Buy-Highs

This category, like the others I’d imagine, is pretty self-explanatory at least in terms of the general idea, but these aren’t just any buy-highs. These are the guys who are excelling, but it’s a little bit out of nowhere so he may not be priced at a level commensurate with his production, thus it’s a buying opportunity. If these guys cost ace or near-level prices in your league, move on, but in a lot of cases they won’t.

These guys are listed in order expense-to-value ratio. Guys at the bottom are more likely to be very expensive so you might have to pass on them. It’ll be case-by-case, but definitely check in with the team that has these guys and you may be surprised at the price compared to what they’ve done.

Jason Hammel, CHC – Even though he has been a better version of the Cubs version we saw last year, there is still skepticism around him. His huge season isn’t getting much run despite the Cubs playing really well. The attention is usually focused on the young bats, but even when the attention turns to the mound, it’s Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester grabbing the headlines.

I made my feelings for Hammel known just about a month ago and my opinion of him has only improved since then. St. Louis knocked him around some in his last outing (4 IP/4 ER), but it was after two rain delays and he still had a 7/1 K:BB ratio in that game. If anything, this just opens the window a little more for a buying opportunity. He hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a single start and he’s fanned 5+ in all but two of his 15 starts.

Everything is in place for Hammel right now. This isn’t an out-of-nowhere performance, but he is still treated like a newcomer to upper levels of pitching by some because he lacks prime name value. Parlay that lack of name value into a (relative) bargain frontliner. You can probably get Hammel and something for your ace en route to your Hail Mary rebuild.

A.J. Burnett, PIT – Hammel may be overlooked by Burnett is just generally disliked by a large contingent of the fantasy community. Sure, he can be a little salty out there at times, but perhaps it’s some of that fiery attitude that has him still performing at a peak level at age-38. His return Pittsburgh was a great idea this offseason for both sides and it’s paid huge dividends. He’s pitching even better than his first time around with the Pirates:

Burnett	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2012-13	393.3	3.41	1.23	24%	8%
2015	98.3	2.01	1.24	22%	7%

Let’s be honest, he never should’ve left Pittsburgh, but at least he got back there as soon as possible. It’s easy to say the 38-year old won’t continue his 2.01 ERA, but it’s the first of those two numbers that will earn you the discount. The fantasy community is ageist and it creates great buying opportunities for anyone north of 35 who is performing well. His ERA is likely to rise, but he can definitely be a low-3.00s guy the rest of the way with these skills.

Michael Wacha, STL – Wacha has been dominating all year, yet there is still some skepticism around him that I think stems from the early season strikeout struggles. He had more than four just once in his first six starts resulting in a 12% strikeout rate that left his 2.09 ERA a little cold. Most called for regression on the ERA, but it seemed to me like the strikeouts would get the regression as he’d never been anywhere near that low before and his stuff suggested this was just a blip.

Wacha brought a 23% K rate into the season over 172 IP and he’s been that guy again in his last nine starts with a 24% K rate in 55.7 IP. After topping five Ks just once in those first six, he’s dipped below that number just once in these last nine (4 in seven strong v. KC, the lowest-strikeout tm in the league). Meanwhile, the ERA has also regressed (as expected when it’s that low), but his 3.23 ERA during these nine starts is far from bad.

At his best, I think Wacha can combine a sub-3.00 ERA with a 23-25% strikeout rate and doing so on the best team on the league will put him in line for another 10 wins the rest of the way. Wins are annoying, but you feel pretty good about logging a bunch when you acquire a Cardinals pitcher. Speaking of…

Carlos Martinez, STL – He might actually be the toughest to acquire on this list if the team with him in your league has been a long-time believer. “Long-time” is relative as he’s just 23 years old and has been in the league for a whopping three seasons, but this is the kind of performance that his most ardent believers were waiting for now that he’s a full-time starter. This won’t be the case in every league so definitely inquire about getting the young stud via trade.

The development of his changeup has been instrumental in this early-season success. He’s using it 19% of the time, far and away a career-high, and it now gives him a sharp three-pitch arsenal and something to regularly combat lefties. Even with better work against them this year, he still has a 164-point platoon split in favor of lefties (.776 OPS), but it’s down to 118 points this year as he’s smothering righties (.597) and capably handling lefties (.715).

As with some of the young unknowns (and maybe he belongs in that group, but he’s a more known commodity at the big-league level), his remaining workload is a bigger question than his talent. He’s spent the bulk of his last two seasons in relief resulting in just 99 innings of work. He’s six shy of that figure already this year so it might be tough to keep in the rotation for the remainder of the season, especially since they’ll need him for the playoffs.

That said, I’m still interested because his impact for the starts he does have left can be elite-level.

Dallas Keuchel, HOU – The tide is starting to turn on Keuchel. He earns more believers every time out and he has 17 shutout innings with 19 Ks since I made the initial lists for this project so his price is no doubt on the rise. And yet, he’s still not widely seen as a frontline option. For everything he does well, all we usually hear about is the one thing he doesn’t dominate at: getting strikeouts.

No, he’s not that top 5 arm who gives you the elite innings, ratios, strikeouts, and wins, but he’s got four of the five down pat and it’s not like he has a 15% strikeout rate. His 21% mark is a career-best and above the 19% league average for starters. He is no longer strikeout-deficient, but even if he “only” had the 18% rate we saw in 2013-14, he’s still doing enough everywhere else to be a star.

The 65% groundball rate affords Keuchel the ability to be excellent even without an eye-popping strikeout rate like the 25%+ rates we see populating the top of the leaderboards. The only one delivering that kind of strikeout rate with a Keuchelian GB rate is Tyson Ross at 25% and 62%, respectively.