Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Last Friday, we looked at some AL lineup gems – guys who are slated to bat in the top four of their order while going at pick 200 or later in NFBC Drafts. Sometimes just batting high in the order regularly can spike a guy’s value and spur a breakout. When Charlie Blackmon was having his insane April back in 2014, one of the main reasons anybody took a shot on him was the fact that he was batting atop the Colorado lineup. Even if he couldn’t maintain that pace (he couldn’t), he would at least be collecting plenty of PAs atop a stellar lineup in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment.

Here are 15 National Leaguers projected by Roster Resource to bat in the top four of their team’s lineup, available at pick 200 or later:

LEADOFF

Scooter Gennett [MIL, 454th pick overall] – Gennett got off to a brutal start last year and then a hand injury cost him two weeks in late-April. He wasn’t much better upon return and then got sent down for about a month. He was kinda left for dead at that point and so I don’t think many realized he returned and looked like the guy we’d seen in 2013-14. He hit .287 with 5 HR in 322 PA the rest of the way. The 26-year old got a late start to his Cactus League campaign, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

John Jaso [PIT, 533rd] – Unfortunately Jaso is DH-only in most leagues with just 8 games in the outfield last year, but the dude can flat out hit when healthy. Of course, health has eluded him as much as defensive skill, so he’s yet to log 110 games in a season. He’s best deployed in leagues with daily lineups so you can slot him against righties-only. He has a career .797 OPS against them in 1631 PA and has batted under .272 just once. He will add 1B eligibility pretty early into 2016, though he doesn’t really have the power to carry that position, so he’s more of a CI/UT option.

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3/28/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Matt Harvey scratched, OD in doubt (4:00)
• Lonnie Chisenhall to DL [forearm] (6:17)
• Nate Karns & Vincent Velasquez win 5th starter roles (9:30)
• Tyler White makes Astros OD roster (17:45)

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Starting pitching used to be the calling card of the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello giving them one of the most potent quintets in the game. Fister was traded to the Nationals with Drew Smyly next in line, but then they upgraded him to David Price for the 2014 stretch run. Then Scherzer went to the Nationals, Porcello was traded to the Red Sox, Verlander fell on hard times, and Sanchez’s health went south again and all of a sudden it was Price & pray in 2015. Instead of running out the rest of his final year, they traded him to the Blue Jays last year and sealed a last-place finish in the AL Central, their worst finish since 2008.

The Price trade helped the Tigers retool instead of rebuild thanks to the acquisitions of Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd. Meanwhile, Verlander got his groove back (2.27 ERA in final 99.3 IP), and the Nationals once again figured prominently in Detroit’s pitching plans – this time with an acquisition from them as Jordan Zimmermann inked a 5-year, $110-million dollar deal this offseason. Verlander and Zimmermann are locked in as the workhorses atop the rotation and the Tigers will need 400+ innings from them to compete this year. Sanchez got a late start in Spring Training due to triceps inflammation, but after one solid start, there is already talk of him pitching game two in Miami to open the season. So the top three spots are set (as long as Sanchez stays upright, at least).

That leaves four candidates for the remaining two spots – Norris, Boyd, Shane Greene, and the less-heralded offseason signing: Mike Pelfrey (2 yrs, $16-mil). Pelfrey has the four-spot, but I still can’t muster a case to draft him and his 13% career strikeout rate. He has looked good in Spring Training (and not just the numbers, but I saw him pitch well on my TV), but it’s still a no. Let’s focus on the fifth-starter candidates.

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You have no doubt heard the phrase “playing time is currency” at some point in the last couple of years. I didn’t make it up and I don’t know who did, but it was probably Todd Zola or Ron Shandler because they have all the best catchphrases for fantasy baseball. I use it all the time, though, because it’s true and good to remember. It’s particularly pertinent in this era when PED use is less rampant (not eradicated, but certainly down).

To my mind, staying on the field was biggest advantage to be had by using. Consider that from 1996-2008, we saw an average of about six guys per year play all 162 games, but in the seven years since, that average has plummeted to just two per year with a high of four (2012, 2013, and 2014). Teams aren’t shy about using the disabled list these days, either, so just being in the lineup is a boon for a player, especially in deep leagues.

I think we’ve long known how important it is to roster guys who bat high in the order, but the DFS era has put a fine point on that factor. Combined with the drop in guys logging 162 games, it’s more beneficial than ever to get guys who regularly slot in those top four spots of a lineup – even a modest-to-bad lineup. Of course, those are usually the best guys in the lineup and as such they go in the first several rounds. However, you can still find guys going late in drafts who are slated to bat high in their order. These can be draft day gems just by virtue of that abundant playing time high in an order even if they don’t show any tangible skills growth to justify their slotting. Here are 15 American Leaguers projected (by Roster Resource) to bat in the top four of lineups while going after pick 200 in NFBC drafts:

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3/25/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @jeffwzimmerman

Strategy Section

• We deep-dive our Mixed H2H Tout Wars Auction (a brand new format in Tout Wars)
• Tout Wars Rules
• Part 1 of Jeff’s Write-Up
• Tout Wars Auction Boards

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3/24/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Strategy Section

• We dissect and review Jason’s AL Tout Wars Team for the bulk of the show and finish with some musings from the NL which he sat in on as the chat operator.
• Jason’s written review for Rotowire
• Tout Wars Auction Boards
• How to Create a Position Cheatsheet by Tanner Bell

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As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 80 minutes of joyous analysis.

Julio Teheran wasn’t great last year, especially from a fantasy standpoint. His 4.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP were very different from the 3.03/1.12 he put together in 2013-14. He looked like an emerging star on the mound and was treated as such, going 20th among starting pitchers in 2015 drafts. He finished just 63rd on ESPN’s player rater and now has many running for the hills, but I’m not sure it’s all doom-and-gloom for the 25-year old righty.

First off, he stayed healthy and took his 33 turns in the rotation. Additionally, I think his struggles are overstated and primarily confined to a handful of hideous starts as opposed to sustained mediocrity (or worse). Bill James’ Game Score stat is hardly perfect, but it gives us a general idea of how a pitcher fared in a given start. You want at least a 50 score and anything below a 40 is awful.

He had as many 40 or worse Game Scores in 2015 as he did in 2013 and 2014 combined. Meanwhile, he was in line with his output of 50+ Game Scores. To put it another way, Teheran’s five starts of 6+ ER were tied for the third-most with a large group. It should come as no surprise then, that as he cut down the implosion outings, he looked more and more like himself. From July on, he posted a 3.23 ERA in 106 IP with just one of those 6+ ER outings on his ledger (an 8 ER demolition at the hands of the Yankees).

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3/23/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Andre Ethier out 10-14 weeks w/broken tibia (3:14)
• A.J. Pollock bum elbow, not expected to need DL (10:45)
• Tyler Naquin on track to start in CF (12:24)
• Kevin Gausman shoulder tendinitis (16:20)

Strategy Section

• Spring Standouts – Changing Your Outlook?
  • Keon Broxton (.914 OPS, 6 SB) (19:45)
  • Maikel Franco (7 HR) (25:25)
  • Danny Valencia (5 HR, 1.471 OPS) (32:27)
  • Jean Segura (.525 AVG, 5 XBH) (36:24)
  • Daniel Nava (.500 AVG, angling for starting role in LAA) (42:42)
• Eno’s updated ranks
  • Biggest movers
    • Matt Moore (49:42)
    • Vincent Velasquez (54:08)
    • Adam Conley (55:14)
    • Kyle Gibson (56:36)
    • Wade Miley (59:40)
  • Biggest fallers
    • Jeff Samardzija (1:05:40)
    • Rich Hill (1:08:42)
    • Yu Darvish (50:58)
    • Scott Kazmir (1:16:56)
    • Julio Teheran (1:18:14)

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

I know what you’re thinking about the Miami Marlins rotation, you’re all “Jose Fernandez and IDGAF about the rest!”, but there’s a chance for some sneaky upside behind the undisputed ace and top-10 (at least… he’s 6th among SPs in NFBC draft data) arm in Fernandez. The Marlins got just 64.7 innings from their ace last year so they were unsurprisingly below average as a unit. They finished 18th in ERA and FIP, 27th in K-BB%, and 17th in WHIP. A full season of Fernandez will go a long way toward improving those numbers, so the guys you so callously discarded will be instrumental to any success the Marlins have in 2016.

The battles such as they are in the Miami rotation are at the backend, but let’s talk about their #2 starter first. Wei-Yin Chen come over on a 5-year, $80 million dollar deal and while he was a nerve-wracking pitcher to have on your roster as part of the Baltimore Orioles, his outlook greatly improves in the NL and Miami, specifically. As an Oriole, he posted a 3.72 ERA in 706.7 innings with 31+ starts in three of the four seasons. Chen doesn’t miss a ton of bats and has home run tendencies, but he doesn’t walk guys which helps minimize the longball damage.

Camden Yards exacerbated the home run issue, but the AL Beast ensured that homers were an issue everywhere (1.3 at home, 1.1 on the road). His new home park alone is a massive upgrade on that front. Yeah, I know they moved the fences in and lowered them, but they aren’t turning it into a bandbox by any stretch of the imagination:

The big change will be to the right of the home run sculpture where the distance from home plate is being reduced from 418 to 407 feet.

Camden Yards has a three-year factor of 128 for lefties, 107 for righties on homers per StatCorner. Marlins Park is at 70/77, respectively, so even a big change (which I doubt is forthcoming) would still make it a much better environment for Chen. And that says nothing of the rest of the division which only has one HR-friendly park (Philly) compared to the AL East which only has one HR-suppressing park and that’s Fenway which severely curbs lefty homers, but is still hitter-friendly in runs.

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3/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Lance McCullers to DL
• Yasiel Puig no suspension
• MIL not naming a closer
• Juan Nicasio turning heads in PIT

Strategy Section: Good Guys Off Bad Years

• Yasiel Puig
• Carlos Gomez
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Ian Desmond
• Hanley Ramirez
• Anthony Rendon
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Yan Gomes
• Victor Martinez

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