Tigers Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

Starting pitching used to be the calling card of the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello giving them one of the most potent quintets in the game. Fister was traded to the Nationals with Drew Smyly next in line, but then they upgraded him to David Price for the 2014 stretch run. Then Scherzer went to the Nationals, Porcello was traded to the Red Sox, Verlander fell on hard times, and Sanchez’s health went south again and all of a sudden it was Price & pray in 2015. Instead of running out the rest of his final year, they traded him to the Blue Jays last year and sealed a last-place finish in the AL Central, their worst finish since 2008.

The Price trade helped the Tigers retool instead of rebuild thanks to the acquisitions of Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd. Meanwhile, Verlander got his groove back (2.27 ERA in final 99.3 IP), and the Nationals once again figured prominently in Detroit’s pitching plans – this time with an acquisition from them as Jordan Zimmermann inked a 5-year, $110-million dollar deal this offseason. Verlander and Zimmermann are locked in as the workhorses atop the rotation and the Tigers will need 400+ innings from them to compete this year. Sanchez got a late start in Spring Training due to triceps inflammation, but after one solid start, there is already talk of him pitching game two in Miami to open the season. So the top three spots are set (as long as Sanchez stays upright, at least).

That leaves four candidates for the remaining two spots – Norris, Boyd, Shane Greene, and the less-heralded offseason signing: Mike Pelfrey (2 yrs, $16-mil). Pelfrey has the four-spot, but I still can’t muster a case to draft him and his 13% career strikeout rate. He has looked good in Spring Training (and not just the numbers, but I saw him pitch well on my TV), but it’s still a no. Let’s focus on the fifth-starter candidates.

Norris

A lower back injury has essentially removed him from consideration, as he’s won’t be ready for Opening Day and will miss at least the first turn through the rotation. The 23-year old lefty probably has the most promise of bunch and showed some of it during an eight-start run with the team last season. He allowed 0-1 earned runs in four of those starts, posting a 3.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 36.7 IP. He only has 20 starts at Triple-A with mixed results so maybe some seasoning is just what he needs once he gets healthy. He is a popular late-round flier in deeper leagues as he will almost certainly be with the team at some point in 2016 and the upside is substantial if his command is right. It’s probably a year early to expect big things, but I completely understand why many are taking a shot on him just in case.

Boyd

Unlike Norris, Boyd’s first run with his new team didn’t go so well. He was tattooed for a 6.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 50.7 IP after the Price trade. There were glimpses of the quality stuff that made him so desirable in that trade, but he couldn’t consistently command it enough (2.1 HR/9, 9.9 H/9) to regularly get major league hitters. He’s had an up-and-down Grapefruit League, with his most recent work being on the down end and pushing closer toward to a start in the Toledo Mud Hens rotation when the season starts. He has even less Triple-A experience than Norris, but as a college product who is two years older, that’s less of a concern. At best, Boyd is a reserve flier in AL-only leagues right now. Keep an eye on him in Triple-A, but this isn’t a frontline prospect on the level of Norris.

Greene

We meet again, Mr. Greene. He was one of my favorite sleeper arms last year and even though buzz increased as the draft season wore on, he remained an inexpensive gamble throughout and finished as the 99th pitcher off the board on average (pick 332 overall). His high end was around 60th which was a rough area to be last year with Drew Hutchison, James Paxton, and Homer Bailey living in the 59-61 range, just ahead of AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel.

Three starts into the season, it looked like Greene could be contending for that award. He had just a 0.39 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 23 IP, logging at least seven in each start (though his 14% K% left something to be desired). His next three starts were as bad as those first three were good: 16.36 ERA and 2.64 WHIP in 11 IP. But hey, at least he got that K% up to 17%! Perhaps it was during those three starts that his hand aneurysm and freezing cold fingers started to affect him. He wound up with a 6.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 83.7 IP and his season was over by early-August, but he’s coming back healthy and appears to have a leg up in the fifth-start race.

A big spring has propelled the 27-year old right-hander, though the injury to Norris certainly opened the door as Greene was on a path toward Toledo when the season began back in February. I’m going back to the well with Greene. Even in the crappy year, his changeup took a step forward and he used it twice as often as 2014. His fastball will drive his success in 2016. It was a disaster against lefties last year which mitigated the changeup gains. His velocity is back up and he apparently reached 97 MPH, though stadium guns aren’t the most reliable source. Greene is a complete afterthought in leagues right now so he’s easy to roster as a reserve pick in deep mixers and AL-only leagues.