Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 28th, 2017
by Paul Sporer
April 28, 2017
Chat starts around 2:15 CT!
Author Archive
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 450 – Fast Starting Hitters
by Paul Sporer
April 28, 2017
4/27/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
- Cody Bellinger up for Joc Pederson – bid %?
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- Long-term worry for Jose Altuve after collision?
- Felix Hernandez to DL w/shoulder
- Devin Mesoraco activated – any hope?
Strategy Section: Fast Starts
HITTERS
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As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.
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Approximately 97 minutes of joyous analysis.
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The Early Surprises: Hitters
by Paul Sporer
April 26, 2017
I am working on a deeper dive into Eric Thames, but he left Wednesday’s game with an apparent injury so I wanted to table it just to see where he’s at because it dive into his value on the trade market and what you should hold out for if you’re looking to sell him. With that said, he won’t be included here. I’ve got five other hot hitters both young and old who are doing big things thus far. Let’s examine what – if anything – is different and then I’ll let you know if I think it’s sustainable and to what level.
Chase Headley | New York Yankees | .339/.431/.565 with 3 HR, 3 SB, 7 RBI, and 14 R in 72 PA
- Riding career-best strikeout (18%) and walk rates (14%)
- The walk rate is the bigger improvement from career (22% K, 10% BB)
- Getting and staying ahead: 46% first-pitch strike rate (F-Strike) & 17% O-Swing are career-bests
- Last year he had 59% F-Strike and 28% O-Swing rates
- Not hitting the ball any harder as his 25% Hard contact rate is a six-year low
- Meanwhile, his 20% Soft contact rate is a career-high
- Looking healthy with 3 SB which could yield first double-digit total since 2012
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 449 – Replacing Miggy & Marte
by Paul Sporer
April 22, 2017
4/22/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
- Worried about Jake Arrieta? (3:45)
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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 21st, 2017
by Paul Sporer
April 21, 2017
Looooootttssss of Eric Thames as well as plenty on Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Jose Bautista, and Lance McCullers. Plus, much more!
Tipping Pitches: Jason Vargas is Dominating
by Paul Sporer
April 21, 2017
Jason Vargas is pitching out of his mind right now. He has allowed just one run in 20.7 innings (0.44 ERA) with a 0.77 WHIP. Perhaps more impressive than the surface results is the fact that he has a 31% strikeout rate powered by a 13% swinging strike rate. His 3% walk rate is great, too, though less surprising given his career 7% mark. Three starts of a 3% for a guy who rarely walks batters isn’t crazy. The rest is just insane, though.
His velocity has always been underwhelming (~86-88 mph) and it’s on the low end this year at 86.6. Vargas is using essentially the same pitch mix, too: 55% fastballs, 30% changeups, and 15% curveballs. By the way, it’s worth noting that this kind of started last year in three late-September as he managed a 2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 23% K rate, and 10% SwStr rate in 12 IP. So comparing the 32.7 innings from 2016-17 to his 380 from 2013-15, the biggest differences I found were with the fastball and changeup against righties. There’s also a wholesale zone percentage change, up to 51% against a career 45% and sitting 39-41% from 2013-15, which shows up in the fastball/changeup against righties.
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 448 – Bullpen Chatter & Early Strugglers
by Paul Sporer
April 20, 2017
4/20/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!
We had some sound issues with Eno’s end, thanks to Christopher Welsh from InThisLeague.com for helping clean it up as best as he could and make it listenable.
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
- Is Freddie Freeman the 2nd-best 1B in the game?
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- How worried are you about Zach Britton?
- Shawn Kelley & Koda Glover in for Blake Treinen
- Matt Bush in for Sam Dyson
- Any concerns about:
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Replacing Starling Marte
by Paul Sporer
April 19, 2017
Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games on Tuesday after testing positive for Nandrolone back in Spring Training and then losing the subsequent appeal. Let’s be honest, the first thought for most of you was how it impacts your fantasy league, whether you have Marte or not. Replacing him will be no easy feat. He was a firm second rounder all draft season, going at pick 23 on average and falling no lower than pick 36 in NFBC drafts.
Despite losing 10 homers off his 2015 total, he still finished as the fifth-best outfielder last year according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Over the last four seasons, Marte has averaged 13 HR and 37 SB with a .292/.349/.448 line despite only once playing more than 135 games (153 in ‘15). He is coming off a career-high 47 SB and has at least 30 in each of the four seasons. Speed is the driving force behind his value and will be the toughest aspect replace. We’ll look at the potential in-house replacements as well as a group of available outfielders at the various sites worth considering.
IN-HOUSE
Austin Meadows, the team’s top prospect, was the first name to cross everyone’s mind when they heard about the suspension. However, GM Neal Huntington has suggested that Meadows isn’t quite ready just yet:
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 447 – Getting SMART w/Glenn Colton
by Paul Sporer
April 17, 2017
4/17/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
- How are your industry league teams doing?
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
- Michael Pineda thoughts (saw your tweet ribbing Howard)
- Jose Abreu concerns
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 446 – Making a Judgment Call
by Paul Sporer
April 16, 2017
4/15/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!
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Leading Off:
- Jackie Robinson Day
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play (12:00)
- Jon Gray to DL w/toe
- Jake Odorizzi to DL w/hammy
- Marcus Semien sore right wrist (30:30)
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