Author Archive: Paul Sporer

The fantasy community gets a little bit of a breather during the playoffs. Unless you’re one of those playing a postseason contest, this is the first baseball you can just sit back and watch in quite a while. Of course, we’re always analyzing and assessing players. Every October there is a player or a few players who do so well in the playoffs that they push their draft price up for the following spring.

Walker Buehler was the standout Playoff Tax player last year and it wasn’t even all success driven. His response to a second inning blowup in Game 3 of the LDS was really impressive. He followed it up with three perfect innings, highlighting the kind of talent and mettle in the 23-year old righty. He then put up a 2.41 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 22 Ks and 1 BB in his remaining three playoff starts (18.7 IP). He was already going to be sought after in drafts, but by the end of the 2018 postseason, he ascended into the top 12-15 of starters after closing the regular season around 20th. He wasn’t the only one to go off in the playoffs and increase his draft cost, but he was the most notable.

Here is a candidate from each NL playoff team (AL tomorrow) who could greatly improve their draft cost with a big October.

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9/30/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

POSITIONAL POST MORTEMS

Razzball Player Rater (type C or 1B into the POS field after it loads)

•  CATCHER
  • Kurt Suzuki (3:40)
  • The Studs – J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sánchez, Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, Wilson Ramos (4:24)
  • Mitch Garver (5:40)
  • Christian Vazquez (7:15)
  • James McCann (9:44)
  • Omar Narváez (11:40)
  • Travis d’Arnaud (14:58)
  • Jorge Alfaro (19:43)
  • Roberto Pérez (24:10)

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9/27/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

STUDS SINCE AUGUST 1ST:

• Sean Manaea
• Mike Foltynewicz
• Dakota Hudson

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A September surge doesn’t guarantee success the following year. For every Luke Voit (208 wRC+ in September 2018; 128 in 2019), Ketel Marte (148; 151), Yuli Gurriel (160; 134), there’s a Ryan O’Hearn (157; 68), Kevin Kiermaier (162; 77), or Willson Contreras who actually had the worst September wRC+ (min. 70 PA) at 27 but rebounded for an excellent 2019 and career-best 129 wRC+. It doesn’t need a 100% success rate to be a worthy exercise, though.

Let’s look at a handful of September standouts (focusing primarily on guys who weren’t great through August) and see if they are worth buying into for 2020.

Eloy Jiménez, CWS | 188 wRC+ in September

Jimenez came into the season with major expectations only to labor through the first two months hitting just .220/.273/.390 with 6 HR and a high ankle sprain that shelved him for nearly a month. He soared from June 1st through the first week after the All-Star break (.921 OPS, 11 HR) and it looked like he was cool for the summer. But a bruised ulnar nerve shut him down for a minimum stay and curbed some of the momentum.

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.17 ERA) at CIN | 40%: He’s only been good since shifting over to Milwaukee (2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts) so that probably explains the roster rate, but don’t sleep on him. The Cincy offense is a little chilly, too, toting a .291 wOBA against righties in September.

Jeff Samardzija (11-12, 3.64) v. COL | 43%: I’m surprised his roster rate is this low, but he should be on a roster in most competitive. Check your wire juuust in case.

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9/22/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

Paul runs through the scheduled two-start pitchers and righty/lefty schedule splits of each team for next week highlighting who to start and potential platoon bats who could benefit.

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The newfound depth at shortstop and third base has sort of covered the fact that second base comes up a little light. Consider a dual-eligible player like Gleyber Torres. He ranks 5th at 2B on Razzball’s Player Rater, but sit 9th at SS. There are a host of dual- or even triple-eligible guys at the position, but they are often best deployed here at the keystone.

A wave of rookies who have burst onto the scene could give the position a modicum of depth for 2020, but that’s not a guarantee so we look at the position with some trepidation at this juncture. The top still has some major firepower so don’t be afraid to invest early, but then we get some big globs of sameness.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Joe Musgrove (10-12, 4.52) v. SEA | 44%: It’s hard not to feel that Musgrove is getting ready for his standard “rug-pull” start given the ups and downs of the season, but I’m still starting him here. He’s got a 3.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his last six starts spanning 34.7 innings, including 34 strikeouts against just six walks. The Mariners have just a .305 wOBA and 26% K rate against righties over the last month.

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9/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Blake Snell sharp in return (5:50)
• Luis Severino even sharper in return (7:55)
• Cavan Biggio cycle (9:15)
  • Garrett Hampson talk (14:10)
• Chris Paddack done (17:42)
• David Price done for the year (22:00)
• Caleb Smith talk (23:52)
• Lucas Giolito done for the year (26:40)

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Transcript is below!

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