What in the Melville?

You might not remember Tim Melville’s first 14.7 innings as a major leaguer, thrown in 2016-17 split between Cincinnati, Minnesota, and San Diego. I wouldn’t blame you for that as he had an 11.05 ERA, 2.59 WHIP, and 9.90 FIP with a hot 0% K-BB ratio. You might’ve even missed his 12 innings this year, an emergency start against Arizona during which he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks and then five shutout innings in Coors against the Braves thrown yesterday afternoon.

It’s hard to put much credence in any of the samples, but it’s clear that he’s markedly different than he was in 2016-17. First, he’s throwing 4 mph slower than he did in 2017, down to 89.7 mph, but he’s also not really throwing a fastball. In these 12 innings, he’s thrown his heater just 32% of the time. Instead, he’s decided to become a slider-first pitcher, throwing it 55% of the time so far.

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8/26/19

Originally uploaded the wrong file, that has been corrected as of 7:40 Central on 8/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

SEPTEMBER CALL UPS

• Kyle Tucker (1:45)
• Nate Lowe (5:18)
• Gavin Lux (7:50)

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8/23/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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FIRESIDE CHAT: 2020 SPs

Paul and Nick take a closer look at Paul’s early 2020 SP rankings. Nick highlights some of his disagreements including Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty, and Stephen Strasburg among others.

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Paul’s weekly chat starts now!

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8/22/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @RotoGut – Guest Vlad Sedler

2020 Draft – 3 Rounds

Vlad, Justin, and Paul each take control of five “teams” and draft the first three rounds for them and discuss the thought process behind the 45 picks.

Draft Board

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Another Big Opening Day for Casty

Nicholas "Galaxy Brain" Castellanos has some … ~thoughts~ … on why everyday is Opening Day.

📰: https://t.co/KZt8nOLqFk
📹: @RickTarsitano pic.twitter.com/NKGxuWGYrX

— Cut4 (@Cut4) August 22, 2019

Apparently, every day is Opening Day for the newest Cub Nicholas Castellanos and his “season” opens with a bang regularly as he’s been on fire since being traded over from Detroit. In just 19 games, he’s hitting a robust .392/.429/.785 with 8 HR (a full season pace of 69 nice homers), 12 RBI, and 17 R, quickly becoming a fan favorite in Wrigley. The 27-year old is still a negative defender, but he’s not worst-in-the-league level anymore making it easier to thrive on a NL team. He’s regaining his pre-2019 shine, so it’ll be interesting to see where he goes in 2020 drafts.

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8/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SPS ON FIRE SINCE THE BREAK:

• Ryan Yarbrough (1:40)
• Cal Quantrill (8:35)
• Zac Gallen (17:50)
• Chris Bassitt (28:00)

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German’s Home Run Troubles Continue

Domingo Germán came out of the break with six scoreless against Toronto, but has struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard in his other seven starts. He’s allowed 14 HR in 39.3 innings (3.2 HR/9), including four straight multi-homer outings. The schedule hasn’t been friendly with starts against TB, MIN, BOSx2, and TOR (the baby Jays are 7th in HRs v. righties since the break) not to mention a trip to face the Dodgers on the docket later this week. German could be hitting a wall coming down the stretch of his first full MLB season as a starter. If you need the strikeouts, keep him in the lineup, but if you’re protecting ratios, consider sitting him in these more difficult matchups.

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As we slog through the dog days and try to ignore the siren call of fantasy baseball, you might be locked in the bubble of your fantasy team(s) and missing some interesting performances going on lately. Have you noticed that…

• Kyle Seager is on fire, hitting 357/.419/.786 with 10 HR, 21 RBI, and 18 R since July 22nd.

Seager’s down 2018 carried over into 2019 when he started the season on the IL and then hit just .186/.260/.331 through 46 games before this recent run. His bottom line (108 wRC+) now looks a lot like the steady Eddie he was before last year and while he likely won’t remain this hot, he should continue to be a useful 3B or CI option.

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Transcript is below!

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