07/30/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Nate Pearson sharp in debut (Max even better)
• Cristian Javier outduel Dustin May
• Jesus Luzardo sharp in relief, to start next time out
• Zach Plesac awesome (Aaron Civale great on Wed, too)
  • Brad Hand blows it (trouble?)
• Charlie Morton’s misleading 2nd start
  • Oliver Drake has 2 SVs, then pitched in 6th
• Rich Hill great in season debut

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07/28/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• MIA COVID Outbreak
  • WAS doesn’t want to play them
  • NYY/PHI cancelled again Tuesday
• Nate Pearson starting Wednesday v. Max Scherzer
• Justin Verlander & Corey Kluber hurt
• Alex Wood to IL (shoulder)
• Mike Foltynewicz DFA’d

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Over the course of the 60-game season I’m going to run a 10 Tidbits piece each week just highlighting 10 pieces of info that I find fantasy relevant. They won’t necessarily be linked and sometimes I might even go past 10. None of them are likely worth their own article so this will essentially be a news & notes piece with a different alliterative name.

Kyle Lewis is Still Crushing the Ball

Lewis smacked 6 HR in 75 PA during his blazing hot cup of coffee last year, but his 39% K and 4% BB rates in that span made some nervous about him coming into 2020. He’s already hit another 2 HR (not has 8 in 93 MLB PA) and while the strikeout rate is still sky high at 44%, his walk rate has jumped to 17%. At worst, we have a Hunter Renfroe-esque profile here with premium power and a mediocre-to-poor batting average. At best, he keeps hitting the ball hard enough to generate a BABIP that outruns his strikeouts and deliver a .250-.270 AVG. Either way, I’m a fan.

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We have a shortened season which brings a lot of bold predictions into play. In fact, it might actually keep them from being bold which means we’ll have to amp up the boldness. I’ve got five I think are bold enough to qualify here. Let me know what you think in the comments and include your own big time bold prediction. Again, it has to be feasible but not obvious. Franmil Reyes isn’t projected to lead baseball in homers, but it’s not terribly bold to pick him, either. My boy Frankie Montas is a legitimate AL Cy Young candidate so while he’s far from the favorite, picking him wouldn’t really catch anyone’s attention.

Ramón Laureano is the #1 OF

The 25-year old power-speed stud for the A’s broke out with a 126 wRC+, .288 AVG, 24 HR, and 13 SB in 481 PA last year, good for 32nd on the Auction Calculator at the position with volume no doubt holding him back. With health, he’ll play close to all 60 games as a stud defender in center for Oakland which will give him a real chance to be tops at the position. He’s projected to finish 32nd again in the ATC projections thanks to a major dip in AVG, but I think he can deliver something special like a .320 AVG, 18 HR, and 15 SB with 37 R and 30 RBI.

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07/23/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• No Country for Old Jays
• Anthony DeSclafani to IL
• John Means to IL
• Charlie Blackmon ready to go
• Tom Murphy to IL

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I’m going to do a standard Bold Predictions later (maybe even on Friday since I don’t think two games on Thursday will invalidate anything), but first I wanted to pick some super outliers. Projections keep us level with our expectations, but our recently added 60-game leaderboard shows us that some wild stuff can go down in a two-month run.

I focused on the skill-based fantasy categories so I’m not doing anything with wins, saves, runs, or runs batted in. There will be some crazy results with those four categories, but role and team context are so important for those that options would be too limited. For the pitching ratios, I’ll be picking starting pitchers.

25+ HR GUY | Franmil Reyes, CLE

He ripped off a 21-homer run in a 60-game stretch last year that saw him hit .273/.316/.598 in 225 PA. That’s undoubtedly a great run, but I don’t think it’s the best he can do. I feel like Reyes’ best would include an OPS north of 1.000 for sure. He almost certainly won’t play all 60 games so he’ll need to push a 1.000+ OPS to smash 25+ homers in 50-55 games.

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For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term.

Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend.

The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm.

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07/21/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Corbin Burnes wins #2 job
• Ryan Pressly closer in waiting
• Gavin Lux sent down
• Masahiro Tanaka to IL w/concussion
• Griffin Canning dominant in final tuneup
• Carlos Martinez set to start
• Starlin Castro batting 3rd
• Anthony Rendon (oblique) might not be set for OD
• Jays likely playing in PNC

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