Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 29th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! Pardon the late start, but we’re here and ready to chat!!

ScottTINSTAAPP: Baseball!

Paul Sporer: Woooo!!!!

ScottTINSTAAPP: Sight unseen on two of them, but do you have a preference between Javier, Ponce de Leon and Sandoval?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Sandoval, but I’m keeping an eye on Javier. I actually learned of him via MLB The Show interestingly enough. I realize video game success doesn’t equal real life success, but it put him on my radar so I’m eager to see how he does tonight.

McP: Garrett Hampson barely seeing the field. How many times am I going to get the Rockies wrong before I learn my lesson?

Paul Sporer: LOL, fool me 4,713 times, shame on Colorado!!!!!

Cactus Bill: Start Dustin May tonight at the Astro?

Paul Sporer: Start/sit questions require context, y’all. I have no idea the league type so it’s not really easy to answer.

Salty: Over/Under Whitley gets called up and starts within the next 10 days.

Paul Sporer: I’ll take the over. I feel like if they really wanted him up, he’d have taken this spot Javier is in

ScottTINSTAAPP: Collateral damage from the pandemic…got addicted to OOTP and Perfect Team

Paul Sporer: Silver lining to the otherwise awful pandemic you mean, right?

Was Happenin: Thanks for doing this! Who would you rather take a flier on: Ian Happ or David Fletcher? Could Fletcher be this year’s LeMachine?

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome, thanks for coming out! I’m going Happ. I’ve been a big fan for a few years now and I think his power will give him the edge over Fletcher. I will say, Fletcher is intriguing especially with guaranteed playing time while Andrelton is on the IL, but it’s basically AVG only

Jonah hill: When are we gonna see major prospect call ups (Madrigal, Carlson, Adell et al)? With Pearson starting tonight aren’t we already past the service time cutoff? With expanded playoffs what gives?

Paul Sporer: Yeah today is the cut off for the extra year of service time so we’ll start seeing them as the players are needed

Paul Sporer: Guessing call ups in a normal season is damn near impossible so this weird ass season will be even tougher IMO so we just gotta wait and see

Kevin: Workman oddly dropped in my league. Drop Burdi or Daniel Hudson for him? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m keeping Burdi for sure. I could see dropping Hudson as I haven’t seen anything declaring him the locked in closer

Quarantino Martinez: How far is Morton slipping? People are saying tb starters aren’t stretched out, but I’m scared.

Paul Sporer: I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have some concern. Nearly 3 mph off the fastball for a 36-year old w/extensive injury history is a bit worrisome. Need more than 1 start to act on anything but I’m keeping a close eye on him

Quarantino Martinez: Al only: Morton and shed long for semien and bassitt?

Paul Sporer: Pretty fair deal. If you’re trying to get out from under Morton bc you’re worried, this is def a legit deal to do it

Kevin: What do you see out of Teoscar? Statcast loves him and he seems to be getting a good opportunity for PT this season. Take him over Kyle Tucker?

Paul Sporer: Dude rakes and has a little speed to his game as well. I still think his plate profile is such that he’ll be prone to slumps and a mediocre-at-best batting average, but if you want some big pop w/a touch of speed, he’s good for that. If Tucker was a full-timer, I’d take him easily, but since he’s not and Yordan Alvarez is working his way back, I’m inclined to lean Teoscar by a hair here

billyhaze: Hi everyone,

Paul Sporer: Billy Haze here for OxiClean!

Jacoby’s Ladder: How much stock you putting in Jacoby Jones?

Paul Sporer: A little as he can hit some and has regular playing time, but I’m not getting him in 10- or 12-team mixers

Kevin: With Wood on the DL, May’s spot in the rotation seems secure for the foreseeable future. Where does that development put him as far as SP rankings? Top 30 possible?

Paul Sporer: Top 30 would take a lot. Will the Dodgers do their normal innings management stuff or just let him go 5+ regularly? There’s definitely upside and he’s must-roster in all formats, but I can’t see top 30 just yet

hashtagoh: How long until Shohei is back to normal? Do you think it was just rust for the two-way stud?

Paul Sporer: It’s just one start and his first since ’18. It was BRUTAL, no two ways around it, but let’s see a few starts before we worry too much

Mike Hawk: You buying Merrill Kelly 켈리’s performance yesterday?

Paul Sporer: In terms of what? Elevating him up the rankings? No. It was a solid outing and he can be a reasonable streamer in deeper leagues, but I don’t see this outing as a springboard into all-formats viability

Slippin’ Jimmy: Better play ROS: Niko Goodrum or Shed Long ROS? OBP league

Paul Sporer: (Sorry for delay, my pizza was ready in the oven)

Paul Sporer: I don’t see the profiles as terribly different so gimme the guy with more eligibility – Goodrum

mokajige: Pearson up. Rumors that Spencer Howard was going to pitch on Friday. Hear anything about Gore or expectations as to when he might get called up?

Paul Sporer: I have not heard anything and they don’t really need to rush him up as their rotation was strong the first time through

Marky Mark: Keep two for 2020 redraft: Gore, Howard, Adell.

Paul Sporer: Gore/Adell

billyhaze: I hope this trend of SP’s not going more than 4 innings  comes to an end soon. I may have to get guys like Quantrill for the chance at a win, MR’s seem to be the ones to get wins

Paul Sporer: I’m going to have an article on the Quantrill types out soon as I, too, am a bit worried about this trend.

Ronny: 13 tm roto redraft. Is Musgrove a hold?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Dang Enter Button: Dynasty keep forever with no cost. Would you rather have Bregman or Wander plus Gore?

Paul Sporer: That’s a fair deal for Bregman, but I play for here and now so I lean Bregman here. Wander and Gore are elite prospects, but we’re probably at least a couple yrs from them being top flight contributors. They could succeed immediately and next year if when they’re both killing it, but I’m betting against that and riding out Bregman’s prime

Rodney: Khris Davis is looking so rough this year. But he was krushing it last spring before getting hurt. Is this the end? Or is a guy like him just going to run hot and cold and we all just have to accept it?

Paul Sporer: Still too early to freak out about guys with firmly established track records. Unless we hear something about his health, I’m betting on cold start and hanging with Davis.

Stop the Pressley: Hi Paul. Al only: how long should I hold Ryan Presley?

Paul Sporer: Do you not have IL slots?

Mike Hawk: Gotta trade one of the “next guy ups”…which guy goes Davis, Kim, Gott, Hudson or Leclerc?

Paul Sporer: Well Davis & Kim are the actual announced closers so I’m sticking w/them. I think Gott just because Kapler doesn’t usually lean on just one guy and while I’m not super keen on Leclerc, he is the guy and TEX is better than SF in my opinion

Tristan: Is Eric Lauer the Brewers’ #2 starter at the end of the year? Feels like there could be another level in there if MIL optimizes his usage.

Paul Sporer: I don’t really see that. What do you like about him? I Woody-Lindblom-Burnes will make a solid 1-3 soon

Jim: Hey Paul! It’s slim pickings for SP in my points dynasty league. One name that’s intrigued me is Justin Dunn. Do you have a favorable outlook on him?

Paul Sporer: I have a “let’s take a look at him in deeper leagues” outlook on him so I like that you’re taking a shot. A prospect with real upside, he might end up as a high leverage RP, but it makes total sense for SEA to see if he can stick as a solid mid-rotation starter first

Guest: Can Nick Burdi hold onto the closer role?

Paul Sporer: I absolutely think so – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-bold-predictions-for-2020/

ScottTINSTAAPP: Also Happy Nate Pearson Day! So jacked for Pearson/Scherzer tonight

Paul Sporer: Me too!

Diary of a Thin Man: Is Luke Voit too skinny?

Paul Sporer: I don’t… think…. so? Is that a legit concern about him right now?

Dave: Civale!

Paul Sporer: Really fun season debut!

Bueller: % chance Whitley gets the call?

Paul Sporer: At some point this year? 75%

Peter: Have to activate Moose. Pretty deep everywhere. Who should I drop? Pick one hitter and one pitcher…
Hitter: Andrew McCutchen, Kyle Lewis, Kyle Tucker, Austin Riley
Pitcher: Brady Singer, Spencer Howard.

Paul Sporer: Riley & Howard

Buffalo BlueJay: Stat line prediction tonight and ROS for Nate Pearson?

Paul Sporer: 5 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K … rest of season: 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, at least a K-per-inning

Holland: Please rank these OFs ROS: Kyle Lewis, Willie Calhoun, Randal Grichuk, Aaron Hicks.

Paul Sporer: Calhoun, Lewis, Hicks, Grichuk

Salty: Paul – appreciate the articles and the chats, helps boost the interest for however long the season lasts.  I hope Justin (and others) is wrong in the thought that the season would be in greater jeopardy if a more popular team was going through what the Marlins are.  If another team or two ends up in the same boat, can the season still be saved?

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome. Thanks for reading and coming to the chats. It’d be really tough if another team got merked like this

Paul Sporer: Why did Arenado throw home?!?!

Chris: Kyle Lewis is still awesome!!

Paul Sporer: Really digging him. I still think the AVG will be .250s on the high end, but I like his bat a lot

Mad Bum: I’m out here throwing 87, 88 on occasion. Thinking about dropping myself. Talk me out of it.

Paul Sporer: I mean, he’s never succeeded on velo so I’m not sure it matters that much

billyhaze: Shed Long on my bench in Main with 2 steals.

Paul Sporer: Is it just me or does leaving SBs on the bench sting most? More than HRs or SP gems for me, espec. when the SP gems are against tough teams because I was streaming the guy anyway

Ramie Shalabi: Is Sean Doolittle worth holding onto even if he isn’t closing? Non holds league, categories include IP, K, K/9, ERA, WHIP, SV, W.

Paul Sporer: If he’s not closing, no, definitely not. Has there been definitive word on the WAS situation?

Brad: Hi Paul, if the dealer is showing 10 in blackjack, do you hit on 16? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I’m the worst at blackjack so yes I do hit and promptly get a 10.

Ham Porter: Who are the top guys that have slumped out of the gates that you are concerned about?

Paul Sporer: None. I’m not concerned about star-level talent yet.

Bueller: Bryant for Chapman?  Yeah or nay?

Paul Sporer: It’s fine. Kinda samesies so just pick your favorite, I guess

Ham Porter: Which team has impressed you the most so far and why is it the Blue Jays?

Paul Sporer: Gotta be honest, it’s the Cubs for me. Their pen sucks as planned, but their starters have really stood out and their offense has covered that horrific pen. I think it’ll catch up to them, but it’s an impressive start

scott: are people sleeping on garrett richards?

Paul Sporer: No I think he got some late draft juice. I know Justin and I have been beating the drum for him and ranked relatively high. Talent isn’t the question at all. He has frontline stuff, but he needs to stay healthy

Jim Leyland Palmer: 10tm league 5×5, how patient should I be with Nick Anderson? Just had Gallegos activated

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you have to be all that patient. He’ll get some starts, but he was wildly overdrafted this year. I looove the talent, but we know TB just doesn’t really settle on one guy very often

Aceman: Ok with picking up Brady Singer deep 12tm points,Have Uriquidy, Verlander and Puk

Paul Sporer: Yes, for sure. I was picking him up this past weekend. Got him in a 12 and 15

Frankie: Are you watching the Montas start? Why so many hits?

Paul Sporer: I am. Because the ball is landing fairly in play and out of the reach of a fielder… lol, whattya talkin about? 5 H in 5 IP isn’t really an issue. It’s 5 1B

The Shooter: Do you see Anthony Bass as the closer in Toronto?  It seems like Jordan Romano is the arm to own there.

Paul Sporer: He’s been announced as such by manager Charlie Montoyo

Stop the Pressley: Haven’t put him on the IL.

Paul Sporer: Oh snap, that’s right. I’d just cut him with Osuna back

Nate: Can you find some magic pixie dust somewhere to help Josh James throws strikes more? Feel like that dude is a tweak away from becoming a monster

Paul Sporer: I think he will perpetually be, though. He’s just that kinda guy we fawn over what could be and then finally goes to relief

G Money: Tony Gonsolin, looks to be coming up to pitch on Friday. Should he be scooped up in a 16 team league and does he stick?

Paul Sporer: Too tough to say if he sticks, espec. if Kershaw is back soon. But yes, scoop him for the spot at ARI (solid team, but not terrified of them)

gg: If you look at Pomeranz stats once going to the Brewers he was basically Hader. While I doubt he gets many saves, he should still be an elite arm for 5×5…right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s a monster. Def a rosterable RP in some mixers if it makes sense for your roster construction. I also  think he’s next in line behind Yates if anything were to happen, ahead of Pagan

Chase: I know you love Civale, but does he get enough Ks to be drafted top 30 next year?

Paul Sporer: Showed strong Ks in the minors and opened the season with 9 and a 16% SwStr

billyhaze: Pearson goes 3 innings ,

Paul Sporer: Is that set? I missed it if so

Nolan Arenado: I was showing off

Paul Sporer: It was dumb

guest: What’s your opinion on Josh James?

Paul Sporer: Reliever

Mario: Any word on how the Buffalo stadium will play for hitters/pitchers?

Paul Sporer: I think I read it’s a hitter’s haven

billyhaze: Especially this season, Paul,  they are scarce  and two SB’s can make the difference in standings

Paul Sporer: Yes, SBs on the bench is even more painful this year

Dustin May: How much context do you need to determine whether or not you’d be starting me against the Astros?

Paul Sporer: I dunno, the league type, team count, and such… ya know, the basic info needed to give good answers on fantasy questions

Guest: Darnaud or Kiner-Falefa.  With Travis coming off the DL I have to choose who to keep.  14 team H2H

Paul Sporer: TdA

billyhaze: just a guess on Pearson.

Paul Sporer: Ah ok

James: I blew most of my faab money on hicks, gott, and rich hill (nfbc cutline). Am i a fool?

Paul Sporer: I like Hicks and Hill, not so much on Gott

Frankie: Just expressing frustration with all the dinks and dunks v Montas. Not calling him out or anything.

Paul Sporer: I hear ya

me: What the hell 8 games for Joe Kelly? Wtfffff

Paul Sporer: Finally an MLB suspension with some teeth. It’ll be a deterrent to other dipshits throwing at people. The Astros suck for cheating, but throwing baseballs at people doesn’t solve anything and it’s remarkably stupid. It’s so clearly premeditated, too. And while this is irrelevant to the suspension itself, wasn’t Joe Kelly on the BOS team accused of cheating v. the Dodgers? Is he gonna throw a baseball at himself?

Henry: You think Stanton gets bumped to Diamond on Friday

Paul Sporer: Strong chance

Kolby Cheese: Kolby Allard filling in for Kluber. AL only interest?

Paul Sporer: Ehh, that’s the only possible interest sight unseen

Guest: If Kelly gets 8 that is messed up…guess he should have cheated 😉

Paul Sporer: Yeah because those are the same thing

Karl: SV/HLD league how would you rank Burdi, Baez & Bummer?

Paul Sporer: Just like that

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’m streaming a boxscore review show Mon-Fri on Twitch in the early afternoon (12-1pm Central start time) and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there — https://twitch.tv/sporer — Have a good one, y’all!