Author: Paul Sporer | Page 138 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 16th, 2020

September 16, 2020

Transcript is below!

1:04	Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Let’s talk some baseball!

1:08

Travis: Would love to hear your thoughts about the difference between Corbin Burnes and say a Nick Pivetta. Both had homer issues, one of them solved it and the other didn’t. What were the differences between the two that you identified at the time? Did you expect this outcome? (Another one to consider is Luis Castillo’s 2018)

1:09	Paul Sporer: Burnes actually made alterations in an attempt to fix his HR issues whereas Pivetta just kept doing the same stuff. Burnes has completely revamped his arsenal to fuel these improvements this year

1:09	Greg: Bo Bichette a top 15 asset in dynasty?

1:09	Paul Sporer: Pretty close for sure

1:09	Larry: I thought I hit the jackpot with Dustin May this year. What’s your level of confidence that he can miss more bats?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 851 – Breakout Hitters

by Paul Sporer

September 15, 2020

09/15/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

Josh Bell on fire (.333/.414/.600, 5 HR in last 70 PA)
Dinelson Lamet insane again
Pablo Lopez rebounds (7 IP/1 ER, 6 K)
Will Smith quietly dominating (178 wRC+)

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Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #6

by Paul Sporer

September 11, 2020

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

C Daulton Varsho – 2% | Gary Sánchez – 81% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Varsho is finding more playing time in the outfield and starting to deliver some production. He has a .911 OPS in the last week with 2 HR, 5 RBI, and 6 R in 25 PA. His strikeout rate is at 29% on the year, but down to 16% in this last week while his walk rate is at 9% on the season and 12% last week. I’m particularly excited for Varsho in 2021 and expect to have him on many target lists.

Sanchez has become a staple here, but it’s because he has a comically high roster rate at this point in 1-catcher leagues. Another dreadful week for Sanchez (.067/.125/.267, 1 HR), but keep clinging to those projections for the final few weeks, I’m sure he’s about to start hitting them!

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 10th, 2020

by Paul Sporer

September 10, 2020

Transcript is below!

2:59	Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! Had to move to Thursday, but here we go!

2:59	Scotty: Logan Gilbert or Brendan McKay in a keeper league?

3:01	Paul Sporer: I’m going with McKay, but Gilbert is definitely to be fully aware of for the future

3:01	Greg: Small sample and fewer innings than most, but what’s your read on Plesac? Can he be a top 30 SP next year?

3:03	Paul Sporer: I buy into him a good bit bc of the pitch mix changes that have fostered his strikeout surge (drop in FB, surge in SL). I also really buy into CLE’s pitching development so that adds to my interest. I don’t know if he’ll make my top 30, but he won’t be too far out of it if he doesn’t

3:03	Kyle: What’s your analysis on Tristan McKenzie? Long term keeper or sell high?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 850 – 2020 SP Studs & Their 2021 Outlook

by Paul Sporer

September 10, 2020

09/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

Dealing studs & their 2021 outlook: Yu Darvish, Trevor Bauer, Corbin Burnes, Dinelson Lamet, Jesús Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Tyler Mahle, Dane Dunning, Deivi Garcia, Seth Lugo
Matthew Boyd pulled the rug out from under everyone
Adam Duvall goes triple yak AGAIN
Ryan Mountcastle has been electric since call-up

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #5

by Paul Sporer

September 4, 2020

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

C Yan Gomes – 4% | Gary Sánchez – 89% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Gomes is still in a timeshare with Kurt Suzuki, but he’s doing enough in his time to merit consideration. Over his last 50 plate appearances he’s hitting .362/.400/.617 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 8 R. He slots as a top 10 catcher over the last month (9th) and 15-day (6th) periods.

Sanchez was in this spot a week ago and has done nothing to change the outlook, hitting .100/.217/.250 in his last seven games. How is he still toting this high of a roster rate?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 849 – Cutting Star Players

by Paul Sporer

September 3, 2020

09/03/20

POST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE MISSING AUDIO FILE

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

Young Guns dealing: Sixto Sanchez, Triston McKenzie, Ian Anderson, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier [chart]
Getting to know Johan Oviedo: 95 mph, SL & CB, 12th on STL prospects
Zac Gallen great v. LAD
Which 3 HR hitter would you scoop? Adam Duvall or Alex Dickerson
Crusty 1B Crushing: Eric Hosmer v. Brandon Belt [chart]
Wil Myers to IL (undisclosed)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 2nd, 2020

by Paul Sporer

September 2, 2020

Transcript is now live!

1:33	Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

1:33	Rocco: Hey Paul- Kepler has cooled off….is this just a funk or he was playing over his head?

1:35	Paul Sporer: He’s been a zero against lefties and that’s where he made his gains last year. That said, he is handling righties so at worst you can platoon him and maybe consider a sit if a rush of lefties comes up

1:35	Rocco: Do you think Berrios and JDM can turn it around this year?

1:35	Paul Sporer: They certainly can, but time is running out.

1:35	TJ: Thanks for the chat! What do you think about Gallo? I didn’t expect him to hit .300, but seems like he’s dropped off and this isn’t the year to wait on guys. Permission to drop, sir? 12 team roto scoring this year.

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Fantasy Fallout from the Trade Deadline

by Paul Sporer

September 1, 2020

Let’s take a look at the fantasy implications for all the major trades this deadline.

To OAK: Tommy La Stella

To LAA: Franklin Barreto

Up: La Stella joins a much better lineup and should slot into the #2 hole in between Marcus Semien and Stephen Piscotty. He could lose some starts against lefties, but that might be a net positive given his .185/.303/.259 line against them this year. That said, he was at .265/.315/.398 a year ago and has a career .262/.340/.373 line v. southpaws. Either way, this is still a win.

Down: none

Neutral: Barreto goes from not playing in one part of California to not playing in a further south part of California as David Fletcher just slots into the 2B role with Andrelton Simmons and Anthony Rendon back in the lineup.

—

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 848 – Trade Deadline Fallout

by Paul Sporer

September 1, 2020

09/01/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter