Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 2nd, 2020

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

Rocco: Hey Paul- Kepler has cooled off….is this just a funk or he was playing over his head?

Paul Sporer: He’s been a zero against lefties and that’s where he made his gains last year. That said, he is handling righties so at worst you can platoon him and maybe consider a sit if a rush of lefties comes up

Rocco: Do you think Berrios and JDM can turn it around this year?

Paul Sporer: They certainly can, but time is running out.

TJ: Thanks for the chat!  What do you think about Gallo?  I didn’t expect him to hit .300, but seems like he’s dropped off and this isn’t the year to wait on guys.  Permission to drop, sir?  12 team roto scoring this year.

Paul Sporer: His gains in AVG were a bit suspect as he needed a .500 BABIP against lefties to do it so I’m not too surprised he’s fallen back down there. Who are you picking up? I could see some power guys on the wire being worth making the move

Steve: Is Isaac Paredes anything in fantasy?

Paul Sporer: One of those glue guys with a little pop and a few bags that works best in an AL only or deep mixer

Biggy: Is Robert a sure bet to regress, or is he another Javy Baez type?

Paul Sporer: Are those things different? Hasn’t Baez regressed? I’m talking more about ’18 v. ’19 as opposed to his ’20 since it’s such a small sample. Over the course of 6-month seasons, Robert will have cold streaks fueled by the big swing & miss. He may avoid that fate in a 2-month sprint

Frank: Who’s the better pickup long term at 3B? Longoria or Brad Miller?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Miller guy

Rocco: When will Lindor get going??

Paul Sporer: He hasn’t been that far off his ’19. He’s basically a hot streak from being back on track

Al Gone Quinn: New ranking of SP’s coming soon?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I know I said I’d have em last week, but time was crunched

MarioMendoza: Is Bryan Reynolds still a thing? He was hot shit to start the season, no on wire in my dynasty

Paul Sporer: Can’t put it all on the .262 BABIP as his K rate has soared to 31%. It seems he’s going for power with his flyball and pull rates up, but it’s not really working. Easy cut for now in mixers and we can reassess for ’21

Biggy: Who is most likely to bounce back in 2021:  JDM, KB, or Pete Alonso?  What order?

Paul Sporer: The order you’ve listed

John: I’ve got Skubal in 12 team roto and encouraged he went 5 this last time out – he’s probably my most droppable SP, but is he a hold due to pedigree and K/9?

Paul Sporer: It depends who you’re picking up, but he’s definitely not a must hold. He’s definitely a streamer

Loop: Paul, I know some regression is expected, but can you seem Framber Valdez as a top 30 pitcher moving forward? Thanks for the chat!

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely close. I really like him and my favorite part is that they let him pitch. He has 7+ IP in four of his last five.

Henry: All things equal, do you see Rich hill or pineda being a more useful fantasy asset down the stretch? after last nights start, im leaning pineda but the second you drop hill, he always reels off a bunch of qs

Paul Sporer: I lean Pineda, too, and understand your fears about Hill. They’re not terribly different when you really break it down, so just go with your lean

Deivi Cruz (I mean Garcia): Do you prefer me or Dunning on Friday (points league)? Thanks, enjoyed the deadline stream with Nick!

Paul Sporer: I’ll go with Dunning based on matchup (he gets KC while Cru–er–Garcia gets Baltimore)

Lorenzo: Adam Wainwright.  Impressive so far to say the least. I had to pick him up.  Is he just getting lucky with a very low BABIP?

Paul Sporer: Things are definitely going his way, but that’s because he’s pitching well. Watching a couple of his starts, he’s not just skating by. The BABIP is definitely fortunate, but not just blind luck

Henry: wtf sonny gray

Paul Sporer: An absolute killer. I have him in the Main and I was steamed. Thankfully we had Framber, Plesac, and Alex Young to absorb the start. Of course I’d rather not use those great starts as a sponge for a nightmare outing, but shit happens.

Guest: Eflin vs. the Nationals or Dobnak vs. the Tigers?   Do either hold season long appeal or just stream?

Paul Sporer: I think both are team streamers (guys you move from starting to reserve as opposed to back on the wire) in 10s and 12s. I’ll take Eflin here.

MarioMendoza: I’m starting to put perhaps too much faith in statcast xWOBA. what else do you look at when looking for wire pickups?

Paul Sporer: Ks & BBs, playing time, schedules

Guest: Kyle Tucker doing the damn thing? He fulfilling his 30-30 pace potential this year?

Paul Sporer: He’s been awesome and the best part is he’s raking against lefties! One of those where you had to bet on the talent and let the playing time work itself out.

Biggy: How much stock are you putting in the stats from this year?  LIke, I love having Cronenworth on your rec, but is he really a keeper candidate, a top 80 type of guy?  Or are we overreacting to small samples for the entire season of 2020?\

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely being cautious about how much stock goes into this year’s stats, but I really like Cronenworth’s profile and I don’t think it’s a fluke that he can hit. Top 80 might be a bit high, but I’m a big fan

Henry: best guess as to bertis playing time going forward with diaz back? SB are tough to come by but if hes playing some, think hes worth a roster spot?

Paul Sporer: What kinda league format? I think his PT is definitely in trouble with Isan Diaz returning and Jazz Chisholm getting called up

Tim: Time to give up on Luke Weaver? Mahle, Eflin and Pineda are available on the wire.

Paul Sporer: yes, I’d take any of the three for him

Guest: ROS- Berti or Semien at SS?

Paul Sporer: C’mon… it’s still Semien

Jake: Time to drop Chad Kuhl in 12 teamer? How do you feel about matchup with Reds on Sunday?

Paul Sporer: You can, he’s hardly a must-hold in 12s. I’m still starting him v. CIN in the leagues where I have him, but if it’s another modest outing, I’m likely moving on in 10s and 12s

Guest: Kyle Lewis seems to have traded a bit of power for more contact. Will he continue that trend, or just a young hitter finding his way that will end up as a 30-homer, .275 average guy in a full season?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s sometimes forgotten that he was a mega prospect prior to getting hurt in the minors and curbing his prospect hype. This dude is a legit stud, I’ve loved watching him this year

Jake: Trade deadline in my redraft league was 12 pm today… I was offered Elieser for Danny Duffy and I declined… did I make the right move?

Paul Sporer: I’d have probably taken the deal, but they aren’t different enough to fret over it

MarioMendoza: Kendrick or Segura ROS? Segura wins tie breaker since it’s a keeper league

Paul Sporer: I prefer Kendrick

Joboo’s Rum: Love the chats! 12 team 5×5.  I’m getting impatient on guys like J.D. Martinez, Arenado, Sanchez, etc.  Is it time to start benching for a hot hand until they get on a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: No chance I’m benching JD or Arenado, but I’m down to find another C over Sanchez right now. His 6 HR aren’t worth the .124 AVG

Guest: starting Morton tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would

Biggy: What’s going on with Luis Castillo?  Does this affect your long term value for him?\

Paul Sporer: He’s been fine. A couple bumpy starts runs-wise, but he still has his Ks and the 3.04 FIP is still great. I’m unmoved by any perceived struggles. Still a stud, IMO

Jerry Seinfeld: What’s the DEAL with Jake Cronenworth? I mean he’s RAKING and he’s WORTH a top-30 pick in next year’s draft, am I RIGHT???

Paul Sporer: LOL, well done Jerry. Not top 30, but a stud – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rake-cronenworths-star-turn/

thebearproofsuit: Kyle Lewis = Adam Jones + walks?

Paul Sporer: Not a terrible comp

Matt: My expected reliance on Montas imploded. Can I still continue to count on Bundy, it is that going to collapse too?

Paul Sporer: Maybe if he gets hurt like Montas. I think Montas’ back is driving all of these struggles. I believe in Bundy

phil: Just traded Mondesi for Schwarber, I’m second in steals, 7th in  HR. Got that 2HR game out of Schwarber already. Too early to be doing victory laps?

Paul Sporer: LOL, nah you’re happy about your move.

sam: was offered Solak & Gallo for JDM, it’s a points league where K’s are penalized and total bases are really elevated. Projections still have JDM being on par with someone like Vladito, with the other two being only a little above replacement. Do I bite?

Paul Sporer: No, I wouldn’t. I love Solak, but I don’t think Gallo is a good fit in this league and I still believe in JDM

Al Gone Quinn: Framber was unranked (out of 137) in pre-season SP rankings.

Paul Sporer: Yep, I forgot him

Jake: Re: Sonny Gray—– his xERA was 3.79 going into last night… he was bound to regress

Paul Sporer: Eh, that doesn’t explain a meltdown like that, that’s not how regression works. He had a 1.94 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 2.96 xFIP going into last night per our site. Nothing about suggests he was going to get absolutely trounced

Paul Sporer: Please don’t repeat questions, y’all. I’m working through the queue as quickly as I can!

Guest: How much value do you place on “expected schedule ROS” for fringe starters? Should I be hoarding the guys I ‘think’ I am gonna stream later?

Paul Sporer: I’m not planning more than a couple days ahead in this crazy season, just not enough value in it given how fluid things are

Quadrangular: Happ and Winker: are they taking “the step” or are they just running hot?

Paul Sporer: I believe in both, especially Happ. Winker’s .556 BABIP against lefties won’t last, but at the very least he’ll continue to crush righties

thebearproofsuit: Edwin Diaz at the halfway mark….20k/9….2 Svs.  which number is the bigger surprise?

Paul Sporer: The saves.

Kerry: What do you make of Robinson Cano’s return to a Hall of Fame pace?

Paul Sporer: 2019 is the clear, the dude is just a brilliant hitter and when healthy, he should be expected to contribute

Paul Sporer: clear outlier* that should say

Don Juan: Is Montas broken?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think his back is the reason for these issues, it seems he needs an IL stint

Conundrum: If you could only keep one, Civale or Plesac?

Paul Sporer: Civale, but why would you only be able to keep one? Surely there’s a better cut

Estevão: Do you play OOTP?

Paul Sporer: I do, I love Perfect Team

Conundrum: Hiura’s strikeout rate is obscene.

Paul Sporer: Right in line with last year’s, I was surprised how overlooked his poor plate profile was during draft season. I understand the power-speed appeal, but it seemed pretty easy to see his AVG coming down a good bit

Estevão: In one of my saves the Orioles in the mid 200’s won over 110 games on the back to back years and got swept in the ALDS both times. Baseball is awesome

Paul Sporer: OOTP can be SO crushing!!

Ketel Marte: Should I be in starting lineups?  Should I be benched or even dropped already?

Paul Sporer: He’s certainly not playing to his ’19 level, but he’s still worth playing IMO

Armadillofury: What’s up with Moncada? Hasn’t played for three games but no IL?

Paul Sporer: They think it’s just gonna be a couple more days and don’t want to put him on the IL

RMR: How high do you think guys like Gallen and Civale, really good pitchers without premium velocity / stuff, can get on future SP ranking lists?  Can they get into that elite tier without that next level stuff that some other guys have?

Paul Sporer: Have you watched them? They don’t have insane velo, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have premium stuff. I absolutely think both can be top 25 SPs

Sean: would you rather have Hader or Colome ROS?

Paul Sporer: Still Hader for sure

Mike Hawk: You were really serious when you said no Kiriloff this year…wow..next year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah despite their offense not playing to expectations, there still isn’t really a spot for him. I do think he’ll play next year for sure.

Conundrum: I traded Civale for Plesac, regretting it.

Paul Sporer: I do prefer Civale, but they aren’t far enough apart to bug out

Estevão: How big is the gap in terms of intelligence from GM to GM. Andrew Friedman seems to be on another level, in multiple times acquiring younger cheaper value on deals with teams with limited budgets

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely not as big as we perceive when roasting GMs we disagree with, but there are definitely gaps in front office abilities. It’s not just the ONE guy, though, it’s really more about the front office teams they put together

Dave: Do you think Alex Dickerson is worth a pickup at least for daily utility spot on an points league?

Paul Sporer: Career .268/.339/.495 vR, but let’s not overdo it based on one amazing game

Harry: What do you think of Urquidy ROS?

Paul Sporer: Wait, is he coming back yet? I love him, but we need to get him back on the field.

Quadrangular: back in on Boyd?

Paul Sporer: Certainly worth a pickup after back to back gems

Quadrangular: follow up re: Boyd: were you ever not in? really wishing that guy would get it all together, throw the change more

Paul Sporer: No, I definitely saw him as a drop after the 2nd 7 ER dud in a row, but the 9 K v. CWS started to bring me back on board

Estevão: Reading that question made me feel like a jerk. Like who am I to question ppl doing this for a living. I definitely agree with what you said although I’ll never understand the Grandal-Kemp trade

Paul Sporer: No, no, it was an OK question to ask. These guys aren’t above critique, but we need to understand that we deal with incomplete information when assessing the moves

Guest: How much emphasis do you put on K/BB% or SIERA when considering an add? Wacha, Lindblom on my waiver wire, metrics look good, but results haven’t been there. Likewise I’m holding on Boyd and Weaver hoping for positive regression (might be there already with Boyd). Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Quite a bit, especially the former. Ks and BBs are the fundamental elements for pitchers and hitters and that’s the first place I look

Mister. Jimmy: Any chance that Puig gets signed in the next couple of week?  Should I drop him from my team’s small & restrictive reserve list?

Paul Sporer: I’d drop

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure why he didn’t get a single bite all year

Paul Sporer: Well outside of Atlanta

Moar Boyd: another follow up re: Boyd – knowing that fantasy playoffs are coming up would you gamble on him over Mahle, Duffy, Dunning etc…

Paul Sporer: I prefer Mahle over Boyd, the others are close and would be schedule-dependent

Al Gone Quinn: I want to play in a 12 team league where Gallo gets dropped. Imagining consecutive championships for years.

Paul Sporer: He’s the 62nd OF in my pts league, but ya, pretend like it’s some CRAZY move just because he’s a big name

You Must WHIP It: Follow up on the K/BB thing: some SPs (thinking Nolasco) underperform those peripherals all the time. Should I be looking at any other metrics to sniff out that sort of thing?

Paul Sporer: There’s no single metric that covers everything. You should always been looking at the whole picture. Nolasco didn’t walk anybody because he gave up hits to everyone

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!