Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 843 – Players We’re Wrong on So Far

08/20/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – August 19th, 2020

Transcript is below!!

3:34

Paul Sporer: What’s up everyone? Hope y’all are having a good day, let’s talk some baseball!

3:34

Big Tuna: Do you like Means or are cutting him because he’s not built up?

3:35

Paul Sporer: Love the arsenal improvements, but that division is a bear so I can really only see him as a streamer in most formats

3:35

Big Tuna: Buying into Lindblom in 12 tms?

3:37

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s at least a bench streamer (meaning I’m not cutting him after using him, but also not starting him regardless). The Ks are nice and I think he’ll start to settle in and could play his way into all-formats viability

3:37

Guest: 5×5 roto 10 team please pick 2: Pollock, Tucker, Verdugo, Happ, Tauchman, Carlson. Thanks!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 842 – Prospects Are Coming!

08/18/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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The Next Crop of Elite Relievers

Relievers have 47% of the wins so far this season. This is a figure that has been on the rise for a while, but this still represents a massive jump. It was at 40% a year ago and never above 40% prior to that (38%, 33%, 33%, and 31% the four years before 2019). Obviously, the wild 60-game COVID-fueled season is a driving force behind this starter/reliever win split, but we know that pitcher usage has been changing the last couple years in normal seasons so we might’ve seen another jump in RP wins even if we had played a standard 162.

Even before this rise in the share of wins, premium non-closing relievers have been viable in many league types as a ratios and strikeout source with the occasional save or win thrown in with the idea that 2-5 elite IP was a better bet than streaming a 4th-5th starter type hoping to snag a win and not hurt your ratios too much. The 2010s have seen a strong surge in these types of relievers and today I want to highlight a group of them you can consider this year.

The idea is to jump on the next Dellin Betances, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo instead of paying full price for those guys once they’re known (see also: Anderson, Nick). Freddy Peralta is too well-known for this exercise, just to avoid anyone putting him in the comments. He’s on 86% of the Rotowire Online Championship NFBC teams which are 12-team leagues.

James Karinchak | CLE – 11.3 IP, 0.79 ERA & WHIP, 52% K, 0 W, 1 SV

He’s probably the most known of this group especially when Brad Hand had back-to-back bumpy outings in late-July and Karinchak started to get picked up as the heir apparent. Hand has settled a bit and Karinchak is windup up back on waiver wires. He’s their key fireman and will likely get the role if Hand does falter so I’d consider scooping him in leagues where middle relievers are viable and he’s available. He has strikeouts in all 10 of his outings, including more than one in four straight (3, 4, 2, and 3).

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Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #3

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Here are the picks for volume 3:

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

I’m still trying to come to terms with the fact that the Orioles offense is 2nd in wRC+, but in the meantime I’m considering Severino a pickup. He had a mini breakthrough last year with 13 HR and 3 SB in 341 PA with his best work coming against lefties (.273 AVG, 8 HR, 109 wRC+) and he’s amped it up a level this year. Strong work against righties is driving his fast start as he’s hitting .350 with 2 of his 4 HR against them in 40 PA.

I bought in on Garver’s 2019 breakout. Obviously, I didn’t think he’d hit 31 HR per 359 PA, but I saw him remaining a stud hitter as part of that excellent lineup. Instead, he’s off to a nightmarish start with a .167/.280/.238 line that includes just 1 HR and 2 RBI. I’m not completely out on him and of course I’d rather not cut him, but it’s hard to hold a dead weight catcher in 1-C leagues when many viable options sit on the wire. Garver is striking out more, but his swinging strike rate isn’t up much (1 pt to 9%) and his chase rate is actually down 7 points to 13%. He’s swinging and missing more in the zone which is fueling his 36% K rate.

Again, these cut candidates aren’t really “must cuts”, but rather guys who could be let go if you’re offense is really struggling, and you need to cut some of the dead weight.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 841 – Struggling Mid-Round Hitters

08/13/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 12th, 2020

Transcript is available below!

1:13

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyon, thank you for coming out!!

1:13

Doug: You would definitely trade Kyle Lewis for Xander Bogaerts in fantasy, right?

1:13

Paul Sporer: 10000000000%

1:13

snid: Hansel Robles getting that velocity back? Worth a pickup in a 12 tm dynasty.

1:16

Paul Sporer: Ehhhh, maybe if you’re DESPERATE for saves, but I’m not trying to get into that situation right now

1:16

Jake: Gausman for real???  How do you see Votto doing ROS ??

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 840 – Rising Hitters ft. Ellen Adair

08/11/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #2

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Here are the picks for volume 2:

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

  • C Max Stassi – 23% | Will Smith – 78% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Stassi is looking like this year’s iteration of Christian Vázquez or Robert Pérez with 4 HR in 25 PA already. There was some prospect heat on Stassi many moons ago for the 29-year old. He’s now in a platoon with Jason Castro, though it’s starting to shape up as a 50/50 as opposed to being pitcher hand-based. This rate of power will obviously slow down, but it’s earning him some extra playing time and makes him worth a look if you need a catcher. Also consider Austin Nola (5%) as he’s now catcher-eligible and the starter in Seattle with Tom Murphy nursing a foot injury.

Smith had an excellent start to his MLB career last year with a 1.072 OPS through 37 games with 13 HR in 129 PA. He closed on a down note with a .582 OPS in September and those struggles have joined him in 2020 thus far with a .182/.345/.364 line and 1 HR in 29 PA this year. This was originally slated to be more of a 70/30 split, but it’s trending at a 55/45 right now with Austin Barnes starting six games to Smith’s seven.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 839 – Unending Closer Chaos

08/06/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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