The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 861 – Early 1B Preview

10/29/20

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

2021 1B Preview

Superstars

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Approximately 100 minutes of joyous analysis.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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thebearproofsuit
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thebearproofsuit

Dude, Justin…first it was saying K.Lewis needs to be moved out of center ASAP, which was excusable since that was a narrative as recently as this spring…..but then you top it today with “Evan White’s defense was not very good”. ..

The dude is going to win the Gold Glove in his rookie year….

His defense was jaw-droppingly good. Not sure if there were some metrics that you looking at that don’t tell that story….but, frankly they are wrong.

Maybe you correct yourself later in the podcast but I had to stop on that sentence and go off on this little rant lol

It’s funny because you always seem %100 spot on everything else, just.a blind spot for a certain PNW’s team defense. It’s more humorous than anything else at this point.

Paul, …make your guy watch Ichiro’s throw on loop as penance.

thebearproofsuit
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Member
thebearproofsuit

just to make sure I wasn’t crazy, hadda google….first hit:

“He led American League first basemen in defensive runs saved (DRS) with seven, ranking ahead of Olson, the White Sox’s José Abreu and Cleveland’s Carlos Santana, who all had five.

White also led AL first basemen with seven “scoops” — a metric that measures outs saved from wayward throws — ahead of Santana (six).

He led AL first basemen with 11 out-of-zone plays, ranking ahead of Olson (10) and Gurriel (10).

According to FanGraphs, his 2.2 UZR was second best among AL first basemen, trailing only Olson (2.5). All three finalists had .998 fielding percentages that were decided by percentage points.

They all committed just one error. White ended the season with 49 consecutive games without an error, successfully converting each of his 363 total chances (333 putouts, 30 assists) over that span.

According to Baseball Savant, he tied for the most runs prevented (two) among AL first basemen with Abreu and Olson, while ranking tied for second in outs above average with two, one behind Olson.”

ok…yeah the stats match the eye test, not crazy.

oh, and if I remember right, his one error was on a play in which he almost created another extra out on an amazing pickoff play where the ball just got knocked out on contact. Even the errors we impressive. I mean..his one error.

https://www.union-bulletin.com/sports/ms-1b-white-ss-crawford-named-al-gold-glove-finalists/article_db8ce766-4e50-577c-bd99-6a6d9d920b3c.html

digiderek
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digiderek

Glad to see that I’m not the only one who thought Justin’s comments about them (especially White) were ridiculous.

Justin Mason
Editor
Member

I’ll take my L on this and retract it next episode. I don’t know how I misread the defensive stats that badly.

thebearproofsuit
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Member
thebearproofsuit

to be fair, on first glance the FanGraphs page make it look like he’s been negative defensively due to the positional adjustment on defense War, and i was confused as well…. it’s very counter intuitive to see a -1.6 defensive war and see ‘Gold Glover!’ Zero Defensive war would be amazing for a first baseman…..wonder if it would make sense to add in another defensive metric to the base stat line that on first glance is more indicative to how well they have played their position than DefWAR. Seeing a negative number and thinking positive is never going to work in my head.

Joser
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Joser

I can’t say I’ve had that problem, but then I look at wRC+ on the offensive side and ignore the defensive WAR stuff altogether because I don’t consider it particularly reliable, especially with players who don’t have a lot of years of stats. When I’m thinking about defense I always go look at the fielding tab and see what DRS and UZR say (surprisingly often they are at odds with one another, another reason I don’t put much stock in the top-line defensive WAR numbers). I’m not sure what quantity of defensive chances I’d personally consider reliable (I know there have been some attempts to quantify it more rigorously), but it’s got to be in the 400 game range. When a player is new to the league, like White is, I don’t put any stock in the defensive numbers at all. Even in a normal season, much less whatever you want to call the one we just had.

Not that any of this matters for fantasy. (I guess there are leagues that use defensive numbers, but I’ve never seen it.)

BTW, somebody is going around downvoting everything, but I upvoted your comment FWIW.