Author Archive

3 Second Half Starter Turnarounds

We are only a month into the “second half” but we are already seeing some pitchers turn their season around. I put it in quotes because it’s obviously not a pure 81/81 game split, but rather the halves are determined by the All-Star break. I’m sure some players use the time off to dig into their numbers and come up with a gameplan to improve while others likely just relax and enjoy the breather. These three arms have been markedly better since July and I wanted to investigate what changed to bring about these turnarounds.

Marco Gonzales, SEA

1H: 5.88 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 56.7 IP | 2H: 1.67 ERA/0.90 WHIP in 32.3 IP

While few fully believed Gonzales’s 2020 (3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP) since it was just two months, he was still drafted for useful ratios over a good number of innings. At no point in the first half was his ERA below 5.00 and his 2.4 HR/9 was seeing him hit more waiver wires with each passing week. He opened the second half with a trip to Colorado which was sure to be a disaster given how his season was going to that point… so of course he put up a 5 IP/2 ER outing, notching his second win of the year.

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Who Are These Guys?

As we push through the dog days of the summer, the backend teams of the league are churning through their reinforcements, and it is not uncommon to come across someone you just don’t know that well. You might’ve forgotten about them if they were once notable, or they may be deep on prospects lists (if they are listed at all) and you are just wholly unfamiliar with them. Let’s take a closer look at 10 such hitters and see if there might be some fantasy value to uncover.

Jorge Mateo | BAL, OF – 71 wRC+, 2 HR, 8 SB in 129 PA

Mateo might fall under the Yankee Prospect Hype Machine wherein a prospect gets a bit more juice than they deserve simply by being in the Yankees org. He was traded over to Oakland in the Sonny Gray deal where he continued to generate interest but failed to get a chance (even with a rabbit ball-fueled 19 HR season at AAA in 2019). He was traded to a worse situation when the A’s flipped him to San Diego, though he finally debuted in 2020 with a meager 20 wRC+ in 22 PA. A 57 wRC+ in another 57 PA was all San Diego needed before he was selected off waiver by Baltimore.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 968 – Is Ohtani Worth Starting at SP?

8/13/21

THIS IS THE FRIDAY EPISODE – PAUL & JUSTIN WILL BE BACK ON TUESDAY

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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10 Watchlist Guys: Vol. 14

Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

The Watchlist returns after a couple weeks off!

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

LaMonte Wade Jr | OF/1B, SFG

How is he rostered in just 15% of ESPN leagues?? Since becoming a regular with the Giants (May 28th), he is 36th in wRC+ with a 134 mark with 15 HR (t-7th most), 38 RBI, 33 R, and 3 SB in 213 PA. He is consistently leading off for a strong Giants lineup, has dual-eligibility, and should be on many rosters than he is currently. The return of Brandon Belt hasn’t impacted his playing time as he has shifted back into the outfield and become the primary RF.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 11th, 2021

Transcript is live!

1:14

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

1:14

Dave: Too soon predictions (especially considering today’s IL move) for where Rodon and Ray will open next year in your SP rankings?

1:14

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I really need to final 2 months for both to have a good feel of where I’m at. Rodon had to get some time off so this IL stint makes sense, epsec. when they have a ready made stud to fill in with Kopech.

1:14

Dave: I know you’re usually not into guys returning from TJ (at least immediately), but what are your ROS expectations for Sale? The reports from his rehab starts have been glowing…

1:16

Paul Sporer: I primarily eschew drafting them, but once back I start to give them more attention. Sale has no doubt looked sharp in his rehab outings. Usually my issue w/TJ returners for fantasy is that they will almost certainly hit a wall in a couple starts out of nowhere so the duds can outweigh the 2-3 gems and really hurt their numbers. Sale certainly looks ready to roll, though, and if you have him, you should be starting him once back

1:16

Martin: Keeper league question: Is one year of 26 yr old Bieber better than three of 30 yr old Gausman? 16 tm h2h 6×6 league with quality starts instead of wins. Other three keepers (you can keep four) are all hitters. No cost associated with either.

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5 AAA Starters Who Could Be Up Soon

We are entering the dog days of the season and this season is of course particularly unique because we’re coming off the pandemic year. The dog days could hit harder than normal and have teams pushing hard for reinforcements to ensure their major league arms can get to the finish line of the regular season and beyond if they are contenders. Here are five guys who be called up (or back up) to make a late-season impact.

Joe Ryan | MIN – 35% K, 5% BB, 3.63 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 57 IP

Ryan was in the Nelson Cruz deal and though the Twins are toast for the year, they should still consider giving the 25-year-old righty a look soon. Brilliant command of his fastball has fueled elite K%-BB% all the way up the minor league ladder along with being a bit old for each level, too. He fared pretty well for Team USA in the Olympics, too, with 10 K and 1 BB in 4.7 IP. It’s time to see if this heater is going to find MLB success and if they turn him loose, he could be a nice SP pickup in a lot of formats.

Aaron Ashby | MIL – 36% K, 12% BB, 4.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 62.3 IP

Ashby made his debut earlier this year and it didn’t go well, allowing seven runs (four earned) on four hits and three walks while getting just two outs. He struggled in his first two outings back in Triple-A after the debut, but then settled down with a 2.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 38 K, and 6 BB in 21.7 IP. He is actually back today (Tuesday, August 10th) for the doubleheader against the Cubs and could be a key piece to helping Milwaukee rest the three aces down the stretch. This is a volatile profile, but the huge strikeout ability gives him some real upside.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 967 – Multiple Star Injury Returns This Week

8/9/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

  • Join our Patreon
  • Game of the Week Watch Party: Thursday, August 12th at noon CT – OAK (Bassitt) at CLE (Morgan)

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 965 – Washington Young Infielders Rising

8/6/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 4th, 2021

Transcript is available!

1:31

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Thanks for coming out!

1:31

JC: LOL @ the mookie collection requirements.

1:31

Paul Sporer: An elite card being tough to get? Wow… what an idea lol

1:32

Paul Sporer: The complaints about it are MUCH funnier, tbh. With all due respect, y’all are being whack.

1:32

CT: Hey Paul, appreciate the chat. Hold or Fold in 12tm roto: Conforto & Gonsolin respectively

1:33

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely open to cutting both depending on who you’re picking up. Gonso is easiest to cut but I can definitely get behind moving on from Conforto in a 12-teamer

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4 Playing Time Pickups After the Deadline

The super active Trade Deadline definitely created some new opportunities for players who could soon become fantasy worthy players depending on league size. Obviously the opportunities often come on the worst teams so they aren’t exactly elite level players joining quality lineups, but we all know that volume alone can drive a player’s usefulness for us in the fantasy realm.

I just did a piece like this where I guessed who might get the chances based on potential trades and exactly one of the players I mentioned was traded, but I partly blame that on Colorado and Detroit being run horribly. But I’m not sure why Arizona didn’t trade David Peralta or Kole Calhoun.

Rafael Ortega | OF, CHC

Ortega was already making noise before the 3-HR game with a .345/.387/.517 line in 31 PA in the last week or so of July with seven starts in nine games, all of which saw him leading off. Then on August 1st he had the huge 3-home run game that put him on everyone’s radar. He was scooped up across most 15-team leagues but remains widely available in the 10- and 12-team landscape. There could enough here to pick him up.

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