3 Second Half Starter Turnarounds

We are only a month into the “second half” but we are already seeing some pitchers turn their season around. I put it in quotes because it’s obviously not a pure 81/81 game split, but rather the halves are determined by the All-Star break. I’m sure some players use the time off to dig into their numbers and come up with a gameplan to improve while others likely just relax and enjoy the breather. These three arms have been markedly better since July and I wanted to investigate what changed to bring about these turnarounds.

Marco Gonzales, SEA

1H: 5.88 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 56.7 IP | 2H: 1.67 ERA/0.90 WHIP in 32.3 IP

While few fully believed Gonzales’s 2020 (3.10 ERA/0.95 WHIP) since it was just two months, he was still drafted for useful ratios over a good number of innings. At no point in the first half was his ERA below 5.00 and his 2.4 HR/9 was seeing him hit more waiver wires with each passing week. He opened the second half with a trip to Colorado which was sure to be a disaster given how his season was going to that point… so of course he put up a 5 IP/2 ER outing, notching his second win of the year.

What changed: Mostly regression. His BABIP is down 85 points to .209 and the home run rate has plummeted to 0.83 (down from 2.4) and he hasn’t allowed more than one in any of his five starts after doing so five times in the first half. There haven’t been any massive arsenal changes with the only real change being a dip in curveballs in favor of more sinkers.

Those sinkers are being thrown up in the zone more often, particularly against righties (+15 pts to 62%), and the improvements have been massive. Righties had a 1.438 OPS and 6 HR in 54 PA against the sinker in the first half and it’s down to .452 with just 1 HR in 41 PA since the break. The first half was him at his absolute worst and start to the second half is definitely him at his best.

Going forward, we should expect something closer to a high-3.00s ERA with a solid WHIP (sub-1.25) especially as the schedule sets up favorably. Based on the current rotation, he is slated to miss both remaining series against Houston as well as the Boston one in mid-September.

Max Fried, ATL

1H: 4.71 ERA/1.39 WHIP in 72.7 IP | 2H: 1.95 ERA/1.08 WHIP in 37 IP

Fried had an up-and-down first half. He opened with an 11.45 ERA in just three April starts (he hit the IL after mega duds in the second and third starts) and then returned three weeks later to post a 1.50 ERA in four May starts. He remained solid through June (3.58 ERA) but then another couple duds in July saddled him with a near-5.00 ERA and an ugly WHIP heading into All-Star weekend. He has thrown gems in five of his six starts since then, posting a 28% K rate and just 6% BB rate.

What changed: Fastball command against righties. While I am trying to highlight a substantial change for each of these guys, I want to be clear that it is rarely one smoking gun that spurs improvement. In the first half, righties torched his heaters with a .924 OPS and 2% K-BB rate in 134 PA. The .343 BABIP was high, but not so egregious that it explains away the trouble. He has worked his fastballs more on the outer third since the break and it has helped fuel a .572 OPS and 12% K-BB rate in 58 PA against his heaters.

He might even consider dumping the sinker altogether. He doesn’t use it a ton as is and the four-seamer has been driving the success in the second half. It allowed a .926 OPS and 3% K-BB rate in 111 PA, but it’s been excellent since then with a .604 OPS and 19% K-BB rate in 37 PA.

Fried’s statistical turnaround started before the first half was over, but the fastball transformation is decidedly a second half change. He has been a must-start all year and will remain so the rest of this season. It’s not unreasonable to link his April woes to the strained hamstring and he has been good since returning from the IL, but the skills really jumped after the break and he has pitched like the stud he was viewed as at the draft table.

Jameson Taillon, NYY

1H (Apr-Jun): 5.43 ERA/1.36 WHIP in 69.7 IP | 2H (Jul-Aug): 1.68 ERA/1.01 WHIP in 48.3 IP

I used a slightly different split for Taillon because his changes started to take hold just before the break.

Taillon had a maddeningly uneven first half where he couldn’t string together more than two good starts in a row. Any time it looked like he was turning a corner, he would drop another sub-45 Game Score on our heads. His 24% K rate salvaged a modicum of value in the first half, but with an ERA over 5.00 from his second start on, he was understandably being cut in a lot of leagues.

What changed: Lefty dominance. His OPS against left-handers has dropped 436 points since July 1st down to .442 in 82 PA. The only real arsenal difference is dumping an already lightly used slider (down 6 pts to 3%) and funneling it all into his changeup (up 6 pts to 16%). I don’t want to take all the credit away from Taillon, but the .167 BABIP is doing a lot of the heavy lifting as his skills have actually dropped severely from a 14% K-BB rate to just 6%.

His line drive rate on fastballs is down 10 points to 18% which helps drive the BABIP down and he already has more pop-ups (9) on heaters in his last eight starts than he did in first 15 through June (8). The extra changeup use is also aiding this success. It was smashed early on with a 1.400 OPS and 0% K-BB rate in 15 PA through June and it’s down to a .452 OPS and 15% K-BB rate in 14 PA.

The .240 BABIP he has since July 1st on the whole is definitely running hot, but it’s not so egregiously unsustainable that a collapse is incoming. It could push back toward his .284 season mark or even his .304 career mark and there’s still plenty of room for success. No one is expecting a 1.68 ERA the rest of the way, but if he can continue to find success against lefties and consistently keep the ball in the yard (1.8 HR/9 through June; 0.75 since July 1st), he can be a mid-3.00s ERA arm with a strong WHIP and strikeout-per-inning rate.