Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 4th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Thanks for coming out!

JC: LOL @ the mookie collection requirements.

Paul Sporer: An elite card being tough to get? Wow… what an idea lol

Paul Sporer: The complaints about it are MUCH funnier, tbh. With all due respect, y’all are being whack.

CT: Hey Paul, appreciate the chat. Hold or Fold in 12tm roto: Conforto & Gonsolin respectively

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely open to cutting both depending on who you’re picking up. Gonso is easiest to cut but I can definitely get behind moving on from Conforto in a 12-teamer

bkrogman33: Do you think the Angels will lighten Ohtani’s load if they’re officially out of it? Thanks Paul

Paul Sporer: I could definitely see it, primarily from the pitching end, though

Martin: Hey Paul, love your podcasts! Seems wild to think, but can you give your guess on how soon we may see Triston Casas in Boston? Guy is raking at the Olympics and the team has an obvious need at 1B.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for listening! Casas is only in AA and not doing SO well that he’s forcing his way into the majors. I know he did well in the Olympics, but I think he’s gotta hit AAA before reaching the majors

MasterVader: Hi Paul! Who’s your favorite save stash for ROS? Do you think the Cubs will let Wick close?

Paul Sporer: Wick could definitely close there. Is Floro still available? I was a Bender fan, but it really doesn’t seem like he’s the guy at all

MasterVader: Will Ruiz be a top 6 catcher next season?

Paul Sporer: Kind of a vauge Q, tbh. He should definitely get a full shot and I love the talent

Ben:

1. Can only keep 2… Kyle Tucker, Kelenic and Duran. I’m leaning the first 2.

Paul Sporer: Easily the first two

daro: Pham, Canha, Bader ROS? OPS OBP+SLG League

Paul Sporer: I’m on the Bader train. He has severely cut his K% and already had pwr/spd so I like where he’s headed

Ottoneu bro: Hi Paul

Paul Sporer: Hola!

Not a Mets fan: Where has Tyler O’neill’s power gone? Are we holding or dropping ROS?

Paul Sporer: I enjoyed the TON breakthrough earlier this year, but his plate skills make him extremely volatile and we’re seeing the shit end of that volatility right now. Can move on from him in 10-12 teamers if a good option is on the wire

Nate: Can you tell me everything is gonna be ok with Kimbrel still potentially getting saves? Think Nick Anderson is going to close more when he’s back now that Castillo/Fairbanks are out?

Paul Sporer: It’s probably not. I think he will get some SVs rest of season, but Hendriks will still get the lion’s share. Anderson will fill the Castillo role when healthy IMO, which is as close to a guy as the Rays usually get

Ben: Mize or Pablo Lopez in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: It’s closer w/Lopez’s injury, but I’m still going w/him as Mize just doesn’t miss enough bats to bring his fantasy value on a par w/his real life value

AG: Sixto, Josiah Gray, Detmers, McClanahan, Baz… Who should be prioritized? Probably only can keep 2 (10 teamer) but could leverage in trades, etc.

Paul Sporer: I’d lean McClanahan and Gray. Not FULLY abandoning Sixto but obviously a lost year dings his value a good bit

CT: I know you’re a big Stassi guy, but would you take him or Grandal ROS once the latter comes back?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna ride it out w/Stassi. We don’t know how Grandal will be upon return and I don’t have them too far apart when both are healthy

MasterVader: Do you see the Rays giving Baz a chance to grab a rotation spot?

Paul Sporer: This year? I think more of a bullpen multi-IP guy

Ben: George Kirby moving up the ranks! Think he might be the top pitching prospect next year?

Paul Sporer: Even with graduations, I’m not sure he reaches top SP, but top 10 SPs feels right

Not a Mets fan: Rank the following ROS: Kyle Muller, Luis Patino, Jameson Tailon, Tanner Houck

Paul Sporer: http://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-second-half-starting-pitcher…

Paul Sporer: I guess Patiño isn’t on that list but he’d be 2nd for me and Taillon leapfrogs Houck since they’re really messing w/his IP

Chamaco: Ty France – for real & healthy after a wrist injury or SSS hot streak?

Paul Sporer: I’m a France believer! When healthy, I think he’s an all formats kind of guy

Ben: Harper or Tucker in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: That’s REEEAAALLLY close but I think I still lean with Harper. It’s a coinflip, though so pick your personal favorite

Porcho Villa: Who is the better C hold for ROS (5×5 H2H) – Eric Haase or Daulton Varsho?

Paul Sporer: Haase unless you can really use the chip-in SBs from Varsho

IH: Robbie Ray for Joey Gallo, fair?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that passes knowing nothing else about league setup

Kevin Lewis: As a Twins fan, should I be overly excited for Martin? Or should  keep my expectations in check?

Paul Sporer: You can be excited while keeping your expectations in check. He’s not the next Trea Turner, but it was undoubtedly a good return for Berrios. It was a win-win deal IMO

Dave: Hey Paul — love the show, long time listener, first time caller.  Wondering this:  10 team Roto H2H with a CI spot and a U spot.  Between Rizzo, Votto, Goldschmidt, and Schoop, if you could only keep 3 ROS, who would you let go?

Paul Sporer: It’s gotta be Schoop. We are through the Schoopening (his annual mega hot streak) and he’s hitting to a .671 OPS w/just 1 HR in his last 25 gms

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Is it time to move on from Tyler Mahle in 12 team points league? He hasn’t had it since the sticky stuff ban.

Paul Sporer: I dunno, his first couple start after the ban were tough, but he has a 4.18 ERA and 33 Ks in 32.3 IP since July 1st. The WHIP is bad at 1.51, but is there really much better on the wire?

Dan: Big debut for Jo Adell. Will he be a contributor RoS or will we be duped again?

Paul Sporer: I truly don’t know bc he’s still a big K% risk, buuut he’s too talented not to take a shot on so I think he’s an all formats pickup

FJM: Do you think Elieser Hernandez is worth a pick up in 12tm now that he’s rehabbing at AAA? Waivers are ridiculously thin for pitching

Paul Sporer: Agreed re: waivers being roughhh for SPs right now so ya take a shot

Paul’s Twitch: Bellinger ever going to turn it around? Hold or Drop in 16T League?

Paul Sporer: Gotta hang on in a league that deep, but he might not get back on track until ’22 at this point

Conforto: Would you cut me for Dom Smith or Jake Fraley?

Paul Sporer: Probably not Dom, but I’m a Fraley truther

Guest: Is Brad Hand droppable in save only leagues?  Guys like finnegan, soto and floro are all available.  Maybe give him this week?

Paul Sporer: I think you’ve got the answer right there – give him a week and let’s see if we can figure out how the saves might be divvied

Brad Wesley: What do you think of Jazz Chisolm long term?

Paul Sporer: Volatile with some major fantasy seasons in a Javier Baez-type mold

Dan: Are we buying Abraham Toro’s recent hot streak?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t realize this before the trade, but it turns out he’s pretty divisive with some really hating him and others – like myself – being pretty keen on him. I don’t think he’s a star in the making or anything, but I just can’t write him off until he gets a real chance which is what we’re starting to see and the results are nice. I’m in. He’s a must-roster in 12s or better and probably even some 10s depending on your roster

Farmer Ted (not a farmer): Who do you like most at 3b for ROS: France, K Seager, Bohm, Wisdom, Candelario. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gahhh, that’s tough bc they’re so similar. Wisdom if you can eat the AVG, Bohm if you need a more balanced approach w/AVG and then some pop

Pete: I’m in a large league in which all the obvious minor leaguers are already rostered. (Basically, most of the top 100.) Who are some under the radar starting pitchers who might get August/September call-ups?

Paul Sporer: I’m actually planning on article on this but I haven’t started it so I don’t have answers RIGHT NOW. Should be done next week!

Bob Villar: Acuna or Muncy/Bellinger in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: That’s a fair deal to me. Probably still gotta go Acuña, though

Chantanella: If I’m needing to claw back in S+H in a roto league, what should I be willing to give up for guys like Pomeranz (SP/RP eligible right now), Chapman, Melancon?

These are RPs on teams that are out of it this season (fantasy-wise). Do I give up top 100-150 guys (either P or bat) or do I have to offer more?

Paul Sporer: No no, you shouldn’t have to offer more than that or even that. The proliferation of SV/HD should make these guys easier to get and if ppl are asking too much, I think the wire could still be an option

Paul’s Xtra Large Shirt Collar: Any buy low 2B or 3B right now? Need to shore up MI slot ahead of the playoff push. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Whit is struggling, check in and see if his price is down

Paul Sporer: You said 3B but also MI so I’m not sure if you meant SS, but among 3B, I’d check in on Moncada, Hayes, and Chapman

Doug: Hi Paul.  The weekly chats are very appreciated.  Is this as good as Kikuchi gets (which is quite good) or is there another level he can get to?

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming to them! And yes, I do kinda think this solid above-avg level is his best. Can probably shave the ERA down to 3.40-3.50 but that’s not MASSIVELY different than where he’s at right now

Arma Virumque: AL Only interest levels for Keller, Quantril, C. Hernandez, Tyler Anderson?

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for Quantrill and even have him in some mixers, so definitely him in AL only

Two Tylers: Am I the only one confusing Tyler Alexander and Tyler Anderson?

Paul Sporer: No way, I’ve done it myself and Alexander plays for my favorite team

Alfred: Sell high on Jo Adell for Brendan Rodgers?

Paul Sporer: is that REALLY a sell high?

Colin: India or Chisholm ROS?

Paul Sporer: India has a MUCH higher floor while Jazz has a higher ceiling so let your standings dictate where you go w/that. I’d lean India in most cases.

Cam: If you had to count on one to backend your fantasy playoff rotation, would you choose: A rookie with unsure innings like Kyle Muller, or an established ace coming off TJ like Severino?

Paul Sporer: I think you can lean on Muller a bit bc he only has 71 IP so he might not face an aggressive shutdown. I just don’t like trusting TJ guys, espec. in a fantasy playoff situation (to wit, I’d go Sevvy in Roto bc bottom line matters more, but the volatility could kill you in a given week in H2H)

Kyle: Paul, can you guarantee us that Blake Snell will not be ranked within the top 70 pitchers when you do 2022 SP rankings? (Was lucky #13 this year)

Paul Sporer: Look, he’s my boy and I consider him a friend, but I don’t want to just rank him high for funsies. I believed in my ranking coming into the year thinking he could build on what he’s done to date while also expanding his workload. I can’t promise he won’t be top 70, but he won’t be top 50

Sam: Which is most likely: Torkelson debuts this year, he is up on opening day 2022, he is up sometimes after a few weeks go by in 2022?

Paul Sporer: The latter for sure

We Missed You: Hey Paul, truly not trying to give you a hard time about this. Love what you do and know how busy you must be. But it seemed like there may have been fewer monthly SP ranks on the site this year between Opening Day and the ASB. Did I miss ’em or did they migrate to the Patreon?

Paul Sporer: They migrated to Patreon, but I should’ve done more monthlies on the site. I will have at least 2 more updates rest of season on FG

Ramp: Noelvi Marte or Julio Rodriguez in a 12 team keeper?

Paul Sporer: J Rod for me

Porcho Villa: What’s wrong with Yu? Rough stretch and got trounced by COL on the road last week. Think he turns it around ROS?

MasterVader: You see anything wrong with Darvish? He’s been downright ordinary for a while….no sticky stuff?

Paul Sporer: Hard not to think the sticky stuff didn’t play a role on some level: 2.50 ERA before, 6.25 ERA since. HR9 jumped from 1.0 to 2.6 and that’s command which is pretty easy to tie to sticky stuff

Steve Nebraska: Re: Harper v Tucker… Tucker since he’s younger and it’s a dynasty

Paul Sporer: Not an unfair take, but I tend to look at a 2-3 yr block even for dynasties and I’d still prefer Harper in that window

Chantanella: 12-tm, Roto, Keep forever, going for it all this year after finishing 4th then 3rd then 2nd.

I traded my Arenado, Jarren Duran, Skubal, and Asa Lacy for their Judge, Haniger, and Spencer Howard. How’d I do?

Caveat: I was stocked way too deep at 3B and was weak in the OF (start one 3B, one CI, five OF).

Paul Sporer: I’m with it. It makes logical sense based on your needs and situation

Also Paul: Are you buying Hosmer’s BA resurgence?

Paul Sporer: Sure but when you only hit the ball on the ground, it’s bound to go up

Dave: The Schoopening!  I love it.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: It’s such a great time of each season!

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Hold Sewald? got a hold last night.

Paul Sporer: Yeah you can, but I think Castillo is going to at last fulfill his TB as “mostly the guy”

Kyle: Have you come around on Cedric Mullins? I remember listening to S&tB prior to the season and Justin was always singing his praises but you were very pessimistic.

Paul Sporer: Was I?

Paul Sporer: I give Justin all the credit on him, but I don’t recall having any sort of strong negative take on him

Kolten: You like Luzardo or Hamels better as a late-season flyer?

Paul Sporer: I’d rather take the Luzardo shot

ChuckNChino: Miguel Yajure (PIT) any love for him ROS?  What about next year?

Paul Sporer: More so for next year, but I’m intrigued and if he is called back up I could see spot starting him in some deeper formats

Sup: You on OF?

Paul Sporer: More of an infielder/pitcher type

ChuckNChino: Carter Kieboom interesting, ROS?

Paul Sporer: I need to see more and honestly, by the time he shows me enough to care, he’ll already be picked up and I’m OK w/that

Quincy: Saw last night where Mahle has had his bullpen blow more leads than anyone else. Any idea where to find that? Tried fangraphs,mlb and savant to no avail

Paul Sporer: Hmm, it has to be somewhere. Can you ask me that on Twitter so I see it after the chat and follow up to try & find it somewhere

We Missed You: Big love to your response about the SP ranks, brother. They’re such good food for thought – as are the follow-up pods. Thanks always for the great work. You & JM are must-follows and listens.

Paul Sporer: Thank you, I appreciate that! And while they can be agonizing to do in terms of slotting guys, I looove discussing SPs!

Brandon: Got a challenge trade of yelich for arozarena in a 5×5. Think yelich can rebound?

Paul Sporer: He CAN, yes, but I’m gonna ride w/Rozy rest of way

Guest: Davidson (ATL) gonna get another chance this year?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy, but I haven’t heard anything recently. Was there news today?

Al Gone Quinn: Was DeSclafani lucky during the 1st half of the season? Do you think he’ll turn it back around?

Paul Sporer: He was over his skis a bit in the 1H but to dismiss him as lucky is really unfair to me. 2 baseline QS and 2 duds in the 2H doesn’t tell me he was a fraud. He’s a solid high-3.00s ERA/low-4.00s ERA guy which is still super valuable, espec. for his draft price

Guest: No news on Davidson — but the ATL rotation is full (Touki getting moved back to AAA?  Ynoa coming soon?) and not sure they want to rush him back, except Davidson’s results were pretty good.

Paul Sporer: Yeah he was awesome but I agree they won’t rush him. Ynoa was a disaster in his first rehab but it was always going to be a multi-start rehab so it’s fine.

Heaney: Thanks for another long chat!

Paul Sporer: You’re quite welcome, though this is indeed the end of it!

Paul Sporer: Thank you all so much for coming out. Back again next week!! Take care, y’all. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer) and Twitch (twitch.tv/sporer) where I livestream 5-6 days a week!!