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92-70 (3rd in Division; 8th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 50 (11th)

RP Wins: 42 (8th)

Saves: 49 (5th)

1+ Save: 10 (Matt Barnes 24, Adam Ottavino 11, Hansel Robles 4, Garrett Richards 3, Garrett Whitlock 2, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez, Matt Andriese 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Nathan Eovaldi 195, Eduardo Rodriguez 185, Pivetta 175, Richards 115)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Xander Bogaerts .295, Alex Verdugo .289, J.D. Martinez .286, Rafael Devers .279)

65+ Runs: 6 (Devers 101, Martinez 92, Bogaerts 90, Hunter Renfroe 89, Verdugo 88, Enrique Hernández 84)

65+ RBI: 5 (Devers 113, Martinez 99, Renfroe 96, Bogaerts 79, Bobby Dalbec 78, Verdugo was close at 63)

10+ HRs: 7 (Devers 38, Renfroe 31, Martinez 28, Dalbec 25, Bogaerts 23, Hernandez 20, Verdugo 13)

5+ SBs: 4 (Christian Vázquez 8, Verdugo 6, Devers, Bogaerts 5)

BEST BUY: J.D. Martinez

Martinez re-acquired OF eligibility, got back on track v. righties, and was on the cusp of the fabled 30-100-100 season (missed by 2 HR, 1 RBI, 8 R). He did lead baseball with 42 doubles and while most leagues don’t directly count doubles, it’s part of his power output and obviously makes driving in runs easier. Martinez was another case of overrating the shortened 2020 and this isn’t just hindsight, either, as I wrote him up last December saying as much. He is definitely worth his pick-91 ADP and even his high end (min pick of 72) still has plenty of profit potential.

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12/3/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Marcus Stroman to CHC (3:11)
  • Carlos Correa/Trevor Story markets (6:00)
• Chris Taylor to LAD (13:22)
• Raisel Iglesias back to LAA (21:13)
• Hunter Renfroe traded to MIL (22:52)
• James Paxton & Rich Hill to BOS (33:00)

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91-71 (4th in Division; 9th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 61 (4th)

RP Wins: 30 (24th)

Saves: 34 (24th)

1+ Save: 9 (Jordan Romano 23, Rafael Dolis 3, Julian Merryweather 2, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, Tyler Chatwood, Anthony Castro, Tommy Milone, A.J. Cole 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Robbie Ray 248, Steven Matz 144, Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 143, Alek Manoah 127)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 6 (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .311, Bo Bichette .298, Teoscar Hernández .296, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .276, Marcus Semien .265, George Springer .264 in 342 PA)

65+ Runs: 5 (Guerrero Jr. 123, Bichette 121, Semien 115, Hernández 92, Gurriel Jr. 62)

65+ RBI: 6 (Hernández 116, Guerrero Jr. 111, Bichette, Semien 102, Gurriel Jr. 84, Randal Grichuk 81)

10+ HRs: 8 (Guerrero Jr. 48, Semien 45, Hernández 32, Bichette 29, Grichuk, Springer 22, Gurriel Jr. 21, Jansen 11)

5+ SBs: 4 (Bichette 25, Semien 15, Hernández 12, Santiago Espinal 6)

BEST BUY: Bo Bichette

I had some questions about Bichette’s speed or just one question, but it was: does he really have it? He was 8-for-13 as a major leaguer but had managed 30 per 600 PA in the minors. I was concerned about getting burned by minor league SB totals again as I had with George Springer and Joc Pederson. Springer had a 40 SB/600 PA rate in the minors and Pederson was at 33 SB/600 PA. They have a combined 71 SBs in 6907 PA. But Bichette took off, going 25-for-26 in a dream season and now he’s a firm 1st-rounder as a do-everything middle infield stud.

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11/30/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Max Scherzer to NYM (7:24)
• Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Jon Gray, Kole Calhoun to TEX (20:30)
• Javier Báez to DET (46:58)
• Kevin Gausman to TOR (54:14)
• Robbie Ray, Adam Frazier to SEA (1:03:30)

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90-72 (2nd in Division; 10th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 54 (9th)

RP Wins: 36 (13th)

Saves: 50 (4th)

1+ Save: 7 (Alex Reyes 29, Giovanny Gallegos 14, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Luis García 2, Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현, Ryan Helsley, Justin Miller 1)

100+ Ks: 1 (Adam Wainwright 174)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Paul Goldschmidt .294, Tyler O’Neill .286, Edmundo Sosa .271, Harrison Bader .267, Dylan Carlson .266)

65+ Runs: 5 (Goldschmidt 102, Tommy Edman 91, O’Neill 89, Nolan Arenado 81, Carlson 79)

65+ RBI: 5 (Arenado 105, Goldschmidt 99, O’Neill 80, Yadier Molina 66, Carlson 65)

10+ HRs: 8 (Arenado, O’Neill 34, Goldschmidt 31, Paul DeJong 19, Carlson 18, Bader 16, Molina, Edman 11)

5+ SBs: 4 (Edman 30, O’Neill 15, Goldschmidt 12, Bader 9)

BEST BUY: Tommy Edman

Edman’s primary value comes from his speed as he was 30-for-35 on the bases last year. He also chipped in 91 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, and a .262 AVG, but he is drafted for the SBs and positional flexibility (he’ll be 2B/OF to start 2022). Only 15 guys are projected for 20+ SBs next year according to Steamer and from that group, only Myles Straw (142) and Akil Baddoo (168) are available cheaper than Edman (84). With his contact and speed, Edman is a nice BABIP away from chasing down a .300 AVG, too.

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90-72 (2nd in Division; 11th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 45 (13th)

RP Wins: 45 (4th)

Saves: 51 (3rd)

1+ Save: 8 (Drew Steckenrider 14, Paul Sewald 11, Kendall Graveman 10, Rafael Montero 7, Keynan Middleton 4, Yohan Ramirez, Diego Castillo 2, Erik Swanson 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Yusei Kikuchi 163, Logan Gilbert 128, Chris Flexen 플렉센 125, Marco Gonzales 108, Sewald 104)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Ty France .291, J.P. Crawford .273)

65+ Runs: 4 (Mitch Haniger 110, Crawford 89, France 85, Kyle Seager 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Seager 101, Haniger 100, France 73)

10+ HRs: 7 (Haniger 39, Seager 35, France 18, Luis Torrens 15, Jarred Kelenic 14, Dylan Moore 12, Tom Murphy 11)

5+ SBs: 5 (Moore 21, Jake Fraley 10, Kelenic, Jake Bauers 6, Sam Haggerty 5)

BEST BUY: Mitch Haniger

Injuries cost Haniger 99 games in 2019 and all of 2020. Once healthy, he picked up where he left off as a premium power source. His power metrics are strong and he has decent plate skills so if he can remain healthy, he’s a 30-90 lock. A couple of his biggest injuries have been fluky so I don’t think he has exceptionally higher injury risk with 157 games played in two of his last three seasons (63 in ’19, 0 in ’20). He goes just outside the Top 100, a fair price for such a capable power bat.

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11/23/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Justin Verlander back to HOU (2:25)
• Anthony DeSclafani back to SF (6:54)
  • Alex Wood, Alex Cobb to follow?
• Sandy Alcantara nearing an extension (11:20)
• Brent Honeywell Jr. to OAK (15:17)
• Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor, Tyler Wade DFA’d (20:35)

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88-71 (1st in Division; 12th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 57 (7th)

RP Wins: 31 (2nd)

Saves: 40 (15th)

1+ Save: 4 (Will Smith 37, Chris Martin, Jacob Webb, Sean Newcomb 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Charlie Morton 216, Max Fried 156, Ian Anderson 124, Drew Smyly 117, Huascar Ynoa 100)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Austin Riley .303, Freddie Freeman .300, Ronald Acuña Jr. .283)

65+ Runs: 5 (Freeman 120, Ozzie Albies 103, Riley 91, Dansby Swanson 78, Acuña Jr. 72)

65+ RBI: 4 (Riley 107, Albies 106, Swanson 88, Freeman 83)

10+ HRs: 7 (Riley 33, Freeman 31, Albies 30, Swanson 27, Acuña Jr. 24, Adam Duvall 16, Jorge Soler 14)

5+ SBs: 4 (Albies 20, Acuña Jr. 17, Swanson 9, Freeman 8)

BEST BUY: Max Fried

Fried is a budding ace at #2 prices. After a slow start and injury (11.45 ERA in 3 starts then a 3-week hamstring IL stint), he reeled off 154.7 innings of a 2.44 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He was pretty sharp in the playoffs, too, with a couple of rough 2nd innings being the only blips on his record. He had a 4.23 ERA across five starts, allowing 7 of his 13 ER in the 2nd innings of Game 5 in the NLCS and Game 2 in the World Series. If healthy, his first 200-inning season should be on the horizon and if he is at or near the 2.84 ERA/1.09 WHIP we have seen since 2020, then a top 10 finish will come with it.

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86-76 (3rd in Division; 13th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 57 (6th)

RP Wins: 29 (25th)

Saves: 39 (18th)

1+ Save: 5 (Lou Trivino 22, Jake Diekman 7, Andrew Chafin 5, Sergio Romo 3, Yusmeiro Petit 2)

100+ Ks: 5 (Frankie Montas 207, Sean Manaea 194, Chris Bassitt 159, Cole Irvin 125, James Kaprielian 123)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Tony Kemp .279, Matt Olson .271)

65+ Runs: 3 (Olson 101, Mark Canha 93, Matt Chapman 75)

65+ RBI: 3 (Olson 111, Chapman 72, Jed Lowrie 69)

10+ HRs: 8 (Olson 39, Chapman 27, Seth Brown 20, Canha, Sean Murphy 17, Lowrie, Ramón Laureano 14, Mitch Moreland 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Starling Marte 25 [total: 47, led MLB], Canha, Laureano, Elvis Andrus 12, Kemp 8)

BEST BUY: Mark Canha

He is a free agent, but unless he signs before I finish these (and with a remaining team), then I won’t get to write him up.

Canha’s hip injury seemed to linger and really undercut his season as he posted just a .659 OPS with 6 HR and 5 SB in 300 PA after returning. Prior to that, he had an .826 OPS with 11 HR and 7 SB in 325 PA which was in line with the guy he had been in 2019-20 (.876 OPS in 740 PA). The sneaky speed has sustained his value and made him a very valuable player. He ranked 126th this past year even with the weak second half and yet he is being drafted at pick 276 so far. He will likely jump a bit when he signs, but that would be a round at most so there is room for the 33-year-old to regress some and still be a plus buy in the draft.

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