Author Archive

5 Players I’m Removing from My Draft Board

A strategy we are hearing more and more about in the fantasy community is paring down your draft board by not just highlighting your targets, but actively removing players you won’t draft. Sure, everyone has a price you would likely pay, but if you won’t even pay the max pick price on someone, you can safely remove them from your sheet. A lot of this comes down to your team building and how different players fit into it.

Do you just take “the value” on someone who fell two rounds past ADP even though it doesn’t fit your team, or do you stick with the plan? And I put value in quotes as it can be a bit of a fugazi because if you aren’t putting together a cohesive squad, what good is this perceived value? In recent years, I have read and listened to fantasy managers discuss this process, so I have started doing it myself. Here are some early round guys that just don’t fit what I am trying to do in 2022:

Salvador Perez | C, KC, 35 ADP

Last year was awesome but I just can’t pay this price. I don’t even think I’d pay his max pick of 55 at this point. He will remain a power force behind the dish, but even as a high-volume catcher, there is no shot he is logging another 665 PA. The projections are very robust, ranging from 34 to 40 HR, but that seems really aggressive. Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza are the only catchers with multiple 40+ HR seasons and I don’t see Perez joining them.

(Edit: 1st version said 30+ HR seasons… pardon the typo. There are several Cs w/2+ 30-HR seasons.)

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1009 – 8 Players Who Could Make “The Leap” in 2022

2/8/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

LEAPERS

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2022 Sporer Sleepers Vol. 2

What are sleepers? Do they even really exist anymore in the information age? The term is definitely bastardized to the point where you might come across a “sleeper list” that is littered with picks inside the top 150. It could just be semantics of defining “sleepers”, but guys taken that high just don’t qualify.

For me, sleepers don’t start until player 300 in 15-team leagues (~200 for 10-teamers, ~240 for 12-teamers). There isn’t a perfect cutoff, but it is fair to tab anyone going after the 20th round as a “sleeper”. We saw the likes of Tyler O’Neill (303 ADP last year), Logan Webb (322), Cedric Mullins (348), and Emmanuel Clase (399) among the major sleeper hits last year.

I’m using the NFBC ADP and putting a start date of 1/1/22 for this first version of Sleepers.

Previous Versions:

Pavin Smith | Arizona Diamondbacks, 1B-OF | 369 ADP

I understand why one might just pass over Smith in their analysis for fantasy outfielders (or first basemen). Nothing about his 96 wRC+, 11 HR debut jumps off the page as must-buy. I’m betting on the contact and plate skills profiles. His 19% K rate was a good bit better than average (23%), but I don’t even think we have seen the best he can do there. He had just a 7% swinging strike rate, 17th-best in the league and well below the 11% league average.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 2nd, 2022

2-2-22… at 2pm ET! Too perfect! Transcript is below, thanks for coming out!!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1008 – Potential Fades via The BATX

2/1/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

BAT X FADES

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2022 Sporer Breakouts Vol. 1

First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series last week (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 5 player next year, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers (which will be today’s focus), 48 in 12s, and 40 in 10s.

Max Fried | Atlanta Braves, SP | 71 ADP

If Fried hadn’t gotten hurt last year, he would’ve set a new high in innings and if his ratios had held (3.04 ERA/1.09 WHIP), it would’ve been the breakout. Instead, he matched his 2019 IP total (165.7) so I can still finagle him into a breakout situation with the idea being he pushes 185+ IP of equal or better ratios and perhaps even more strikeouts. We are only going into Fried’s third full season so there is still development happening here.

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2022 Sporer Sleepers Vol. 1

What are sleepers? Do they even really exist anymore in the information age? The term is definitely bastardized to the point where you might come across a “sleeper list” that is littered with picks inside the top 150. It could just be semantics of defining “sleepers”, but guys taken that high just don’t qualify.

For me, sleepers don’t start until player 300 in 15-team leagues (~200 for 10-teamers, ~240 for 12-teamers). There isn’t a perfect cutoff, but it is fair to tab anyone going after the 20th round as a “sleeper”. We saw the likes of Tyler O’Neill (303 ADP last year), Logan Webb (322), Cedric Mullins (348), and Emmanuel Clase (399) among the major sleeper hits last year.

I’m using the NFBC ADP and putting a start date of 1/1/22 for this first version of Sleepers. And yes, the Vol. 1 in the title does mean there will be more than one of these articles over the remainder of the winter!

Luis Patiño | Tampa Bay Rays, SP | 302 ADP

Patiño enjoyed a nice development season with 77.3 IP in the majors and 29.3 IP at Triple-A. He showed flashes of his upside, highlighted by a 6-start run during which he posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 30 Ks in 31.7 IP. A mid-to-high 90s heater and strong mid-80s slider make him hell on righties (.594 OPS) but the lack of a bankable third pitch is a big reason for his platoon problem against lefties (.830 OPS). He is still just 22 years old, though, so there is still time for the third pitch to come together. Patiño could reasonably reach 150 IP this year and that slider could generate more than a strikeout-per-inning. The ratios will depend on his development against lefties and ability to reign in the homers, but I’m happy to pay up for the potential.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 26th, 2022

Transcript is live!!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Welcome to my chat!

1:03

Adam: What are your thoughts on Cedric Mullins this year?  Do you think last year was fluky or can he put up similar numbers again?  Is his adp to high or about right?

1:07

Paul Sporer: I really like him! There is a lot of believability in what he did, though it is definitely a buy-high off a career year which is always worrisome. About the only thing you can truly say about him is that there’s little track record, but I don’t think that alone is enough to move away from him

1:09

Rachel: Hi Paul, I’m trying to decide which 2 of the 3 to keep this year. deGrom, G Cole or C Burnes. Thanks!

1:10

Paul Sporer: I think you gotta go Cole and Burnes w/deGrom’s health being the tiebreaker

1:11

Vince: Hi! I’m  in 12-team Roto H2H with 1 UT spot, I have both Olson and Goldschmidt from last year at good value. Although keeping both limit my roster flexibility, I only see Riley and O’Neil likely comparable bats available to draft. Would you keep both? Thanks!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1005 – Potential Gems via The BATX

1/25/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

BAT X GEMS

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Paul Sporer’s 2022 Reliever Rankings and Closer Chart

The lockout makes this position the most uncertain on the fantasy diamond. With the lack of December and January moves, there is still so much unsettled in the closer market. To give you an idea of just how wild things are, my #14 RP is in the same bullpen as my #1, but I firmly believe Craig Kimbrel will be traded before the season starts so I’m treating him as a pretty impactful closer right now. I’ll start with a standard 1-70 ranking of relievers and then give 1-2-3 outlook of each team based on how things set up right now.

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