Boxscore Bits: April 20th, 2022

A few thoughts on the games from Tuesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

• Don’t get hung up on MadBum’s 1.38 ERA as it comes with a negative K-BB rate of -2%! He is walking the yard (18%) and I just don’t see how this is sustainable. His 91.1 mph velo is a 3-year higher, but that’s about the only thing going the right way.
• Fried’s outing in LA is why you start your studs!! In fairness, I didn’t see a ton of chatter about sitting him, but I’m not sure why there was any. He had the Dodgers chasing (48% O-Swing) and when they did make contact, it was mostly playable grounders (64% GB, 83.9 mph EV).
• HOU ran up Sandoval’s pitch count to get him out after 4 IP, but he survived the remarkably difficult matchup. Neither his 7% SwStr nor 26% CSW were particularly strong, but 5 Ks and 1 unearned run got the job done.
• Adon’s gem is almost entirely driven by a weak opponent (ARI) as his 6% K-BB and 5% SwStr are just brutal.
• I don’t buy Waino’s early strikeout surge (28% thru 16 IP) with just a 6% SwStr and 25% O-Swing, both well below average. His MLB-best 24% Called Strike rate is driving the success, but he led the league last year and still had just a 21% K rate so I’m not sure that even an excellent Called Strike rate is enough to sustain these strikeouts.
• Josiah Gray was great and did his normal thing: get a bunch of Ks and give up a HR (Daulton Varsho, 2). He’s gets SF at home this weekend and then in SF next week so I’d probably sit him for both, but he is a team streamer so I wouldn’t cut him.
• Eovaldi labored through 4.7 IP against TOR, but there is nothing actionable from it as you obviously aren’t going to sit him, even with a trip to TB this weekend.
• Burnes and Musgrove had ace-level outings.
• Ray bounced back a bit here with his velo up some and he did well enough, though he is still not quite on that Cy Young level just yet. Obviously, an auto-start everywhere, though.
• Freeland is always good for a bunch of solid home starts but knowing when to start him there is tough. He is a traditional streamer, though his 2-step next week at PHI and home v. CIN is pretty tough.
• I definitely sat Gibson in Coors and missed that solid QS, but it’s process over results here! He is a team streamer and I’m using him next week v. COL and at NYM (not an easy setup, but workable for a solid mid-tier arm).
• Megill got his first big challenge as SF jumped him early in counts when he was trying to steal cheap strikes, but I was impressed by how he bounced back with 3 scoreless innings after allowing 4 ER in the first 3 innings. Velo was down, but watching him deal with the in-game adversity was impressive.
• Such a bummer to see Cobb get hurt running to cover 1B and pulling his groin. I’d hang on anywhere I can, but I understand if you have to cut him in 10s and maybe some 12s.
• I did mention after his first start that the sun setup likely helped Luzardo be that good at LAA, but I don’t think he’s a fraud or that this outing was some sort of comeuppance. STL has been the league’s best team versus lefties since the start of last year so this was always a tough setup. If anyone cuts Luzardo, pick him up even with a trip to ATL on the docket for this weekend.
• The Mets are good and they got to Webb, I’m unmoved by this start.
• Cole was done in by a complete lack of control with 5 BB in a very early exit. The primary theory has been that the sticky stuff ban is behind his issues (4.37 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.28 WHIP) and while I don’t know if it’s that cut-and-dried, it is hard to just completely ignore that he isn’t who he was prior to the ban. I still can’t envision sitting him anywhere, but I’m super thrilled with the early returns.

NOTABLE CALLUPS

• Gabriel Arias, SS | CLE – Arias was a top 100 prospect this year (#95), though a good part of that is his fielding at a key position. He skipped Double-A and more than held his own at Triple-A last year (115 wRC+) with 13 HR and 5 SB. He was probably just called up for the doubleheader, but it will make him eligible for pickups in NFBC leagues so if he is sent right back down, he won’t be scooped in many leagues. However, you can keep tabs on him and when it looks like he is due up more permanently, you can pounce ahead of time.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Wednesday, April 20th (not including the afternoon games which are already mostly done):

• Can Drew Rasmussen go more than 5?
• Will Sandy Alcantara find Ks against the Cards?
• Logan Gilbert has become someone I watch every fifth day.
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 gets a great opportunity to stay hot facing the Nats.