Starting Pitcher Chart – July 9th, 2025
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.
Starter Notes July 9, 2025
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | 2025 wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kris Bubic | KCR v PIT | x | x | x | 103 | 2.36 | 1.15 | 18% | 30th | Is he getting enough love for his excellent season? Had some late draft season helium and has completely paid off on it! |
| 2 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN at STL | x | x | x | 104 | 3.11 | 1.21 | 23% | 17th | |
| 3 | Andrew Abbott | CIN v MIA | x | x | x | 83 | 2.15 | 1.09 | 17% | 18th | I know MIA is cooking and shouts to the commenter who suggested caution on Martinez bc of their hot streak, but I’m still not running from them w/good arms |
| 4 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI at SFG | x | x | x | 97 | 4.44 | 1.47 | 19% | 26th | Just some crazy volatility this yr: 8 Game Scores of 60+ but 4 under 40 including that hot -11 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | SDP v ARI | x | x | x | 97 | 4.62 | 1.33 | 20% | 1st | Right-handed Luzardo: 6 GS of 64+, 6 under 45 but it’s just so hard to sit them |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | BOS v COL | x | x | x | 66 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 13% | 25th | |
| 7 | David Peterson | NYM at BAL | x | x | x | 102 | 3.18 | 1.27 | 12% | 27th | |
| 8 | Brandon Walter | HOU v CLE | x | x | x | 34 | 4.15 | 1.13 | 21% | 28th | Knew it was a risk taking him into Coors but I’m getting back on the horse as I still love the 51% GB/22% K-BB combo |
| 9 | Reese Olson | DET v TBR | W | x | x | 53 | 2.89 | 1.21 | 15% | 6th | This gm has moved to 5:10 ET to account for weather concerns; Olson was solid in his return from the IL w/1 R in 4.3 IP on 89 pitches, tough spot v. TBR but he’s in my lineups |
| 10 | Eric Lauer 라우어 | TOR at CHW | W | x | x | 51 | 2.65 | 1.02 | 18% | 19th | Quietly dealing and the Jays being hot gives him plenty of W potential here |
| 11 | Bailey Falter | PIT at KCR | x | x | 92 | 3.69 | 1.18 | 6% | 24th | Modest upside, but not the worst spot to stream him and as you’ll soon see, a lot of the compelling streamer types have MUCH tougher matchups | |
| 12 | Kumar Rocker | TEX at LAA | x | x | 45 | 5.80 | 1.49 | 13% | 19th | Rug-pull always looms overhead, but he’s running well (2.55/1.13/15% in L4) so let’s take a shot & hope he keeps it in the park v. this HR-hitting tm | |
| 13 | Cade Horton | CHC at MIN | x | 52 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 10% | 23rd | Keeps us coming back w/gems like his last one (7 scoreless), but Game Score is an easy shorthand reminder of his volatility: 41-66-32-16-70 (sub-50 is terrible; 60+ is v. good) | ||
| 14 | Mitch Spence | ATH v ATL | x | 68 | 4.06 | 1.31 | 13% | 17th | Not exactly targeting SPs v. ATL, but certainly not running from competent streamers v. them either | ||
| 15 | Justin Verlander | SFG v PHI | x | 70 | 4.84 | 1.44 | 11% | 9th | |||
| 16 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD at MIL | W | 18 | 4.50 | 1.28 | 16% | 21st | He made it 4.3 IP on 78 pitches in his last rehab so if they give him 80-85 pitches, he could make it 5… it’s risky, but I could see a win chase | ||
| 17 | Slade Cecconi | CLE at HOU | 48 | 3.56 | 1.31 | 15% | 16th | From Slade to Sugano, all but Pfaadt are facing Top 10 tms in the L30 days and most are there season-long, too, which is tough bc this group has some streaming appeal on talent but the matchups leave me cold | |||
| 18 | Zack Littell | TBR at DET | 110 | 3.50 | 1.07 | 14% | 7th | ||||
| 19 | Jose Quintana | MIL v LAD | 65 | 3.44 | 1.39 | 6% | 4th | ||||
| 20 | David Festa | MIN v CHC | 42 | 5.48 | 1.36 | 16% | 3rd | ||||
| 21 | Logan Evans | SEA at NYY | 45 | 2.96 | 1.25 | 11% | 4th | ||||
| 22 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI at SDP | 91 | 5.42 | 1.38 | 14% | 24th | Best matchup of this “sometimes intriguing” group and yet I have no interest in running him | |||
| 23 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL v NYM | 93 | 4.44 | 1.31 | 10% | 5th | ||||
| 24 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA at CIN | 86 | 7.01 | 1.44 | 8% | 14th | I know MIA is rolling and s, but Sandy still scares me start-to-start especially for such limited upside | |||
| 25 | Cam Schlittler | NYY v SEA | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 11th | Interesting prospect making his MLB debut, but wanna see one before getting him in any lineups | |||
| 26 | Bryce Elder | ATL at ATH | 73 | 5.92 | 1.52 | 11% | 10th | ||||
| 27 | Adrian Houser | CHW v TOR | 50 | 1.60 | 1.11 | 11% | 13th | ||||
| 28 | Andre Pallante | STL v WSN | 94 | 4.10 | 1.28 | 8% | 22nd | ||||
| 29 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA v TEX | 92 | 4.68 | 1.27 | 10% | 26th | ||||
| 30 | Antonio Senzatela | COL at BOS | 86 | 6.57 | 1.90 | 3% | 15th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues |
KEY –
x-Standard Recommendation
W: Wins Chase meaning we accept some ratio risk for a chance to salvage a dub
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Way too risk averse with Glasnow and Schlittler – enjoy starting Spencer and Verlander over them!
With Glasnow maybe, but recently M’s have been good outside of Safeco (or whatever it is called now) against RHP’s; would not start.
I’m down to pick up either (Glasnow probably has some shallower league availability, but he was stashed in a lot of spots), just don’t wanna start ’em today. I can maybe get there w/Glasnow, but Schlitter’s MLB debut against a solid SEA team doesn’t jump out to me as a start
Checking in here…..
Does Cease suck tho? I moslty kid as I love him but also….
Catch him on the right day and he’s a Cy Young candidate… wrong day and you’re wondering how he got out of AAA
I know the results haven’t been there but starting with his May 5th start, Alcantara has the 14th best Pitching+ numbers out of 76 qualified pitchers. The command is coming back and the stuff is still great. It’s just a matter of time before the results are there also.
He is pitching better and I should’ve given him some credit for that but I still think it’s very limited upside to run him rn
Houser seems a little low. He’s low K and not dominating but he’s ERA estimators are reasonable enough and he handled the Toronto lineup okay last time (though I’m coming from a points league perspective where a bad day at the office on WHIP doesn’t necessarily kill if you get the innings volume)
Thresholds are a generally a level lower for points leagues so ya I can see starting him in that tough matchup in a pts lg, but roto is a tougher sell w/low W chance and modest Ks
Was gonna stream Lauer chasing the probable win vs. the CWS, but am going with Walter instead mostly because Jeff Zimmerman LOVES him.
So wait, I missed this from yesterday but the Angels left Aldegheri in there to throw 64 pitches in 2 IP including a whopping 41 in his 1st inning of work? I mean, he’s no top prospect but he is an actual 45-grade prospect and the #5 prospect in the Angels’ system per Eric Longenhagen’s last update for them from last November. What kind of incompetence is that?
Then, they throw in the towel and have Kevin Newman pitch the last THREE innings of what was then a 10-1 game with 3 more chances to score runs? I get it that the win probability was low but come on, that’s just ugly giving up that early.
It just never stops amazing me how poorly run the Angels and Rockies are. The Pirates and Marlins are just cheap but the Angels and Rockies are just incompetent.
(Also, the Rangers had Ezekiel Duran pitch the 9th. So both teams ran a position player out there to pitch. That has to be super rare for a 9 inning game. . .)