We’re over halfway through the season and have entered the prime trading season, with many deadlines coming at the end of July. This means teams that are contending but not cruising, will likely need to make some moves to address their deficiencies by (hopefully) moving their surpluses.

Last time out, we took a look at some starting pitchers who’ve gotten a majority of their value from ERAs that might not be sustainable. Now let’s switch over to the hitters and look at some players whose value could take a hit if they see their batting average swoon in the second half.

Just like with the pitchers, this isn’t about saying that Player X will be worse at baseball in the second half. This is about identifying who has put most of their eggs in one basket and whether you need to bake in some regression for the rest of the way. Whether it’s to make a trade or just adjust your categorical expectations, the more you know, the better you can prepare. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re over halfway through the season and have entered the prime trading season, with many deadlines coming at the end of July. Which means teams that are contending but not cruising, will likely need to make some moves to address their deficiencies by (hopefully) moving their surpluses.

Whether you’re one of the lucky ones who are stacked on pitching and need to trade for an impact bat, or someone running the opposite, you need to know who to trade, who to fade, and who to trade for. Because is there really anything worse than trading away someone who blows up, or trading for someone who blows up your team? It’s really just the worst.

With that in mind, let’s look at starting pitchers who have significant differences between their ERA and their ERA evaluators. This way we can see who could be the most vulnerable to a rising ERA and whether their overall value could take the hit. This isn’t necessarily about saying that Player X is going to be worse at baseball in the second half, it’s about baking in regression to your expectations for the rest of the year. Read the rest of this entry »

Is there really anything worse than having to chase saves? Sure, chasing steals isn’t fun either but given that saves can often be as much about opportunity as talent, spending FAAB to play a weekly carnival game of Whack-a-Closer is extra annoying. So, let’s take a break from the save race and talk about some non-closing (NC) relievers that can return overall value even if they’re not going to supply much of the glamour stat that everyone desires.

Using NC relievers isn’t going to be for everyone and a lot of that will depend on your current team construction and categorical goals. For example, if your pitching scores are fine with ratios but lacking in the counting (wins, strikeouts, saves) stats, you’re probably going to be better served by using lesser starters, more often. Or, maybe you’re like me and due to poor performances and/or injuries have had to punt ratios in favor of throwing any (and every) starter against the wall.

However, some lucky ducks are tracking pretty with their counting stats but maybe need some ratio help. Or perhaps you’re ahead of the game enough to shine up your ratios but not so much ahead that you can afford to do so while letting your attention to wins and strikeouts lapse. For those traveling this middle-ish path, rotating (or holding) NC relievers can offer the best of both worlds. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve all heard about Sisyphus, the wicked trickster, and tyrant who first angered the Greek gods with his general bad deeds but then really got on their naughty list by cheating his punishment of death, not once but twice. These misdeeds earned the former king not just a place in the bad part of town underground but an extra special sort of eternal torture forever tasked to roll a boulder up a mountain. But upon nearing the summit, the boulder would roll right back down from whence it came and Sisyphus would have to start all over.

This seems like a pretty terrible way to spend eternity but that’s what always comes to mind whenever I think about the fantasy power of pitchers with low strikeout rates. Sure, you can make your way up the value mountain while pushing a low K%, but the lower that rate, the steeper things get.

Returning good fantasy value with a low strikeout rate isn’t impossible but it’s certainly a hard knock life. Maybe “hard” is the wrong word. How about less predictable? When you roll with a low-K% pitcher, you simply need a lot of other things to go right in categories that are less in a pitcher’s control. Read the rest of this entry »

Before the gates coming crashing down upon my head, let’s make things crystal from jump street. I’m not a mathematician and I’m certainly not a statistician. I don’t even pretend to be one in my Twitter bio. Me? I’m just a fantasy hack with a penchant for Ockham.

Do you know who doesn’t have said penchant? Major League Baseball and Commissioner Rob Manfred. If they did, they wouldn’t have detailed how enforcement will work in regards to pitchers using grip enhancers in a memo with a Florida-sized sea of gray areas. If they were being honest about their intentions and goals, the solution would be simple (and obvious). Read the rest of this entry »

Last time out we took a look at which teams you should attack when going fishing for streams, targeting favorable splits, and identifying any offenses carrying under-the-radar weaknesses. But this time we travel to the mirror dimension, looking for the teams that should make your oh-no-no list when looking for streams.

Remember, just because a team is bad, in general, doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad in every specificity. Bad teams can look good in some spots, and good teams can have exploitable weaknesses.

If you don’t believe me, just ask the Rays, who strike out against right-handers at comparable rates to the Tigers and Rangers. Or the Orioles, who are last in run value (per 100 pitches) versus RHP but are the best in baseball versus LHP. Read the rest of this entry »

Having officially gotten more regular-season baseball than we got in 2020, let’s check in on some team offensive trends. At least those trending poorly. Because while it’s still less than three months of baseball, it’s enough to start getting a handle on which teams you should exploit for streaming gains, and who you should avoid.

Matchups are obviously king in streaming but not all bad teams are the same. At least, not in terms of how they fare against each hand, both in general performance and strikeout tendencies. The Baltimore Orioles have the worst record in baseball, as well as the worst run value (per 100 pitches) against right-handed pitchers. However, you play a dangerous game when streaming a leftie against the Orioles, as their 1.29 RV/100 and .353 wOBA vs LHP are the highest in baseball, while their 20.4% K% is beaten only by the 16.8% K% of Houston.

Using Run Value (per 100 pitches), wOBA, xwOBA, and K%, we’ll see which teams currently look like the juiciest targets when considering a stream and then take a look at some of their matchups with starters who are currently rostered less than 50% in Yahoo leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s talk about the hard stuff. Fastballs, that is. Because what was true 50 years ago, is still true today. But the splendid one put it best:

“You have to hit the fastball to play in the big leagues.”

– Ted Williams

If you want to have any chance against the whiffle ball cheese currently being thrown by the modern game’s spin-rate savants, you’ll first have to deal with the unprecedented amount of fire in the velocity game. Simply put, if you can’t smoke the heaters, good luck with all of the rest.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the batters having the most success against four-seamers and sinkers in 2021, and what it might mean for the rest of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to fans. It is a dimension as vast as the width of two balls and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and dark, between strike and ball, and lies between the pit of a batter’s fear and the summit of his bat’s knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Shadow Zone.

The entire zone can be divided into four attack zones, starting at the heart, and moving out to the shadow zone (the width of a ball on the inside and outside of the strike zone), which is followed by the chase and waste zones.

We’ll be focusing on the shadow zone, home of pitcher’s pitches and balls framed to strikes, looking first at the players who are offering at these borderline pitches the least in 2021. However, swinging less at shadow pitches doesn’t guarantee success and some hitters are better served by being more aggressive. Like most things, it’s a case-by-case situation. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now halfway through May and there are plenty of high-investment hitters who continue to struggle. I’m generally shy about moving on from hitters early but you can also only be dragged down for so long before doing something. Whether that means benching, trading, or just cutting.

With that in mind, let’s look at five struggling hitters who were taken in the first 10 rounds and were expected to be stalwart starters in 2021 but have instead fallen flat.

*Any mentioned values are calculated using the FanGraphs auction calculator, using a 5×5, 12-team league (one catcher) setup. Read the rest of this entry »