Today, I continue my Pod Projections vs Steamer battle reviews, this time moving along to stolen bases. Similarly to the way I compared our home run forecasts, I calculated a PA/SB rate first and then extrapolated that projection over 650 plate appearances, so we’re only comparing stolen base projections and playing time forecasts don’t factor in. We’ll start with the stolen base upside guys. For some context, the league stole the fewer bases per 650 plate appearances since…1971! So hitting on the upside guys is going to be a lot tougher than hitting the downside guys.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed my Pod vs Steamer home run upside list results. Today, let’s now review my Pod vs Steamer home run downside list. As a reminder, the comparisons are AB/HR ratio and the table displays the implied home run totals over 600 at-bats. So the actual HR column isn’t necessarily what the player hit, but what his 600 at-bat pace actually was in order to truly compare home run rate projections without playing time factoring in.

Read the rest of this entry »

In mid-March, I listed and discussed the 10 hitters my Pod Projections forecasted for more home runs per 600 at-bats than Steamer. All that means is that I calculated the player’s projected AB/HR ratio from both systems and then extrapolated those projections over 600 at-bats, so I’m isolating the home run rate skill and keeping playing time constant. Let’s dive into the results.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I reviewed my imaginary cheapie NFBC pitching rosters, including the $9 staff, and the staff composed of pitchers not even bought in auctions. Today, let’s now review the incredible $244 staff I built.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I reviewed my imaginary cheapie NFBC hitting rosters, including the $14 offense, and the offense composed of hitters not even bought in auctions. Today, let’s now review the incredible $251 offense I built. This exercise was probably even harder, as it’s more difficult to differentiate between top three round values than it is to pick out the best of the worst. Let’s see how this roster ended up performing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed my $9 NFBC pitching staff. Today, it’s time to review the pitching staff I constructed from only pitchers who failed to be rostered in NFBC auctions during the month of February.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I reviewed two fun exercises using the NFBC average auction values (AAV) from early March to build various imaginary offensive rosters, including a $14 squad composed solely of $1 players, and a team constructed from hitters that weren’t even rostered. Today, let’s flip to my various pitching staffs, beginning with the $9 group composed of all dollar guys.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed the thrilling $14 offense I built with all hitters that averaged just $1 in auction cost in NFBC leagues as of the beginning of March. Today, I review an even tougher challenge — an offense composed solely of hitters who weren’t purchased at all in the seven auctions that occurred in the month of Feb.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the more enjoyable exercises I performed before this season was building a $14 NFBC offense, using the contests’ average auction values. The idea was to choose from the 59 hitters that averaged $1 in cost and put together an entire legal offense, filling each required slot. Let’s see how this squad performed, with final FanGraphs calculated auction values included.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I reviewed the eight hitters on my 2021 potential HR/FB rate surger list. Today, let’s once again rely on my xHR/FB rate equation to review my preseason potential HR/FB rate decliners list.

Read the rest of this entry »