2021 Pod vs Steamer — SB Downside, A Review

Yesterday, I compared my Pod Projections in the stolen base category to Steamer and reviewed the five hitters I forecasted for a meaningfully higher stolen base total. Today, let’s now review the hitters I projected for fewer stolen bases than Steamer over a 650 plate appearance pace. As a reminder, stolen bases were down this year, so theoretically it should have been easier to hit on more of the downside guys.

Ehh, this small sample size of eight hitters didn’t exactly turn out how I hoped, as the Pod and Steamer projections split the wins down the middle at four apiece. This time, nearly every hitter actually earned regular playing time, unlike most of my other lists where poor play or injury limited plate appearances.

In 2020, Robbie Grossman suddenly decided to become a basestealer, stealing eight in just 192 plate appearances. This was as a 30 year old, so it’s unlikely he became faster. Naturally, I refuses to believe this was anything more than a small sample size fluke. Oops, I was very wrong, and even Steamer underestimated what Grossman has become. I have no idea why he suddenly has decided to steal bases and also have no idea if we should now consider him a double digit thief, until he isn’t anymore. I’ll probably play conservative again as you don’t normally see early 30s guys suddenly become basestealers and remain so for several years after.

I was miffed as to why Steamer had projected Andrew Vaughn to steal nearly seven bases over a 650 PA pace considering he had only only even attempted one steal during his short minor league career and was caught on it. He also graded out as having just 30 speed. He did end up attempting two steals and succeeding once, so he beat my zero steal projection, but still was far closer to my pessimistic number than Steamer’s “where did that come from?!” bullish total.

Amed Rosario finished in the middle of our forecasts, but a bit closer to mine. What’s bizarre is that he failed to swipe a single base and attempted just one steal in 2020. Even with an OBP well above my projection, thanks to a career high BABIP, Rosario disappointed in the steals department, but continues to show enough power and speed to appeal to fantasy owners.

Rougned Odor was the only member of this list that didn’t play regularly for most of the year. After failing to steal a base in 2020, he went another 361 PAs without stealing one, meaning he has essentially played a full season without stealing a base since 2020. I’m not sure if fantasy owners should care though as his days of playing regularly might be over, while his poor second base defense and recent sub-.300 wOBA means even his opportunities as a bench player could be limited moving forward.

Cedric Mullins was one of the season’s biggest fantasy surprises and most profitable buys. He exceeded both of our stolen base projections, mostly because of the big spike in OBP. Obviously, with so many more opportunities to steal a base than expected, his stolen base total ended up well above forecasted. He’ll be an interesting 2022 forecast because none of his outward metrics suggest a whole lot of luck was involved. But given his short history and middling minor league stats, it’s a bit harder to fully buy into this breakout.

Steamer almost perfectly nailed Bo Bichette’s stolen base total. It’s funny because Bichette also appeared on my home run upside list, and I almost nailed that one. So Steamer was too pessimistic on his homers, while I was too pessimistic on his steals. I had figured Bichette’s decline in speed in 2020 and expectation of being more of a middle-of-the-order hitter with growing power would reduce his steal attempts, but I was wrong. Perhaps I was a year or two too early though.

Steamer was highest on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s OBP, and while I don’t have their original projection, his OBP did decline from 2020, so I’m guessing my OBP forecast ended up being closer. So that means that Falefa really revved up his attempts vs expectations if he got on base less often. I figured his 2020 was the fluke, but it seems he wants to keep running. While he no longer has catcher eligibility, he does have shortstop and third base eligibility, so his profile fits in with middle infielders, though would make for an odd fit at corner, as you’ll be up on steals, but really need to make up for the low power.

I have been expecting Wil Myers’ steals to odrop off for a while now given his age and power-driven profile, and it has, beginning in 2020. Steamer had forecasted more of a bounceback than I did, but I think this is the level he sticks at for now.