Early in the season when we have a limited sample size to work with, I like to investigate those metrics that stabilize the quickest. Fastball velocity is one of those metrics. Since velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate, a spike in velocity might hint at a strikeout rate surge, and perhaps a breakout. I originally identified six starting pitchers that enjoyed a velocity bump in their first start versus their 2021 marks. Let’s see if they were able to maintain those increases over the rest of the season.

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In early April, I discussed three less heralded prospects that entered the season with starting jobs and used bulleted lists to share what I liked and didn’t like about each rookie. Let’s now review my likes and dislikes versus what actually transpired. Below each of my original bullet points will be an update in italics describing what ended up happening that relates to that bullet point.

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Let’s finish my review of my imaginary NFBC rosters with a team of hitters that weren’t purchased in a single NFBC auction in March. I had 110 players to choose from to build this elite squad. Let’s find out how they performed!

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Last Thursday, I reviewed my $14 NFBC offense. As expected, it didn’t turn out very good, but hidden within the squad was a couple of gems that yielded a nice profit for their owners. Let’s now shift over to pitching. In addition to my cheapie offense, I also drafted a $9 pitching staff. As I did during my hitter review, I’ll repost the group’s projections first, based on ATC pre-season forecasts. Then I’ll post another table displaying how they actually performed, and what they earned in a standard 15-team league.

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At the end of March, I drafted a $14 offense using NFBC average auction values, selecting 14 hitters that all averaged a $1 cost. It’s a fun little exercise each year with the hope that I end up highlighting some sleepers and some of them end up turning a nice profit. Let’s find out how this cheapie squad did.

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Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.

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Let’s get back to reviewing the preseason Pod Projection writeups I shared. Today, I’ll review Ketel Marte, who enjoyed a breakout 2019, disappointed during the short 2020 season, and then rebounded nicely in 2021 during an injury plagued year. Refresh your memory by rereading my original breakdown.

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Last week, I reviewed six starting pitchers whose ERA Pod Projections were significantly lower than their Steamer projections. Now let’s flip to the list of pitchers I highlighted as having ERA downside.

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Let’s continue reviewing the results of my Pod vs Steamer series by switching over to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll review my list of six ERA upside guys, or those whose Pod Projections were significantly better than their Steamer forecasts. Leaguewide starting pitcher ERA was at its lowest since 2014, so a list of pitchers with ERA upside should look better.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the list of hitters I had highlighted whose Pod Projections suggested stolen base upside compared with Steamer projections. Now, it’s time to review the list of stolen base downside guys, or those whose Pod Projections called for far fewer steals per 650 PA than Steamer.

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