Just as important as monitoring fastball velocities for spikes to identify potential breakouts, velocity declines might hint at potential injury and/or a drop in performance. So let’s now review the six pitchers who experienced early season velocity declines versus 2021 and find out if their velocities rebounded.
Aside from discussing starting pitcher fastball velocity surgers at the beginning of the season, I also did the same for relief pitchers. In mono league formats, relievers could generate positive value, even without recording any saves, with strong ratios, and a high strikeout rate. Identifying breakouts early might allow you to pick up a reliever for free and shield a pitcher slot from ratio damage by a weak starter.
Let’s continue reviewing how the first start fastball velocity surgers performed over the rest of the season. Did they maintain their velocity spikes and post a higher strikeout rate or did their gains fade?
Early in the season when we have a limited sample size to work with, I like to investigate those metrics that stabilize the quickest. Fastball velocity is one of those metrics. Since velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate, a spike in velocity might hint at a strikeout rate surge, and perhaps a breakout. I originally identified six starting pitchers that enjoyed a velocity bump in their first start versus their 2021 marks. Let’s see if they were able to maintain those increases over the rest of the season.
In early April, I discussed three less heralded prospects that entered the season with starting jobs and used bulleted lists to share what I liked and didn’t like about each rookie. Let’s now review my likes and dislikes versus what actually transpired. Below each of my original bullet points will be an update in italics describing what ended up happening that relates to that bullet point.
Let’s finish my review of my imaginary NFBC rosters with a team of hitters that weren’t purchased in a single NFBC auction in March. I had 110 players to choose from to build this elite squad. Let’s find out how they performed!
Last Thursday, I reviewed my $14 NFBC offense. As expected, it didn’t turn out very good, but hidden within the squad was a couple of gems that yielded a nice profit for their owners. Let’s now shift over to pitching. In addition to my cheapie offense, I also drafted a $9 pitching staff. As I did during my hitter review, I’ll repost the group’s projections first, based on ATC pre-season forecasts. Then I’ll post another table displaying how they actually performed, and what they earned in a standard 15-team league.
At the end of March, I drafted a $14 offense using NFBC average auction values, selecting 14 hitters that all averaged a $1 cost. It’s a fun little exercise each year with the hope that I end up highlighting some sleepers and some of them end up turning a nice profit. Let’s find out how this cheapie squad did.
Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.
Let’s get back to reviewing the preseason Pod Projection writeups I shared. Today, I’ll review Ketel Marte, who enjoyed a breakout 2019, disappointed during the short 2020 season, and then rebounded nicely in 2021 during an injury plagued year. Refresh your memory by rereading my original breakdown.
