Let’s finish up the week with one final look at the wackiest starting pitcher metric levels. Today, it’s all about the batted ball type distribution. Think grounders, liners, etc. Batted ball profile has a dramatic impact on performance, so it’s important to monitor, especially if a pitcher suddenly transforms into an extreme ground ball or fly ball pitcher.
Yesterday, I shared our first set of weird and wonderful metrics for starting pitchers, digging into SwStk% and Hard%. Today, let’s continue the fun with some additional metrics.
Let’s start talking pitchers. It’s time to move on to the wackiness that is starting pitcher metrics. So who is part of the weird and the wonderful as April’s books have closed? Let’s find out.
There are still a number of hitting metrics to review the extreme cases, so let’s continue the weird and the wonderful on the batting side before moving over to the pitching side.
Today is Statcast day, so I’ll review hitters at the extremes of the various Statcast metrics we share on FanGraphs.
Yesterday, I reviewed some of the early 2023 outliers in various hitting metrics. Since there are so many metrics, we’ll continue on the fun. Yesterday, the focus was on strikeout and walk rates. Let’s now flip over to batted ball metrics.
In past years, I have reviewed some of the most extreme performers in various categories after around a week of play. Though not necessarily actionable, it was fun to see the players and stats that stood at the top and bottom of the leaderboards. It’s a bit later than I have normally reviewed the weird and the wonderful historically, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t any wackiness going on! So let’s review some of the outliers a couple of weeks into the season.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed the starting pitchers with at least 20 IP this season and last who have raised their SwStk% marks most. Today, let’s now look at the decliners, the pitchers who have suffered the largest SwSk% declines. We’re still in small sample size territory, but such significant declines are still worrisome, especially if paired with a velocity drop.
It’s still quite early to evaluate outcomes like strikeout and walk rates, so let’s stick with underlying drivers of those metrics, like SwStk%. Typically, the higher a pitcher’s SwStk%, the better the pitcher and the lower the ERA, though obviously that’s not going to be the case 100% of the time since we’re ignoring walk rate. But SwStk% gains are almost always a good thing, as that should result in a higher strikeout rate, which means fewer balls in play and therefore fewer hits allowed. So let’s dig into the starting pitchers (with at least 20 innings pitched both this season and last season) that have raised their SwStk% most.
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks so far, which included a number of names that would make for good trade targets. Today, let’s flip over to the overperformers. I hesitate to make a blanket statement that these guys should be sold high if possible, as each deserves their own evaluation. So let’s dive in.
We’re about two and a half weeks into the season, which means impatient fantasy owners are going to start cutting or selling low on their slow starting hitters. Before making such rash decisions, it pays to check out the hitter’s Statcast xMetrics. While the metrics have their flaws, it’s the best data we currently have to determine a hitter’s expected performance given their actual batted balls. So let’s review the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks. This could be your early trade target list if you don’t own these names, and if you do own them, perhaps it’s a reminder to hold strong.
