It’s been quite a year for rookies, with a number of them becoming valuable fantasy assets. Today, let’s focus on three recent hitter callups and decide if any of them are going to move into that group as well.
Yesterday, I discussed six fantasy relevant starting pitchers who have most underperformed their SIERA marks. Now let’s flip over to the overperformers.
Two months into the season is a good time to evaluate your team, its strengths and weaknesses. You usually can never have enough pitching, as there’s always someone who gets injured, suddenly loses velocity or effectiveness, and then you’re scrambling. So let’s review the starting pitchers that have underperformed their SIERA marks the most so far. This could be a good target list to trade for that includes pitchers that shouldn’t cost much to acquire.
Yesterday, I shared and discussed six starting pitchers who have improved their average exit velocity (EV) against the most compared to 2022. While the correlation isn’t strong, there definitely is a positive correlation between EV and BABIP, whereby the higher the EV allowed, the higher the BABIP, and vice versa. Let’s now flip to the pitchers who have allowed a higher average EV this year.
Since 2015, there’s been a small, but positive correlation (about 0.19) between average exit velocity (EV) against and BABIP. In other words, the higher the EV allowed, the higher the BABIP. Of course, there are many other factors involved, as the correlation isn’t very high, but it’s there. And all else equal, a pitcher does desire to induce soft contact versus hard. So let’s find out which starting pitchers have reduced their average EV marks the most compared to last season.
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose fly ball Hard% has increased the most compared to last year. Now let’s check in on the decliners.
Since 2012, there has been a strong correlation of 0.69 between a hitter’s HR/FB rate and their Hard%. That passes the sniff test because obviously if all else is equal, a harder hit ball is going to travel further. It’s not even higher because it’s missing both launch angle (that, combined with exit velocity, are the components of Statcast’s Barrel%, which also correlates strongly with HR/FB) and horizontal direction (pulled, straightaway, oppo). But it works as a quick shortcut to determine who might be deserving of big power and who isn’t. So let’s check in on the Hard% gainers compared to last season to find out whose power has truly increased.
Last week, I reviewed the latest group of xwOBA underperformers. Let’s now shift to the overperformers. The knee-jerk reaction to this group is that if they fail to improve their underlying skills the rest of the way, their wOBA is in danger of tumbling. However, some guys have consistently overperformed their xwOBA marks throughout their careers, suggesting they are doing something not being captured by the equation. So I’ll check in on each player’s history as well to determine if this might be the case for any of these names.
It’s been about a month and a week since I last reviewed the hitter xwOBA underperformers, so let’s get back to it. If you’re looking for the quickest way to identify a list of trade targets, this may be where you start. As a reminder, xwOBA isn’t perfect, so I do like to peruse the hitter’s xwOBA vs wOBA history to see whether he has been a consistent underperformer, which might suggest the formula is missing something the hitter is or isn’t doing that is legitimately dragging down his performance.
Yesterday, I reviewed and discussed the starting pitchers who have raised their SwStk% marks the most compared to 2022. Now let’s flip to the pitchers whose SwStk% marks have declined most. All else being equal, a lower rate of whiffs should result in a low strikeout rate and a higher ERA.
