2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer RBI Forecasts, Part 2, A Review
October 19, 2023
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters that THE BAT X was most bullish on for RBI compared to Steamer. Let’s now flip over to Steamer’s RBI favorites.
Author Archive
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer RBI Forecasts, Part 1, A Review
October 18, 2023
Today, we transition our 2023 projection showdown review to runs batted in. This is a fun one to look at because lineup spot (and obviously the strength of the hitters ahead of the player in question) dramatically influences RBI projections. So I’m always curious how a system forecasts a player’s lineup spot and whether that forecasted spot changes as we head into opening day. A system can’t always assume a hitter will hit in the same spot as the previous year, so there has to be some sort of awareness of where the hitter is hitting during spring training and adjustments made if necessary. Sometimes we see a speedy guy with a mediocre OBP flip-flop between leading off and hitting ninth and where he ultimately ends up will influence all his counting stats. As a result, it is imperative that a computer projection system knows where a hitter is expected to hit in the lineup.
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Batting Average Forecasts, Part 2, A Review
October 17, 2023
Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT X batting average favorites, as part of my recap of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting the system against Steamer in various fantasy categories. THE BAT X was closer for five of six players in which it was most bullish on. Let’s now check in on the hitters Steamer was most optimistic on for batting average compared to THE BAT X.
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Batting Average Forecasts, Part 1, A Review
October 16, 2023
Let’s continue on reviewing the 2023 projection showdown series, pitting THE BAT X projections against the Steamer forecast in various statistical categories. Today, we’ll move on to batting average. Batting average projections are tough as they rely heavily on BABIP, which is driven a great deal by the whims of lady luck. So over a small sample of players, the system that proved closer here isn’t necessarily better at projecting batting average. So that’s the caveat. With that out of the way, let’s get to the players that THE BAT X was projecting for a significantly higher batting average than Steamer and find out which system ended up closer.
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Stolen Base Forecasts, Part 1, A Review
October 12, 2023
Yesterday, I reviewed the five hitters THE BAT X was most bullish on for stolen bases compared to Steamer projections. Now let’s flip over to Steamer’s favorites. As a reminder, this exercise isn’t as enlightening as the exercises in the various other categories I hosted a showdown for. That’s because leaguewide stolen bases were up 41% compared to the 2022 season, so the typical stolen base forecast is going to be lower than the actual total. Let’s see if that means that Steamer forecasts proved closer here more often, just as THE BAT X took four of five wins yesterday.
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Stolen Base Forecasts, Part 1, A Review
October 11, 2023
Let’s continue reviewing the results of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X projections against Steamer forecasts. Today we move on to stolen bases. The various rule changes implemented for this season helped increase leaguewide stolen bases by a whopping 41%. So, whichever system was more bullish on any particular player’s stolen bases is far more likely to have been proven closer as a result. Let’s see if that’s the case here. We start with THE BAT X’s stolen base favorites. Did their projections for these players prove closer in a clean sweep and will Steamer show the same results tomorrow? Let’s find out!
2023 Tout Wars AL Only Review — How’d I Manage 3rd Place?!
October 10, 2023
My 11th season as an AL Tout Wars participant has concluded and it was once again an extremely frustrating season. I knew that my auction resulted in a high risk/high reward roster, but not only did my high risk guys not work out, many others failed to as well. For those of you who want to refresh your memories with some background information on my auction, check out my initial recap. Let’s start with the final standings.
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Home Run Forecasts, Part 2, A Review
October 9, 2023
Last week, I began reviewing my 2023 Projection Showdown series, which pitted THE BAT X against Steamer in various hitting categories. I started by reviewing home run forecasts that THE BAT X was most bullish on compared to Steamer. Let’s now review the hitters that Steamer was most bullish on compared to THE BAT X in home runs over a 600 at-bat constant projection.
2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Home Run Forecasts, Part 1, A Review
October 5, 2023
Now that the regular season has ended, it’s recap time! Over the next couple of weeks (months?), I’ll be reviewing all my preseason articles. I want to always be held accountable for the advice I provide, but also it’s fun to find out what actually happened and if I was right. We’ll start with the first in my new series this year, the 2023 Projection Showdown, which pitted THE BAT X against Steamer in various hitting categories. We begin with the first category of home runs. In part 1, I identified the hitters who THE BAT X projected for a higher 600 at-bat home run pace than Steamer. Let’s find out which projection system proved closer.
Poll 2023: Which Group of Hitters Performs Better? A Review
October 4, 2023
In addition to my starting pitcher poll comparing 1st and 2nd half SIERA marks, I also polled you fine readers during the all-star break about hitters. The hitter poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into.