How often does the hotshot rookie generate tons of hype, just to disappoint fantasy owners who expected the player to be a force from the get-go? It seemingly happens all the time. Owners then give up rather quickly on said player and move onto the next big thing. And that’s exactly when the former top prospect breaks out. It’s precisely why the post-hype sleeper term was coined to begin with. Will Xander Bogaerts follow this path?
The Javier Baez era has begun. Perhaps it did so a bit sooner than most had anticipated. Baez came up as a shortstop, but someone named Starlin Castro had solidified himself at the position in Cubby Land. So in 2014, Baez was pushed over to second base to accelerate his path to the Majors. He had just defensive wiz Darwin Barney in his way there, so it was clearly the path with the least resistance.
Today we move to the last position on the infield, shortstop. So as usual, it’s time for me to review my preseason Pod’s Picks. As a reminder, I compared my rankings to the three other rankers and categorized those players whose rankings differed most as players I am apparently most bullish and bearish on.
Another year older and another year in which Adrian Beltre has simply refused to age. Hitters in their mid-30s aren’t supposed to perform so consistently well. They are supposed to decline. But Beltre has failed to receive the memo. As a result, he finished fourth in value among third basemen this year.
Remember when Mike Moustakas tore it up during this year’s spring training? He batted .429, which ranked third among all spring trainers, reached based at a .522 clip, good for second place, and slugged .768, ranking him fifth. Combined, he finished third in OPS. Not surprisingly, that performance led fantasy owners to dream of what could be and fueled lots of sleeper talk.
How could a player be a bust, but at the same time not be a bust? Well let’s find out. Because that’s exactly how Evan Longoria’s 2014 performance could be described. Depending on which statistics you choose to focus on, and of course whether or not you’re a fantasy player (and since you’re reading this in late October, you’re most definitely a fantasy player), your perception of Longoria’s season could differ wildly.
It’s third base week here at beautiful RotoGraphs headquarters, so let’s move along to recapping my preseason Pod’s Picks at the position. As a reminder, I compared my preseason rankings with the consensus of the other three RotoGraphs rankings and discussed those whose rankings differed most. Refresh your memory by reading up on my initial thoughts.
Since his 2007 semi-breakout performance, Aaron Hill has been an enigma. In fact, he’s run the gamut from being really good, mediocre and bad from a fantasy perspective over those years. Unfortunately, Hill owners got the bad version this year, as he ranked just 17th in earnings among second basemen. Since it would be fun and it’s in the name of this site after all, let’s depict his various performance metrics in graphical form since his 2005 debut.
Since his 2009 breakout, Ben Zobrist has been a consistent all-around fantasy contributor, with his blend of power and speed. But the first chinks in the armor started to show in 2013. After hitting 20+ homers in three of his previous four seasons, he knocked just 12 out of the park. And after attempting at least 23 steals each season, he made just 14 attempts. Unfortunately, he failed to bounce back this year and posted a nearly identical season, just reaching double digits in both homers and steals. Does this mark the end of the Zorilla’s jungle rein or is there one last rebound in his future?
It’s not often that a player we failed to even rank in the preseason finishes third in overall value at his position. But that’s exactly what Dee Gordon did, earning the third highest dollar value among second basemen this year. If someone told you that Gordon would earn nearly $3 more than Robinson Cano this year before the season began, you would have laughed in his face. But maybe it shouldn’t have been so shocking.
