Reviewing 2014 Pod’s Picks: Shortstop

Today we move to the last position on the infield, shortstop. So as usual, it’s time for me to review my preseason Pod’s Picks. As a reminder, I compared my rankings to the three other rankers and categorized those players whose rankings differed most as players I am apparently most bullish and bearish on.

Bullish

Asdrubal Cabrera

My Preseason Rank: 12 | Preseason Consensus: 16 | Actual Rank: 11

After his 2011 breakout, Cabrera has predictably regressed, but he has established a consistent power baseline that remains well above his pre-2011 levels. I thought his power would increase from 2013 and his BABIP would rebound, which would drive a jump in batting average. None of those things happened. In fact, he actually performed nearly identically from last year, yet his end of season earnings by about $7.50! He ranked just 15th last year with a very similar fantasy line. It just goes to show you how weak the shortstop crop was this season. His increasing fly ball rate makes it difficult to project a full batting average rebound, but I still think he should hit above .250 next year.

Closer Ranking: Me

Andrelton Simmons

My Preseason Rank: 11 | Preseason Consensus: 14 | Actual Rank: 22

Oyyy. Simmons did what fantasy owners dread — become a zero-category asset. Both his fly ball and HR/FB rates plummeted, which resulted in 10 fewer homers and caused his ISO to drop below .100. And he continues to be clueless on the basepaths, getting caught stealing more often than he was successful. Last year he had a serious pop-up problem which could explain his low BABIP. This year, however, his IFFB% was around the league average and he hit significantly more grounders — things that should benefit his BABIP. Yet, his BABIP barely improved. He should be better next year, but there’s not a whole lot of fantasy upside if we can’t bank on much speed.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Bearish

Erick Aybar

My Preseason Rank: 19 | Preseason Consensus: 15 | Actual Rank: 7

Aybar improved slightly across the board from 2013, but it was enough to vault him from 13th to seventh in earnings from last season. Not a whole lot to discuss here, at this point, we know what we’re going to get. Just like I mentioned above, his top 10 rank is more a function of the weak shortstop group than his actual performance.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Xander Bogaerts

My Preseason Rank: 15 | Preseason Consensus: 12 | Actual Rank: 17

It’s usually a winning proposition to be more bearish about a hotshot rookie. While Bogaerts showed a broad swath of skills in the minors that hint at a very promising future, his performance was just very good, rather than spectacular. So it should have been no surprise that he didn’t immediately dominate at the Major League level. Most disconcerting was his plate discipline metrics. He walked at 10%+ rates in the high minors, but just 6.6% of the time this year with the Red Sox. He also displayed limited power and ranked just 222nd in batted ball distance. He also performed poorly defensively by UZR, so it was a pretty disappointing year all around. He’ll be a better pick next year with a better chance to earn a profit.

Closer Ranking: Me

Alexei Ramirez

My Preseason Rank: 14 | Preseason Consensus: 11 | Actual Rank: 3

Wow. After his HR/FB rate fell for three straight seasons, Ramirez rediscovered his power stroke and combined that with his new found willingness to steal bases. Interestingly, his batted ball distance didn’t even budge. He posted almost the exact same mark as 2013 and ranked just 263rd in baseball. So I would be hesitant to proclaim that last year was the fluke and this year represents the real Ramirez. And since he is now 33, you have to assume that his speed will begin to wane. Remember, he stole just 47 bases over the first four seasons of his career, but 71 over these past three. That’s not the type of trend we usually see. Expect regression across the board next year.

Closer Ranking: Consensus

Final Tally:
Me: 2
Consensus: 3