Adrian Beltre Refuses to Age
Another year older and another year in which Adrian Beltre has simply refused to age. Hitters in their mid-30s aren’t supposed to perform so consistently well. They are supposed to decline. But Beltre has failed to receive the memo. As a result, he finished fourth in value among third basemen this year.
You want consistent? Check out his wOBA over the past four seasons, and remember, these all took place after the age of 30.
That’s pretty crazy. Beltre continues to make excellent contact, posting strikeout rates in the low double digits and a SwStk% no higher than 8.8% every season since 2010. He’s also coming off a season in which he hit the fewest pop-ups of his entire career — just four. He had never hit fewer than 15 previously. And his walk rate is even on a three year rise! There’s precious little that suggests Beltre is feeling the effects of aging.
Except for one thing. His ISO has been on a three season slide. But that’s not entirely fair to use as a sign of decline. His ISO started out on quite the perch, at .265 back in 2011. That’s elite level and almost no one could be expected to sustain such a level.
But this year, his ISO fell to just .168, his lowest mark since his disastrous 2009. His HR/FB rate also dropped to just around the league average and the third lowest mark of his career. His batted ball distance did fall by about five feet, but it remained above the league average and didn’t sound the alarm bells on its own.
Beltre also posted the second lowest fly ball rate of his career. Since 2010, his fly ball rate has generally been around 40%, but it fell to the mid-30% range this year. Is he having a bit more trouble lifting the ball, giving us an early sign of actual, real aging? It’s probable. But given his history, you have to assume at least a slight fly ball rate rebound. And he should be expected to hit for a similar HR/FB rate as well. Though I can’t imagine him reaching 30 homers again, the good contact, fly ball rate and slightly above league average HR/FB rate should all lead to a home run total in the 20-25 range. I don’t foresee another drop-off like he experienced this year.
But to earn the fourth most value among third basemen, Beltre required a career high .345 BABIP. That was probably deserved given his excellent batted ball profile, but is it really sustainable? Likely not. Since we know his power is in decline and now we think his batting average is going to fall, plus he still carries the same risk as any 35-year-old, it would be hard to recommend him at the price he is likely going to fetch on draft day.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
“his disastrous 2009”
The only year I went all in on Beltre. A shot to the nuts in more than one way (if you know anything regarding Beltre about that season).
Don’t forget, Beltre was out for a couple weeks in April with a quad injury. Could that have affected his power?
Maybe Beltre was actually only 8 when he signed with the Dodgers so he’s not even 30 yet.
when Beltre retires I am going to feel like a piece of me died. Growing up in Nashville I’ve never had a MLB team of mine own to root for so I always gravitated to the special talents around the league, Beltre being one of those special talents. From the smack talk with Felix, to the oversensitive reactions to teammates touching his head, to his unreal defense at 3rd, to his refusal to adhere to the traditional aging curve….he has truly been a player I hope to be able to tell my kids about some day. However he is also someone I must forfeit a 3rd-round pick for if I am to retain his services next year. I’m not sure I trust him to warrant that….
As a Sox fan, I loved Beltre’s one season for us (except for the time he broke Jacoby). Previously, I thought he was kind of overrated. I never realized how amazing his defense was, either. Didn’t know anything about his feud with Felix, just Googled it. That makes me love him even more.
If he can keep this up for another couple years, real good chance he ends up with 3,000 hits and 500 HR (didn’t realize how many hits he had!). Really hope he makes it to the Hall and is recognized for how great he is/was.
Beltre will still go in the second round in most leagues and I’ve seen him ranked as the #1 3rd baseman on quite a few lists. 3rd round production should be his floor (barring injury).
I think Beltre still has to put in several more seasons of elite production to make up for those less than elite years in Seattle, but I would bet on him doing it.
If you look at his old-school numbers and his WAR right now, as well as his reputation, he’s looking like a cross between Ron Santo and Brooks Robinson if he retired right at this moment.
It’s hard to imagine the day this guy doesn’t play baseball. He makes Monty Python’s Black Knight look like a wuss when it comes to injuries, so it would have to come from natural aging. I think he has about another 4 years as a good regular (two above average, two below average), kind of like Rickey Henderson’s late career curve.
I’m also a Red Sox fan, and I’d love to get him back. One of my favorite players of all time.
If he had the same numbers he posted in his 30s, in his 20s we would be talking about an all-time great.