Yesterday, I continued batted ball distance week with our first look into the pitching side of the equation. Up until then, we had learned a lot about what a hitter’s distance meant, but essentially nothing about a pitcher’s. We now know that a pitcher’s batted ball distance allowed has a year-to-year correlation less than half that of a hitter’s. But, the correlation was still high enough to be meaningful.
Yesterday, I shared the year-to-year correlations of the three variables that comprise my current xHR/FB rate formula. We now know that batted ball distance is fairly stable each season, which is excellent news for those using it to project future player performance. But what led me to gather the data and perform the calculations was actually a request to look into the pitcher side of the ledger.
Two years ago, Chad Young and I embarked on a journey to analyze a hitter’s average home run and fly ball distance and ultimately formulate an expected HR/FB rate, or xHR/FB. While it wasn’t earth shattering news, we discovered that batted ball distance was highly correlated with HR/FB rate. But that correlation wasn’t nearly high enough to be worth using the equation that included just batted ball distance.
Before the season began, I decided to have a little fun by constructing a fictional $9 pitching staff using the winning bids from the 15 team Tout Wars mixed auction league. I didn’t bother to consider any relievers as speculating on starting pitching breakouts in significantly more exciting. So without further ado, let’s take a look at how my selections panned out, with Zach Sanders’ dollar values indicated. It’s not perfect since his values are based on 12 team leagues, but good enough.
Back in late March of 2012, Matt Swartz helped me conclude that pitcher strikeout and walk rates in spring training actually do matter. We are so used to hearing that spring stats mean nothing, so it was exciting to learn that there was some meaning after all, if you knew where to look. So with that in mind, I identified four starting pitcher breakout candidates based on strikeout rate surges during the spring. Let’s review their performances.
Free Pitcher X! It’s a chant often heard when a pitcher with a starter’s arsenal who was a starter in the minors gets banished to the bullpen. This time around, those chants were directed toward Carlos Martinez. A starter throughout his minor league career, Martinez has started just eight games for the Cardinals, versus 70 relief appearances. It seemingly wasn’t due to the Cardinals organization believing he lacked the stuff or stamina to succeed as a starter. Instead, the team was just overloaded with rotation options and rather than keep Martinez in the minors, why not allow him to contribute at the Major League level? It’s what happened to Trevor Rosenthal, but his bullpen dominance ensured that he has found a home there. With a rotation opening, Martinez now appears to be the favorite for the team’s fifth starter job.
Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball velocity ranked fourth among qualified starters this year. However, it hasn’t actually translated into strikeouts. In fact, the 10 pitchers with the highest velocity this year averaged a 22% strikeout rate. Eovaldi’s 16.6% mark was second worst in the group. Seven of the 10 pitchers sported strikeout rate marks above 20%. So it’s unusual to find a pitcher with such strong velocity to be unable to punch out batters at even a league average clip.
Heading into his second full season, Wily Peralta got some sleeper love and it was easy to see why. A high octane fastball that averaged 94.8 mph last year, ranking fourth in velocity among qualified starters, will always get fantasy owners excited. And although his 2013 strikeout rate was an uninspiring 16.1%, he posted much better marks throughout his minor league career, suggesting potential for upside if he could translate his stuff into results. For those who looked past the inflated ERA and below average control and imagined what could be, you were duly rewarded with a 3.53 ERA and 17 wins.
I have been a Brett Anderson fan since his early minor league days. A pitcher with an extreme ground ball tendency that also has above average strikeout ability and possesses excellent control is a pitcher that will always excite me. Furthermore, that pitcher also made his home in an excellent environment, with his pitcher friendly home park and good defense behind him. Unfortunately, pitching for the Athletics and displaying an intriguing set of skills mattered little when he simply couldn’t stay on the field.
Despite possessing above average fastball velocity, Jordan Zimmermann has generally posted strikeout rates right around the league average. Part of the reason for the disappointing strikeout totals is because he throws his fastball quite frequently. From 2011 to 2013, his fastball usage ranked 29th among 125 qualified starters. We know that the fastball easily sports the lowest SwStk% among all pitch types. So throwing the pitch often is naturally going to result in fewer swings and misses on average.
